Impact of Inflation on Real Purchasing Power of Money: An Australian Example

Inflation is bad because it reduces the real purchasing power of money. To put it another way, inflation makes the value of the dollar worth less. Central banks around the world are fighting hard to tame inflation. I recently came across an article that showed how inflation hurt the real purchasing power of the Australian dollar in the past. From the article:

The chart below shows the impact of inflation on $100,000 in assets or income over time in Australia, from different starting points. For example, $100,000 of assets or income in 1980 was a lot of money at that time (the median Sydney house price was just $69,000 in 1980) but $100,000 in 1980 dollars would have been whittled down to just $19,000 in today’s dollars if you didn’t protect it against inflation.

Another way of looking at it is if you had $100,000 in cash in 1980 and locked it in a safe then opened the safe today, you still have that same $100,000 but it would only buy $19,000 worth of today’s goods and services. (Or if you invested in term deposits in 1980 and you lived off the interest). Inflation over the years has eaten away 81% of its purchasing power.

The 1980 ‘real’ (i.e., after inflation) value line is the pink line starting from 1980 near the middle of the chart. We can see that the real purchasing power of $100,000 in 1980 decayed very quickly in the high inflation 1980s, but then the rate of value decay eased off (a less steep downward value decay curve) in recent decades. The section at the bottom of the chart shows the annual CPI inflation rate in Australia since 1990. Inflation was very high in the 1970s, then declined in the 1980s, and has been relatively ‘low’ in the 2000s and 2010s decades.

The problem is that, even in these so-called ‘low inflation’ years, inflation still had a serious detrimental impact on wealth and incomes. For example:

$100,000 starting in 1990 has been eaten away to a purchasing power of just $43,000 today.

$100,000 starting in 2000 has been eaten away to a purchasing power of just $54,000 today.

Even in the ultra-low inflation post-GFC years, $100,000 in 2010 has been eaten away to a purchasing power of just $73,000 today.

In the past two years alone, $100,000 at the start of 2020 has already lost 9% of its purchasing power to $91,000 today (the steep red value decay curve to the right of the chart).

The wealth-destroying effects of inflation never went away. Remember how central bankers dreamed about reviving inflation in the post-GFC years, and especially in 2020-21. We are all paying for that now!

Source: The wealth-destroying impact of inflation by Ashley Owen, Stanford Brown and The Lunar Group

Related:

The Biggest Airliner Shoot-Down Incidents: Infographic

On Jan 8, 2020 a commercial airliner flying from Tehran to Kyiv, operated by Ukraine International Airlines was shot down by Iranian military in a case of mistaken identity. This caused the tragic deaths of 167 passengers and 9 crew members. The following infographic shows of the other major airliner shoot down incidents in history:

Click to enlarge

Source: RFE/RL Infographics

Market Leadership Often Changes After A Bear Market

I came across a fascinating article on lessons learned from experienced investors on braving bear markets at Capital Group. This is indeed a timely article since we are in the grips of a brutal bear. Though market may have shot up yesterday and today, the bear market is not over until it is actually over. So it is not wise to get excited about up days in a bear market. With that said, one of the key points that caught my eye in the article is that we should avoid winners of the last cycle by Lisa Thompson, Portfolio Manager. From the piece:

My experience has taught me that markets have long cycles. I believe the pandemic marked the end of the post-global financial crisis cycle — a cycle dominated by deleveraging, demand shocks and expanding globalization. These conditions led to looser monetary and fiscal policy, low cost of capital and stock price inflation.

Today we are at the beginning of a new cycle, one that I expect will be marked by deglobalization, a shrinking labor supply and decarbonization — conditions that will lead to a shift from asset price inflation to goods inflation. Profit margins and highly valued stocks will face continued pressure. Because I expect generally higher inflation during this period, I want to steer clear of many of the fast-growing primarily U.S. companies that were the winners of the previous cycle.

Source: Braving bear markets: 5 lessons from seasoned investors, Capital Group

Following this theory, the winners before the current bear market were crypto, technology such as profitless companies, semiconductors, software, e-tailing, streaming, etc., consumer discretionary, fintech firms like BNPL, biotech, meme stocks, etc. Other than a qualified few, most of these companies are bound to disappoint investors in the next cycle. Already many of these stocks have taken severe beatings since the start of the year.

It remains to be see which sectors would be the champions of the next cycle. Value stocks, small and mid cap stocks, railroads, pet food and healthcare, etc. could be better performers.

Related ETFs:

  • SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
  • iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV)
  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)
  • SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF (SPLG)
  • S&P MidCap 400 SPDR ETF (MDY)
  • SPDR Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY)
  • SPDR Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP)
  • SPDR Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE)
  • SPDR Financials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF)

Disclosure: No positions

Quick Check on Canadian Bank Stocks

The S&P 500 in a bear market with a loss of 25% YTD. Canada’s TSX Composite is down relatively lesser with a decline of 13% year-to-date. On a sector basis, how much have Canadian banks fallen?

Click to enlarge

Source: Google Finance

RBC (RY) is down by about 16%. The worst performer so far this year is ScotiaBank(BNS). High exposure to emerging markets in Latin America and other factors have led to a loss of 33%.

Long-term investors will find dividend yields of these banks attractive at current levels. However with the overall market still facing further declines and recession on the horizon it is wise to keep an eye on these stocks and nibble a little during big decline days.

Disclosure: Long BNS, BMO, CM, RY and TD