Brazilian Bank Stocks: Are They A Good Buy Now?

The Brazilian equity market entered the bear market territory recently. The IBovespa is down by 2.65% year-to-date. Banks have held up well compared to other Brazilian stocks listed on the US exchanges as shown in the table below.

CompanyTickerPrice on Dec 25, 2014Year-to-date change (%)Industry
GolGOL$5.4619.47%Travel & Leisure
EmbraerERJ$36.9514.82%Aerospace & Defense
BRF S.A.BRFS$23.4012.12%Food Producers
Itau UnibancoITUB$12.884.38%Banks
Banco BradescoBBD$13.074.31%Banks
Fibria CeluloseFBR$12.143.94%Forestry & Paper
Comp. Paranaense de Energia-COPELELP$13.543.04%Electricity
Banco BradescoBBDO$12.91-8.11%Banks
Telefonica BrasilVIV$17.59-8.48%Fixed Line Telecom.
CPFL EnergiaCPL$13.72-14.30%Electricity
Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras-EletrobrasEBR$2.19-15.44%Electricity
TIM ParticipacoesTSU$21.97-16.27%Mobile Telecom.
Banco Santander BrasilBSBR$5.02-17.70%Banks
Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais-CEMIGCIG$4.93-17.70%Electricity
AMBEV S.AABEV$6.04-17.82%Beverages
Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao-CBDCBD$36.47-18.36%Food &Drug Retailers
UltraparUGP$19.17-18.94%Gas,H20&Multiutility
BraskemBAK$13.04-26.95%Chemicals
Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras-EletrobrasEBR$2.92-33.64%Electricity
Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais-CEMIGCIG$5.13-37.44%Electricity
SABESPSBS$6.43-43.30%Gas,H20&Multiutility
Petroleo Brasileiro-PetrobrasPBR$7.39-46.37%Oil & Gas Producers
ValeVALE$8.16-46.49%Indust.Metals&Mining
GafisaGFA$1.56-50.16%HouseGoods&HomeConst
GerdauGGB$3.53-54.97%Indust.Metals&Mining
Companhia Siderurgica Nacional-CSNSID$2.23-64.03%Indust.Metals&Mining

Source: BNY Mellon

Brazilian bank stocks may be attractive now for investors looking to gain exposure to Brazil. According to an article in Euromoney, banks in Brazil are offer strength to the economy and are performing better consider the economy is weak.

From the article:

Brazil’s banks have shrugged off the slow growth of their domestic economy and have been reporting strong growth despite macro-economic challenges.

The strong earnings season in Brazil’s banking system shows that the sector is ready to drive growth through renewed credit extension once the currency period of economic “re-adjustment” has been negotiated, Rubens Sardenberg, chief economist of Febraban, the banking association of Brazilian banks, told delegates to the Felaban conference in Medellin, Colombia in mid-November.

“The [Brazilian] banking system has tier-1 capital of 11% and core 1 and 2 combined of 12%: it is solid, capitalized and liquid despite the current challenges facing the economy,” said Sardenberg. “The banking system isn’t a source of weakness to the economy today, in fact it’s the opposite. It’s a potential strength, as a source of renewed growth through credit extension into the economy, once the readjustment comes and we start to have higher levels of growth again.”

In early November Itaú Unibanco’s third-quarter results showed the bank had its highest recurring return-on-equity (ROE) in nearly five years. The bank’s recurring profit was R$5.6 billion, with a 27.6% ROE, up 10% quarter-on-quarter. Adjusted net income hit R$5.3 billion, also up 10% quarter on quarter. Despite expectations of low growth this year (0.3%) and next (1.0%), according to a survey of 100 economists by the Brazilian Central Bank, Credit Suisse predicts earnings growth of 15% for the leading private and public banks. Profits have been buoyed by rising credit spreads as the country’s Selic rate goes through a further tightening cycle, with improving net interest margins.

Source: Brazil’s banks immune to struggling economy by Rob Dwyer, Dec 2014, Euromoney

Currently Itau Unibanco(ITUB) and Banco Bradesco(BBD) have dividend yields of 3.38% and 4.37% respectively.Banco Santander Brasil is a subsidiary of Spanish banking giant Banco Santander(SAN). The state-owned Banco do Brasil trades on the OTC market under the ticker BDORY and has declined 12.5% year-to-date.

Disclosure: Long BBD, ITUB and SAN

Why Do Germans Stay Away From Stocks

The German stocks market is one of the best performing markets in Europe over the long-term. For example, in the 25 years leading to 2013 the DAX index grew by more than eight times.From 1955 thru 2012, the index had returns in 39 years and negative returns in only 19 years.

In 2013, German stocks generated a 31.7% return based on the MSCI Germany Index.The 1o-year annualized return for Germany is a solid 12.0%. Despite such strong performance and home to many leading world-class companies, most Germans ignore the stock market. In fact, direct equity ownership is under 10% compared to Anglo-Saxon countries which have much higher figures. So I was curious as to why Germans do not invest in stocks.

The following are some of the reasons why equity ownership is very low in Germany:

1. The banking system in Germany is dominated by local savings banks and co-operative banks who tend to offer conservative investment advice to their customers. This is vastly different from other developed markets where many banks are national and they try to encourage their customers into higher risk products such as stocks.

2.In 2003, the Neuer Markt which is similar to the technology-heavy NASDAQ market collapsed. This scared retail investors from investing in the stock market.

3.In the late 90s, Germany privatized state-owned companies such as Deutsche Telekom and Deutsche Post and sold shares to the general public.n fact in 2000, The Economist magazine reported that “Germany was share-crazy. Gone is the image of a nation dourly stuffing its spare cash into a safe-as-houses, low-interest Sparbuch savings account. Money poured into initial public offerings… Germans were opening share-dealing accounts – online, naturally – at a furious rate.”

These IPOs soared during then dot-com bubble and then crashed spectacularly when the bubbled popped. I Germans who ventured into the stock market with these IPOs were burned badly. They decided to never again play the stock market game at least via investing directly as opposed to via pensions, insurance policies and other ways.

Unlike Germany, Americans returned to stocks even after the NASDAQ imploded when the technology bubble crashed and investors lost billions of dollars. This may be attributed to the difference in cultures between Germany and the U.S.. Unlike conservative Germans, Americans are high risk-takers as everyone is chasing the “American Dream”. Moreover with returns from bank deposits and other ways practically meaningless Americans are artificially forced to invest in stocks by the state.

4.The great crash 0f 1929 is still vividly remembered by older Germans and younger generations learn about it from their parents and in schools.

5. Germans tend to invest big in life insurance policies and other similar products because there is a set guarantee of returns. With stocks there is no guaranteed return and even dividends can be suspended or cut for any or no reason by a firm’s management.

Back in 2007, Franz-Josef Leven of the Deutsches Aktieninstitut (German Equities Institute, DAI) said “The risk of stock investing and not having a guarantee of how much of a return an investment will yield is a central reason why Germans tend to avoid stocks.”

6. The “equity culture” is almost non-existent in Germany due to the difference in corporate financing culture between Germany and other developed countries. For instance, German firms have traditionally depended on banks or debt for their financing needs.But most American companies generally rely on selling equity to raise funds. Hence American firms sell shares to the public to generate funds whereas most Germans firms don’t. In the U.S. even today a dot-com with no profits or even revenues can raise millions in capital by selling equity.

Related ETFs:

  • iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund (EWG)

Disclosure: No Positions

Related:

High Speed Rail Maps of Europe and North America

Europe has an excellent conventional rail network.However not many people know that the continent also has an amazing high speed rail network that covers many of the major cities.

Today the fastest high speed train in operation is AGV Italo which has a top operational speed of 36o km/hr and broke a record speed of 574.8 km/hr during test run.

Click to enlarge

AGV Italo Best

TGV Italo has been dubbed the “Italy’s Ferrari of Railways“. In 2012, a ticket cost as low as EUR 20 to travel from Rome to Naples on this beauty. The distance between the cities is 140 miles and the train covers it in little over an hour.

Additional high speed routes are planned in Europe as the map below shows:

Click to enlarge

High Speed Rail Network Europe Nov 2013

Compared to Europe, the U.S. has no real high speed routes let alone a network. Amtrak has 28 miles of high speed track in rural Massachusetts and Rhode Island that allows 150 mi/hr or 240 km/hr. This is pathetic speed compared to the high speed train speeds in Europe and other parts of the world. The only high speed train currently in operation in the U.S. is Amtrak’s  Acela Express. From Wikipedia:

The new service was named “Acela Express” and ran on the Northeast Corridor, linking Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington DC. The service was inaugurated in December 2000, and was an immediate success, operated at a profit and as of 2012, it produced about 25% of Amtrak’s total service revenue. The Acela lacks a dedicated high-speed rail line which limit its average speed, although it reaches a maximum speed of 240 km/h (149 mph) on small sections of its route through Rhode Island and Massachusetts.

The travel time between Washington and New York is 2 hours and 53 minutes (compared to 2 hours and 30 minutes for PRR‘s nonstop Metroliner in 1969), or an average speed of 79 mph (127 km/h). Schedule between New York and Boston is 3 hours 34 minutes, an average speed of only 63 mph (101 km/h). With a 15-minute layover in New York, the entire end-to-end trip averages 68 mph (110 km/h).

The map below shows the high speed rail network planned in North America:

High Speed Rail Network North America 2013

Source: High speed around the world Maps, Paris, 1 November 2013, International Union of Railways

For more high-speed rail maps of Europe go here.

Here is a cool photo of China’s high-speed rails:

Click to enlarge

CHINA RAILWAY HIGH SPEED TRAIN

Source: Der Spiegel

  1. High-Speed Train Network Map(TGV) of France

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TGV Stations Map

Source: Bonjour La France

Also checkout:

Latest Maps (as of 2018):

1.Europe

2.European Union

3.China

4.Germany

5.USA

6.Spain

7.Italy

8.Asia & Saudi Arabia

9.France

10.Japan

Source: UIC

A Review Of The Top 5 BRIC Companies By Market Capitalization

In 2011, FT’s beyondbrics blog published an interesting chart showing the top five firms by market capitalization in BRIC countries and discussed about how a few large companies dominate the stock market in those markets. I am including that chart below in order to add some perspective to this post.

Click to enlarge

BRIC Top Firms Stock Market Cap-2011

 

Source: Chart of the week: Bric stock market concentration, Jan 4, 2011, FT beyondbrics

Since 2011 emerging markets have undergone substantial changes.  The chart below shows the stock market capitalization of the largest five companies from Brazil, Russia, India and China:

Click to enlarge

BRIC Top 4 Firms Market Cap

 

Note: The combined markets of Shanghai and HongKong was used to select the Chinese firms shown above.

The top five firms are from China.Each of their market caps is much higher than other firms shown in the chart. Oil giant PetroChina(PTR) has a market cap of over $280.o billion.Three of the Chinese firms from the top five are banks. This shows the importance and growth of banking industry in China.

Compared to PetroChina, Russia’s Gazprom, Lukoil(LUKOY) and Rosneft have much smaller market caps. Gazprom(OGZPY) has a market cap of just $60.0 billion.As Russia is a resource-based economy, four of the five firms are in the oil and gas and mining industries.Another important point to consider is that Russian stocks always trade at a discount compared to other markets. In addition, the collapse of the ruble and the crash in crude oil prices have further damaged Russian companies.

Petrobras of Brazil had a market cap of about $400.0 billion in 2011. Now its market cap has plunged to just $52.0 billion. Corruption and political interference in the operations of this state-owned firm has crushed Petrobras(PBR) in the past few years with their shareholders suffering the most. Similar to China, the presence of two of the largest private-sector banks – Itau(ITUB) and Bradesco(BBD) – shows the importance of banks to the Brazilian economy.

Tata Consultancy Services tops all other Indian firms in terms of market cap. Valued at $76.0 billion the IT services provider highly benefits from the boom in offshoring of IT work by US, European and other companies.

Disclosure: Long BBD, ITUB, PBR