US Banking Stocks Lag Overall Market In Returns

The S&P 500 is down 8.0% year-to-date(YTD). However banking stocks have declined even more with the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index falling 13% YTD as shown in the chart below:

Click to enlarge

KBW Index Return YTD

Source: Google Finance

The KBW Index is still well off the all-time highs reached before the Global Financial Crisis went it reached as high as 117.

Banks face plenty of headwinds despite years of solid growth since the crisis. The recent federal interest rate increase is technically supposed to benefit banks. From an article in the weekend journal:

First among those issues: Whether the market rout of the first two weeks of 2016 spells a sharp slowdown in global growth that will spill over into the U.S. and either throw the domestic economy into recession or, perhaps less acutely, prevent the Federal Reserve from executing a stated plan to raise short-term interest rates as many as four times this year.

Rising rates benefit banks because they make money on the wider spread between the interest charged for loans and the payments made to customers for deposits. Bets on bank stocks have repeatedly tripped up investors because rates have stayed lower for longer than expected and the Fed held off on raising benchmark rates until December.

“Bottom line: We need a better economy, we need loans to grow and we need rates to go higher,” said Jesse Lubarsky, who trades financial stocks at Raymond James. “You can’t invest in [the] group if you can’t invest in an economy going higher and growing.”

Bank stocks have continued to languish despite the Fed’s decision to raise rates in December for the first time in nine years, in part because rates in the market have continued to fall and the global growth outlook has darkened.

Source: U.S. Bank Stocks Fall, Baffling Some, WSJ, Jan 15, 2016

Banks with high exposure to the energy sector are particularly vulnerable to further declines given the continuing crash of crude oil prices.  Some of the banks hurt by the energy sector include: Zions Bancorporation (ZION), Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR), BOK Financial Corporation (BOKF) according to another journal article.

Disclosure: No Positions

A Note On The Performance Of Germany’s DAX Index

The benchmark DAX Index closed at 9545.27 yesterday. With a decline of 11.1% so far, the index is down more than most other developed European markets year-to-date.

The following chart shows the two-year return of the DAX:

DAX 2 Year Returns

Source: Yahoo Finance

DAX reached a record high of over 12,390 early last year. From that peak, it has now plunged to 9,545 for a loss of about 30%. German stocks have declined more than other developed markets due to German firms’ high reliance on the Chinese market. As an export-oriented economy, large-cap German companies have high exposure to China. As China’s markets have collapsed and the economy is showing further signs of weakness, investors have punished German large firms heavily. Since the DAX is comprised of large-cap firms it is not surprising the index has plunged about 30% since last year’s peak.

Despite the fall, German stocks are good to hold for long-term investors as they have returned substantially higher returns over the long-term. German firms’ leadership position in certain industries like chemicals, luxury autos, engineering, etc. are unlikely to be beaten any time soon by other countries. It is also important to note that unlike other indices, the DAX index returns includes dividends.

You may also want to check out the below posts on DAX:

Country ETF for Germany: 

  • iShares MSCI Germany (EWG)

Disclosure: No Positions

Knowledge is Power: Hope and Change, Pitchforks, Oil Slick Edition

St Patricks Cathedra NY

Saint Patrick’s Cathedral, New York

The Top Ten Most-Liquid Depository Programs 2015

Citi recently published its annual Depository Receipts Year-End 2015 Report. This report contains a lot of interesting stats on foreign DR progra,s The following are select lists based on trading volumes:

a) The Top Ten Liquid Depository Program 2015 – Global

Click to enlarge

Ten Most Liquid Programs

b) The Top Ten Most-Liquid Depository Program 2015 – Asia Pacific

Ten Most Liquid Programs-Asia

c) The Top Ten Most-Liquid Depository Program 2015 – EMEA

Ten Most Liquid Programs-EMEA

d) The Top Ten Most-Liquid Depository Program 2015 – Latin America

Ten Most Liquid Programs-Latin America

Source: Citi Depositary Receipts Year-End 2015 Report, Citi

10 Benefits of Investing in Stocks

In an article yesterday I wrote about the risk of investing in equities. However the benefits of investing in stocks far outweigh the risks. In  my earlier article I mentioned the Cyprus market that has declined by over 99% in the past few years. But that market is tiny and in the global investing landscape is not considered as a market with any significance.

Some of the benefits of investing in stocks over other assets are listed below:

  1. It has been proven in many studies that stocks outperform bonds and other asset classes over the long-term. Not only do stocks outperform in the long-run but they are also excellent options to beat inflation.
  2. Some stocks pay dividends periodically such each quarter for most US firms. This make them attractive for income investors.
  3. In addition to regular dividend payments, companies can also pay special dividends as they wish. For example, when higher taxes on dividends came into effect many years ago some firms paid a special dividend before the tax law effective date. Some companies pay a special dividend at the end of the year to reward loyal shareholders.  For example, US-based Glacier Bancorp, Inc. (GBCI) announced a $0.30 dividend at the end of last year.
  4. Unlike bonds, taxes are charged at a lower rate for dividends paid out by firms.Dividends for stocks held over a year get a lower tax rate as they are considered as “Qualified Dividends”. Interest payments from bonds are usually taxed at ordinary income tax rate.
  5. Companies can also have spinoffs in which case existing shareholders will receive additional shares of the new firm. Holding other assets like ETFs or mutual funds do not have this advantage. For example, when Reckitt Benckiser Group plc (RBGLY) spun off Indivior PLC existing shareholders were assigned a certain amount of Indivior PLC(INVVY) shares.
  6. For foreign stocks, some companies pay dividends in cash or additional shares. When cash option is chosen dividend withholding taxes have to paid. But choosing the shares option avoids this tax.
  7. When companies raise cash with a rights issue, current holders are entitled to receive additional shares usually at a discount or receive cash payments instead of rights.
  8. ETFs and other funds can be shutdown by the provider and cash returned to holders at any time at the discretion of the provider. Stocks do not have this issue. Unless a firm is delisted or goes bankrupt or merges with another firm, a stock will continue to trade.
  9. One company may be acquired by another company sometimes at a premium. In such cases, holders of the target firm can reap substantial gains. This does not happen with mutual funds or ETFs.
  10. By holding stocks an investor controls all the issues related to taxes related to dividends, withholding taxes for foreign dividends, capital gains, etc. But when holding a mutual fund for example, the fund company controls all the tax-related matters. For instance, at the end of the year a fund may pay our a huge capital gains distribution and fund holder will be hit with taxes on this payment.

Disclosure: Long INVVY, RBGLY, GBCI