Knowledge is Power: Extended Downturn Edition

1.April 8 (Bloomberg) — Since the Jwaneng diamond mine in Botswana closed in February, Emmanuel Garetshele has done little except cash his mine-operator paycheck and watch his country go from being the success story of Africa to an economic laggard. Botswana Diamond Mines Sit Idle as Africa’s Star Economy Loses Its Luster

2.SUFFOCATED BY DEBT -Greece is on the brink of bankruptcy despite the fact that the global recession has yet to hit the country with full force. Strikes are paralyzing the country and the EU is putting on the pressure. But the government is still trying to put a positive spin on things. Greece Teeters on the Verge of Bankruptcy

3. IMF responds to foreign depositors in Icelandic banks

4. Germany Faces Extended Downturn Despite Stimulus
IMF Survey Magazine article

5.Schroders’ Maisonneuve sees a great big W and explains how to play financials in this mad, mad, mad, mad world. Separating ‘utility’ banks from financial growth stocks

6.US President did offer a ray of light towards March-end, despite some disturbing estimates from the IATA. Do you want the good news or the bad news?

7. The media loves to harp on Japan’s “lost decade” and use the world’s second-largest economy as a negative example. Yet while corporations in other countries are still gaming the government for handouts and freebees, corporate Japan has learned that government actions tend to merely delay the inevitable. This time Japan Inc. is restructuring for real and a leaner, meaner Japan is poised to rise back to the top.-Why I’m Bullish on Japan

Update: The Ten Most Traded ADRs

The ten most traded foreign ADR stocks by daily volume are:

Companhia Vale do Rio Doce-CVRD – RIO
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing – TSM
Nokia – NOK
Petroleo Brasileiro – PBR
Itau Unibanco – ITU
Banco Bradesco – BBD
Alcatel-Lucent – ALU
Siliconware Precision Industries – SPIL
BP – BP
America Movil – AMX

Four of the above ten stocks are from Brazil.America Movil is from Mexico.

Six Stocks With Attractive Yields

Many stocks in the oil&gas and utility sectors have attractive dividend yields at current prices. Six of them are listed below with their current yields. Though they may fall further due to volatile market conditions, they are definitely worth looking into for potential long-term investment opportunities.

1.Company:ENI SPA (E)
Country: Italy
Dividend Yield: Oil & Gas – Integrated
Sector: 8.43%

2.Company:National Grid PLC (NGG)
Country: UK
Dividend Yield: Electric Utilities
Sector: 4.86%

3.Company:TransCanada Corp (TRP)
Country: Canada
Dividend Yield: Natural Gas Utilities
Sector: 5.02%

4.Company:PetroChina Company Ltd (PTR)
Country: China
Dividend Yield: Oil & Gas – Integrated
Sector: 4.05%

5.Company:Petrobras Energia Participaciones SA (PZE)
Country: Argentina
Dividend Yield: Oil & Gas – Integrated
Sector: 6.15%

6.Company:Statoilhydro ASA (STO)
Country: Norway
Dividend Yield: Oil & Gas – Integrated
Sector: 4.37%

S&P 500 Index Returns by Year

The S&P 500 is down 7.50% as of market close today (April 6,2009). The worst performing sectors is the financials at 24.7% and the best performing sector is IT with a return of 9.98%. Traditional defensive sectors such as utilities and consumer staples are down 11.11% and 8.25% respectively year-to-date.

The current bear market is the worst market since the great depression. Since the start of the credit crunch in October,2007 the S&P fell to a low of 56.8%. This is worse than the dot com bubble crash when the index was down 49.1% only.However during the great depression, the Dow index was off a horrendous 89.2%.The current crash is also worst than the 1973 oil crisis crash when the S&P was down 48.2%. From a trough of being down around 57%, the S&P has rallied some basis points in the past four weeks (Data Source: dshort.com)

The following chart was developed by Yale University’s Value Square Asset Management.  It shows the % change in S&P each year. It is not clear how data for 1800s were found and used (click to enlarge)

Sp Index returns by year

Knowledge is Power: Zombie Banks Edition

1.Billionaire George Soros said the change to fair-value accounting rules will keep troubled banks in business, stalling a recovery of the U.S. economy.“This is part of the muddling through scenario where we are going to keep zombie banks alive,” Soros, 78, said today in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “It’s going to sap the energies of the economy.” Soros Says New Mark-to-Market Rules Will Help Keep `Zombie’ Banks Alive

2.China’s decision not to allow Coca Cola to buy local soft drinks champion Huiyuan Juice, announced on March 18, and the latest World Bank report predicting growth will slow to 6.5% from the previously forecast 7.5%, has caused some commentators to wonder whether China could turn inwards. The fear is that China could turn away from its relatively open economic model and copy Japan’s ‘mercantilist’ model, defined as manipulating the terms of trade in one’s favour through currency depreciation and non-tariff barriers to imports and investments, and thus ‘stealing’ growth from one’s neighbours.Could China become another Japan?

3.SHOPPING centre giant Westfield (wdc.ASX:Quote,News) is struggling to deal with a “perfect storm” of retailing problems at its flagship London complex.

The Australian developer opened Europe’s biggest urban shopping mall at Shepherd’s Bush, west London, just as the worst recession in generations hit Britain, the Herald Sun reports.Westfield owned London shopping centre in trouble – a ‘ghost town’

4.Banks’ 1st-Quarter Results May Show Improvement: Whitney

Bank earnings may show some improvement in the first quarter, though the sector still has far to go in recovering from the credit crisis, well-known analyst Meredith Whitney told CNBC.

“I think you’ll see a directional turn,” Whitney said in a live interview. “Banks will make a little money, as little as a penny a share, but they won’t lose money.”

5. Optimism for near-term China recovery, fueled by the widely reported $587 billion two-year stimulus package, is running high heading into the G-20 summit this week. Many countries are expecting Chinese demand to spur a new round of increased consumption. These hopes are unfortunately misplaced at the moment.Can China Save the World?