Health Epidemics and MSCI World Index Performance 1970-2020

I have written a few articles earlier on pandemics and equity markets which can be found here and here and here. The following chart shows the major health epidemics and the performance of the MSCI World Index since 1970. The index has powered through global health epidemics such as Dengue, Zika Virus, SARS, Swine Flu, etc.

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Source: Cliffwater via Bourbon Financial Management

Tourism as a Percentage of GDP for Select Countries

Tourism is a major industry in many countries. The below chart from OECD shows tourism as a percentage of GDP for select countries. Tourism accounts for 12.5% and 11.8% of the GDP for Portugal and Spain respectively. Other economies with high high dependence on this industry include France, Mexico and Greece. Tourism is 2.8% of the US economy.

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Source: OECD

OECD Countries Ranked in Controlling Coronavirus

Australia is called as The Lucky Country due to all the advantages it has including the abundance of natural resources. In an article today Dr.Shane Oliver at AMP Capital writes on the reasons why Australian stocks are likely to outperform in 2021. One of the reasons he notes is on the success of Australia in controlling the coronavirus.

Below is an excerpt from the article:

First, better virus control

Australia’s success in “controlling” coronavirus continues to stand out globally (touch wood). Comparing OECD countries in how they are managing the coronavirus outbreak (based on new cases per capita, deaths per capita, total cases per capita and testing per capita) Australia ranks first, with NZ 2nd (this has been flipping around) compared to the US at 22nd, Sweden at 28th, Spain at 32nd and France at 36th. See the next table.

Less congested living, better weather, a younger population and luck may have all played a role, but the big driver looks to have been a public health response based on expert medical advice as opposed to bravado and crackpot theories. This has been characterised by rigorous contact tracing, quarantining and timely and targeted distancing and containment measures. Our institutions have been working well together across various levels of government – in contrast to the US where President Trump has contradicted and weakened the message. And the overwhelming majority of Australians have done the right thing.

Source: Still The Lucky Country – five reasons why Australian shares are likely to outperform in the year ahead by Dr.Shane Oliver, AMP Capital

The complete article is worth a read.