The 48 Largest Metropolitan Economies in China

The map below shows the Largest Metropolitan Economies in China 2013-14:

Click to enlarge

Largest Metropolitan Cities in China

According to a report by The Brooking Institution, two-thirds of metro areas in China ranking among the fastest growing group among the 300 largest metropolitan areas worldwide. The GDP of the Chinese metropolitan regions vary widely with Shanghai at $594 billion to Shantou at $39 billion.

The seven largest metro areas comprising of Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Shenzen, Suzhou and Chongqing alone account for 20% of the national economy.

Source: Global Metro Monitor 2014, The Brooking Institution

The Periodic Table of Emerging Markets 2005 To 2014

I posted the Periodic Table of Investment Returns for Commodities for 2015 last month. Here is the chart for Emerging Markets from 2005 to 2014:

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The Periodic Table of Investment Returns for Emerging Markets 2005 to 2014

Source: US Funds

A few observations:

  • The best performing emerging market last year was India with a return of over 29%. This year India’s Sensex is up a decent 5.51% year-to-date.
  • Russia was the worst performer with a loss of over 42%. With Ukraine crisis still ongoing and the Russian economy adversely impacted from lower oil prices its best to avoid Russian stocks this year.
  • Global investors’ attraction towards Brazil has disappeared in the past few years. In 2009, Brazil returned about 145%. Since then it has declined every year except in 2010 when it returned a mere 5%. With Petrobras (PBR) mired in corruption investigations and oil prices remaining low, investors may want to be very cautious of Brazilian stocks this year.

Also checkout: The Periodic Table of Emerging Markets 2004 To 2013

Disclosure: Long PBR

DAX Reaches a New Record High

Germany’s benchmark index DAX reached an all-time record high of 11,158.55 yesterday on intraday basis before closing the day at a record 11,130. The index reached another high on Friday.

In addition to DAX, UK’s FTSE 100 also came close to reaching 6,950 which it first crossed in late 1999. The FTSE has now hit a 15-year high this week. Though it seems like the index is only now recovering all the losses since 1999, in reality the index is up 66% as of Feb 20th if dividends are included in the calculation according to an article in Citywire, UK.

As the economic powerhouse of Europe, it is not surprising to see German stocks are leading the way in Europe.

The following chart shows the yearly performance of DAX for the selected period:

DAX-Index-Return-by-year 1955 to 2012

How to invest in German stocks?

A simple and easy to invest in German stocks is via the iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG) . Another option to is to consider the closed-end fund New Germany Fund Inc. (GF). For investors interested in individual companies, many German ADRs trade on the US markets. A list of German ADRs can be found here.

Disclosure: No Positions

Related:

Here’s what the FTSE 100’s near-record high can teach you about investing, MoneyWeek

Why Sin Stocks Are Good For Investment

The “sin” sector in the equity markets includes companies that operate in businesses such as making and selling liquor, weapons, casinos and cigarettes. These are called “sin” industries for the obvious reason that people engaging such activities as drinking alcohol or gambling are committing sins. These industries tend to have high profit margin and there is money to be made from the actions of the sinners. For example, majority of the people that visit casinos to gamble lose money and these operations exist to simply to extract money from the pockets of gamblers. Hence casinos make huge amounts of profits. States run lotteries are also legally-approved gambling operations to extract money from poor folks in order to do some noble deeds like building a library, build a road, etc. However there is no way to profit from them since states have a monopoly on the lucrative business. Similarly cigarette smoking is an addiction and tobacco firms are able to sell their products to smokers with huge markups and generate solid earnings. Investors willing to invest in these industries have the potential to earn substantial returns since the companies in this sector perform well.

I came across two articles related to investing in the sin sector. From an article by Tom Stevenson of Fidelity Investments, UK:

Does it pay to be a saint or a sinner? Browse the investment bookshelves and you will end up none the wiser. That’s because for every sober-looking volume promoting ethical investing, you’ll find another more interesting-looking book extolling the virtues of vice.

The reality is actually somewhere in between, according to three professors at the London Business School who have crunched the numbers on sin and social responsibility. They conclude that the best returns may well come from seeking out the stock market’s black sheep and bringing them back into the fold.

First, the facts. Sin does pay for two reasons. First, companies operating in the market’s murkier corners – booze, tobacco, guns and gambling – have a steady demand for their products regardless of economic conditions, they tend to be high-margin businesses and they enjoy high barriers to entry. They are profitable and defensive.

Second, the tendency for some investors to shun these businesses on ethical grounds can result in them trading below their intrinsic value. An unpopular investment will tend to offer investors a higher yield – and because income is the principal component of total return over time this can lead to investment success. Even if the stocks the remain at a valuation discount, they will benefit from the compounding of their high dividends.

On tobacco stocks Mr.Stevenson added:

Tobacco illustrates the potential of investing in sin. Prior to the mid-1960s, before smoking became a sin, tobacco stocks underperformed the market. Once the health issues became well-known cigarette companies started to outperform and they have been key components in the portfolios of some of the most successful investors, like Neil Woodford.

Source: Face facts: there’s money in sin, Feb 17, 2015, Fidelity Investments, UK

The Wall Street Journal’s Jason Zweig also wrote an interesting piece on this topic. From the article:

New research indicates that a distaste for “butts, booze, bets and bombs” may depress prices for such stocks in the short run, enabling “sin-vestors” to outperform in the long run. It also suggests that if you seek to beat the market, you should favor whatever is most profoundly unpopular.

A study released this past week by finance researchers Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton of London Business School shows that over the past 115 years, U.S. tobacco stocks returned an average of 14.6% annually, compared with 9.6% for U.S. stocks.

Since such a differential grows powerfully over long periods, $1 invested in tobacco stocks in 1900 would have grown to $6.3 million by the end of 2014; the same $1 in the broader stock market would have grown to $38,255. Similar results have been found world-wide.

“It appears that when the people who abhor such stocks have shunned them, they have depressed the share prices but haven’t managed to destroy the industries,” Prof. Marsh says. “So investors who don’t have the same scruples have been able to pick up [these stocks] at a cheaper price.”

Source: ‘Sin-Vestors’ Can Reap Smoking-Hot Returns, Feb 13, 2015,The Wall Street Journal

Some of the investment opportunities in the sin sector are listed below for further research and analysis:

1.Company:Diageo PLC (DEO)
Current Dividend Yield: 2.90%
Sector: Beverages
Country: UK

2.Company: Heineken NV (HEINY)
Current Dividend Yield: 1.57%
Sector:Beverages
Country: The Netherlands

3.Company:SABMiller PLC (SBMRY)
Current Dividend Yield: 0.92%
Sector:Beverages
Country: UK

4.Company: Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (BUD)
Current Dividend Yield: 2.64%
Sector: Beverages
Country: Belgium

5.Company: British American Tobacco PLC (BTI)
Current Dividend Yield: 4.29%
Sector:Tobacco
Country: UK

6.Company: Imperial Tobacco Group PLC (ITYBY)
Current Dividend Yield: 4.24%
Sector:Tobacco
Country: UK

7.Company: Philip Morris International, Inc. (PM)
Current Dividend Yield: 4.84%
Sector:Tobacco
Country: USA

8.Company:Reynolds American Inc. (RAI)
Current Dividend Yield: 3.68%
Sector:Tobacco
Country: USA

9.Company: General Dynamics Corp (GD)
Current Dividend Yield: 1.78%
Sector: Aerospace & Defense
Country: USA

10.Company: BAE Systems (BAESY)
Current Dividend Yield: 4.08%
Sector: Aerospace
Country:UK

Disclosure: No Positions

ADR Programs: Corporate Actions Update Year-to-date

The following is a list of notable corporate actions on some of the ADR programs as of Feb 20, 2015:

  1. Shandong Luoxin Pharmacy Stock Co. Ltd (SLUXY) changed its name to Shandong Luoxin Pharmaceutical Group Stock Co., Ltd.
  2. Ricoh Company Ltd (RICOY) changed its ratio to 1 Depository Share : 1 Ordinary share from 1 Depository Share : 5 Ordinary share.
  3. Paranapanema S/A (PNPPY) was terminated and ADR holders were paidout a cash of  $ 1.53 per share.
  4. Incitec Pivot Limited(ICPVY) upgraded its ADR from Unsponsored to Sponsored.
  5. Erytech Pharma (EYRYY), a drug company from France started its sponsored ADR program.
  6. Genetic Technologies Limited (GENE) changed its ratio to 1 ADR : 150 Ordinary shares from 1:30 effecting a reverse split.
  7. Consorcio Hogar terminated its Level 1 Sponsored ADR program effective January 22, 2015.
  8. Prime Minerals Limited changed its name to  Covata Ltd.
  9. Incitec Pivot Limited of Australia started a new sponsored level 1 ADR program under the ticker INCZY.
  10. Reed Resources Limited changed its name to Neometals Ltd.
  11. Intelligent Energy Holdings plc started a new sponsored level 1 ADR program under the ticker INGYY.
  12. Sopheon plc ADR program was terminated effective  January 26, 2015.
  13. K. Wah International Holdings Limited ADR program will be terminated  on April 30, 2015.
  14. Thai Union Frozen Products PCL (TUFBY) changed the ratio to 1 ADR : 20 Ordinary Shares
  15. BHG S.A. – Brazil Hospitality Group terminated its ADR program.
  16. TUI TRAVEL PLC terminated its ADR program.
  17. Utair Aviation JSC terminated its ADR program.
  18. Symbio Pharmaceuticals started a new sponsored level 1 ADR program under the ticker SYMQY.
  19. Dainippon Screen Mfg. Co., Ltd changed its name to  SCREEN Holdings Co., Ltd.
  20. The Bank of Ireland terminated its ADR program effective April 22, 2015.
  21. China Jiuhao Health Industry Corporation Limited  terminated its ADR program.
  22. Hanwha SolarOne Co., Ltd. changed its name to Hanwha SolarOne Co., Ltd with new ticker HQCL.
  23. Alto Palermo S.A has changed its name to IRSA PROPIEDADES COMERCIALES S.A and the new ticker is IRCP.
  24. Burberry Group started a new sponsored level 1 ADR program under the ticker BURBY.
  25. Bionomics Limited ADR will be terminated May 21, 2015.
  26. Papillon Resources Ltd (PAPQY) ADR was terminated and holders were paid out a cash of $12.15 per DR.
  27. New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited (NZEOY) implemented a reverse stock split with a new ratio of 4 new DRs for every 5 old DR.
  28. Nippon Meat Packers Inc changed its name to NH Foods Ltd.
  29. eHi Car Services Limited was listed on the NYSE with the ticker EHIC.
  30. HDFC Bank Limited (HDB) of India completed a secondary offering of 22 million ADRs at $57.76 per share.

Source: BNY Mellon and JP Morgan

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