Oil Price Decline Has Reached Historical Extremes

Crude oil prices have declined dramatically in the past year or so. Brent crude closed at $28.49 today.

According to an article by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab, crude oil declines have reached historical extremes. Oil prices have plunged by 77% from the recent peak.

Click to enlarge

Crude Oil Brent Price Decline Extremes

From the article:

Oil effect

If a recession is coming, it would also be the first time in history it was preceded by a crash in oil prices—more often than not, it’s a surge in oil prices which helps trigger a recession. As a consumption-oriented economy, US growth is ostensibly helped by lower energy prices. The rub of course, is that there are segments of the economy which are severely damaged; i.e., the energy and basic materials sectors. What we’re facing now is an environment where the headwinds associated with weak oil have a higher miles-per-hour than the tailwinds, which have yet to pick up.

Oil prices likely have to stabilize for the market to do the same. I won’t attempt to forecast when/where that may be, but the chart below does show we have reached historical extremes—not only in year-over-year terms for global oil prices, but also maximum peak-to-trough declines.

Source: Changes: Turn and Face the Strange (Market), Charles Schwab

Related:

  • United States Oil (USO)

Disclosure: No Positions

Five Things To Do As The Stock Market Roller-Coaster Ride Continues

Equity markets worldwide are very volatile so far this year.Most of the markets have declined significantly in just two weeks.The S&P 500 has already fallen 8% year-to-date. Every day stocks seem to go nowhere but down.Despite all the doom and gloom, it is wise to follow the course and stay strong.

That being said, here are five things an investor can do during volatile market conditions:

1.Stay calm and carry on: Markets always go up and down for a multitude of reasons. There is no reason to panic when markets go down such as the current correction. Instead of worrying about the day to day market movements, investors can simply stay calm and do nothing. Sometimes doing nothing is the best action one can take. It is especially important not to sell stocks as prices are at lows now.

2. Avoid suspending automatic dividend reinvestment (DRIPs): During market crashes dividends that are automatically reinvested grow more as an investor to accumulate shares cheaper. Seeing the market go down everyday one may be tempted to suspend or cancel dividend reinvestment immediately. This is a wrong move to make. During the 2008-09 financial crisis, suspending dividend reinvestment cost me dearly as I missed out on the following dramatic upturn by not picking up stocks at their lowest.

3. Deploy cash, if possible: Many high-quality companies are also getting trashed with the overall market. Investors with a long-term horizon of at least 5 years can deploy cash if available and add additional stocks to their portfolios.

4. Roth IRA Conversion (for US investors only): Investors can transfer stocks that have declined heavily in their traditional IRA accounts to their Roth IRA account for this tax year. Since taxes will be due only on the price at the time of conversion, one can benefit greatly when filing taxes next year. For example, if a stock with a cost basis of $100 per share is now trading at just $50, converting this stock from the traditional IRA to a Roth account, one would pay taxes on the cost basis of just $50 per share and not the original cost basis of $100. Since Roth IRA is the best in terms of taxes and saving for retirement this is one strategy that investors can easily follow when stocks crash.

Also see:

5. Stay away from commodity stocks, ETFs, etc: Most commodity stocks such as mining and metal stocks have plunged 50% or more in the past year or so. They may look cheap with low share prices. However it is wise to stay away from the commodity sector at all times. Investing in all types of commodity firms or directly in commodities such as copper, soyabeans, pork bellies, orange juice futures, iron ore, etc. is not suitable for most retail investors. In fact, there is no need to invest in commodities at all. Commodities are prone to extreme volatility and no body knows how long crude oil can go, for example. Just a few years pundits were predicting $150 or even $100  per barrel. Now some are predicting $30 or even $10 per barrel. Instead of trying to pick up “cheap” mining stocks investors are better off adding stocks in the energy sector like integrated oil companies.These firms have the ability to continue dividend payments despite lower oil prices and share prices can jump should the oil prices recover.

In summary, it is important to stay focused on the long-term goals and not make decisions based on emotions. Trying to predict the price of crude oil or when China may start consuming zillions of tons of copper, coal or iron ore is simply foolish. Since those things are beyond an individual investors’ control, it makes sense to focus on things that are under the investors’ control. The ability to sit tight as markets turn blood red all over and not following the herd are squarely within the control of ordinary investors.

US Banking Stocks Lag Overall Market In Returns

The S&P 500 is down 8.0% year-to-date(YTD). However banking stocks have declined even more with the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index falling 13% YTD as shown in the chart below:

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KBW Index Return YTD

Source: Google Finance

The KBW Index is still well off the all-time highs reached before the Global Financial Crisis went it reached as high as 117.

Banks face plenty of headwinds despite years of solid growth since the crisis. The recent federal interest rate increase is technically supposed to benefit banks. From an article in the weekend journal:

First among those issues: Whether the market rout of the first two weeks of 2016 spells a sharp slowdown in global growth that will spill over into the U.S. and either throw the domestic economy into recession or, perhaps less acutely, prevent the Federal Reserve from executing a stated plan to raise short-term interest rates as many as four times this year.

Rising rates benefit banks because they make money on the wider spread between the interest charged for loans and the payments made to customers for deposits. Bets on bank stocks have repeatedly tripped up investors because rates have stayed lower for longer than expected and the Fed held off on raising benchmark rates until December.

“Bottom line: We need a better economy, we need loans to grow and we need rates to go higher,” said Jesse Lubarsky, who trades financial stocks at Raymond James. “You can’t invest in [the] group if you can’t invest in an economy going higher and growing.”

Bank stocks have continued to languish despite the Fed’s decision to raise rates in December for the first time in nine years, in part because rates in the market have continued to fall and the global growth outlook has darkened.

Source: U.S. Bank Stocks Fall, Baffling Some, WSJ, Jan 15, 2016

Banks with high exposure to the energy sector are particularly vulnerable to further declines given the continuing crash of crude oil prices.  Some of the banks hurt by the energy sector include: Zions Bancorporation (ZION), Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR), BOK Financial Corporation (BOKF) according to another journal article.

Disclosure: No Positions

A Note On The Performance Of Germany’s DAX Index

The benchmark DAX Index closed at 9545.27 yesterday. With a decline of 11.1% so far, the index is down more than most other developed European markets year-to-date.

The following chart shows the two-year return of the DAX:

DAX 2 Year Returns

Source: Yahoo Finance

DAX reached a record high of over 12,390 early last year. From that peak, it has now plunged to 9,545 for a loss of about 30%. German stocks have declined more than other developed markets due to German firms’ high reliance on the Chinese market. As an export-oriented economy, large-cap German companies have high exposure to China. As China’s markets have collapsed and the economy is showing further signs of weakness, investors have punished German large firms heavily. Since the DAX is comprised of large-cap firms it is not surprising the index has plunged about 30% since last year’s peak.

Despite the fall, German stocks are good to hold for long-term investors as they have returned substantially higher returns over the long-term. German firms’ leadership position in certain industries like chemicals, luxury autos, engineering, etc. are unlikely to be beaten any time soon by other countries. It is also important to note that unlike other indices, the DAX index returns includes dividends.

You may also want to check out the below posts on DAX:

Country ETF for Germany: 

  • iShares MSCI Germany (EWG)

Disclosure: No Positions