Why Sin Stocks Are Good For Investment

The “sin” sector in the equity markets includes companies that operate in businesses such as making and selling liquor, weapons, casinos and cigarettes. These are called “sin” industries for the obvious reason that people engaging such activities as drinking alcohol or gambling are committing sins. These industries tend to have high profit margin and there is money to be made from the actions of the sinners. For example, majority of the people that visit casinos to gamble lose money and these operations exist to simply to extract money from the pockets of gamblers. Hence casinos make huge amounts of profits. States run lotteries are also legally-approved gambling operations to extract money from poor folks in order to do some noble deeds like building a library, build a road, etc. However there is no way to profit from them since states have a monopoly on the lucrative business. Similarly cigarette smoking is an addiction and tobacco firms are able to sell their products to smokers with huge markups and generate solid earnings. Investors willing to invest in these industries have the potential to earn substantial returns since the companies in this sector perform well.

I came across two articles related to investing in the sin sector. From an article by Tom Stevenson of Fidelity Investments, UK:

Does it pay to be a saint or a sinner? Browse the investment bookshelves and you will end up none the wiser. That’s because for every sober-looking volume promoting ethical investing, you’ll find another more interesting-looking book extolling the virtues of vice.

The reality is actually somewhere in between, according to three professors at the London Business School who have crunched the numbers on sin and social responsibility. They conclude that the best returns may well come from seeking out the stock market’s black sheep and bringing them back into the fold.

First, the facts. Sin does pay for two reasons. First, companies operating in the market’s murkier corners – booze, tobacco, guns and gambling – have a steady demand for their products regardless of economic conditions, they tend to be high-margin businesses and they enjoy high barriers to entry. They are profitable and defensive.

Second, the tendency for some investors to shun these businesses on ethical grounds can result in them trading below their intrinsic value. An unpopular investment will tend to offer investors a higher yield – and because income is the principal component of total return over time this can lead to investment success. Even if the stocks the remain at a valuation discount, they will benefit from the compounding of their high dividends.

On tobacco stocks Mr.Stevenson added:

Tobacco illustrates the potential of investing in sin. Prior to the mid-1960s, before smoking became a sin, tobacco stocks underperformed the market. Once the health issues became well-known cigarette companies started to outperform and they have been key components in the portfolios of some of the most successful investors, like Neil Woodford.

Source: Face facts: there’s money in sin, Feb 17, 2015, Fidelity Investments, UK

The Wall Street Journal’s Jason Zweig also wrote an interesting piece on this topic. From the article:

New research indicates that a distaste for “butts, booze, bets and bombs” may depress prices for such stocks in the short run, enabling “sin-vestors” to outperform in the long run. It also suggests that if you seek to beat the market, you should favor whatever is most profoundly unpopular.

A study released this past week by finance researchers Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton of London Business School shows that over the past 115 years, U.S. tobacco stocks returned an average of 14.6% annually, compared with 9.6% for U.S. stocks.

Since such a differential grows powerfully over long periods, $1 invested in tobacco stocks in 1900 would have grown to $6.3 million by the end of 2014; the same $1 in the broader stock market would have grown to $38,255. Similar results have been found world-wide.

“It appears that when the people who abhor such stocks have shunned them, they have depressed the share prices but haven’t managed to destroy the industries,” Prof. Marsh says. “So investors who don’t have the same scruples have been able to pick up [these stocks] at a cheaper price.”

Source: ‘Sin-Vestors’ Can Reap Smoking-Hot Returns, Feb 13, 2015,The Wall Street Journal

Some of the investment opportunities in the sin sector are listed below for further research and analysis:

1.Company:Diageo PLC (DEO)
Current Dividend Yield: 2.90%
Sector: Beverages
Country: UK

2.Company: Heineken NV (HEINY)
Current Dividend Yield: 1.57%
Sector:Beverages
Country: The Netherlands

3.Company:SABMiller PLC (SBMRY)
Current Dividend Yield: 0.92%
Sector:Beverages
Country: UK

4.Company: Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (BUD)
Current Dividend Yield: 2.64%
Sector: Beverages
Country: Belgium

5.Company: British American Tobacco PLC (BTI)
Current Dividend Yield: 4.29%
Sector:Tobacco
Country: UK

6.Company: Imperial Tobacco Group PLC (ITYBY)
Current Dividend Yield: 4.24%
Sector:Tobacco
Country: UK

7.Company: Philip Morris International, Inc. (PM)
Current Dividend Yield: 4.84%
Sector:Tobacco
Country: USA

8.Company:Reynolds American Inc. (RAI)
Current Dividend Yield: 3.68%
Sector:Tobacco
Country: USA

9.Company: General Dynamics Corp (GD)
Current Dividend Yield: 1.78%
Sector: Aerospace & Defense
Country: USA

10.Company: BAE Systems (BAESY)
Current Dividend Yield: 4.08%
Sector: Aerospace
Country:UK

Disclosure: No Positions

ADR Programs: Corporate Actions Update Year-to-date

The following is a list of notable corporate actions on some of the ADR programs as of Feb 20, 2015:

  1. Shandong Luoxin Pharmacy Stock Co. Ltd (SLUXY) changed its name to Shandong Luoxin Pharmaceutical Group Stock Co., Ltd.
  2. Ricoh Company Ltd (RICOY) changed its ratio to 1 Depository Share : 1 Ordinary share from 1 Depository Share : 5 Ordinary share.
  3. Paranapanema S/A (PNPPY) was terminated and ADR holders were paidout a cash of  $ 1.53 per share.
  4. Incitec Pivot Limited(ICPVY) upgraded its ADR from Unsponsored to Sponsored.
  5. Erytech Pharma (EYRYY), a drug company from France started its sponsored ADR program.
  6. Genetic Technologies Limited (GENE) changed its ratio to 1 ADR : 150 Ordinary shares from 1:30 effecting a reverse split.
  7. Consorcio Hogar terminated its Level 1 Sponsored ADR program effective January 22, 2015.
  8. Prime Minerals Limited changed its name to  Covata Ltd.
  9. Incitec Pivot Limited of Australia started a new sponsored level 1 ADR program under the ticker INCZY.
  10. Reed Resources Limited changed its name to Neometals Ltd.
  11. Intelligent Energy Holdings plc started a new sponsored level 1 ADR program under the ticker INGYY.
  12. Sopheon plc ADR program was terminated effective  January 26, 2015.
  13. K. Wah International Holdings Limited ADR program will be terminated  on April 30, 2015.
  14. Thai Union Frozen Products PCL (TUFBY) changed the ratio to 1 ADR : 20 Ordinary Shares
  15. BHG S.A. – Brazil Hospitality Group terminated its ADR program.
  16. TUI TRAVEL PLC terminated its ADR program.
  17. Utair Aviation JSC terminated its ADR program.
  18. Symbio Pharmaceuticals started a new sponsored level 1 ADR program under the ticker SYMQY.
  19. Dainippon Screen Mfg. Co., Ltd changed its name to  SCREEN Holdings Co., Ltd.
  20. The Bank of Ireland terminated its ADR program effective April 22, 2015.
  21. China Jiuhao Health Industry Corporation Limited  terminated its ADR program.
  22. Hanwha SolarOne Co., Ltd. changed its name to Hanwha SolarOne Co., Ltd with new ticker HQCL.
  23. Alto Palermo S.A has changed its name to IRSA PROPIEDADES COMERCIALES S.A and the new ticker is IRCP.
  24. Burberry Group started a new sponsored level 1 ADR program under the ticker BURBY.
  25. Bionomics Limited ADR will be terminated May 21, 2015.
  26. Papillon Resources Ltd (PAPQY) ADR was terminated and holders were paid out a cash of $12.15 per DR.
  27. New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited (NZEOY) implemented a reverse stock split with a new ratio of 4 new DRs for every 5 old DR.
  28. Nippon Meat Packers Inc changed its name to NH Foods Ltd.
  29. eHi Car Services Limited was listed on the NYSE with the ticker EHIC.
  30. HDFC Bank Limited (HDB) of India completed a secondary offering of 22 million ADRs at $57.76 per share.

Source: BNY Mellon and JP Morgan

Punta Cana Resort

The P/E Ratio of Global Stocks Have Peaked

Global equity valuations have recently peaked to reach earlier highs and stocks are now more dependent on earnings to move higher, according to an article by Jeffrey Kleintop of Charles Schwab. From the article:

Earnings are the most important driver of the stock market over the long term. The global stock market, as tracked by the MSCI All Country World Index, has stalled since earnings peaked in mid-2014. Moreover, the index is within a few percentage points of its level back in 2008, at the previous earnings peak.

It’s not just earnings that have rebounded to previous peaks. Global stock market valuation, measured by the price-to-earnings ratio, is back at the level of 15 seen at the two prior earnings peaks. A price-to-earnings ratio divides a company’s share price by its per-share earnings to show how many multiples of earnings an investor must pay to acquire a share of stock.

With valuations having recovered, the global stock market is now more dependent on earnings growth to push stocks higher. Without the return of earnings growth, global stock markets may continue to stall, as they have over the past six months, even as they’re dealing with heightened volatility.

Click to enlarge

PE Ratio of Global Stocks

Data Source: Factset as of 2/10/15

Source: Global Earnings Per Share Could Rebound Soon, Feb 18, 2015, Charles Schwab

The year-to-date returns of some major developed markets indices in price terms are shown below:

S&P 500 Index: 2.5%
UK’s FTSE 100: 5.3%
France’s CAC 40: 13.1%
Germany’s DAX Index:12.7%
Spain’s IBEX35 Index: 5.8%

The year-to-date returns of some emerging markets indices in price terms are shown below:

China’s Shanghai Composite: 0.4%
India’s Bombay Sensex: 6.3%
Brzail’s Sao Paulo Bovespa: 2.5%
Chile’s Santiago IPSA: 3.5%
Mexico’s IPC All-Share: 0.9%

For US stocks, the P/E ratio looks a bit extended at 17.55 for the S&P 500 compared to a year ago.

Given the high valuations of global stocks, are there any stocks that investors can consider adding now?

Of course. There are plenty of stocks that long-term investors can consider at current levels. This is because these stocks have recently declined due to overblown worries, stocks have higher growth potential, etc.

Among the developed markets, stock prices of Canadian bank are attractive since they have fallen recently/ For example, Royal Bank of Canada(RY) is trading at just over $60 a share now as markets punished the bank for the planned acquisition of  City National Corporation of Hollywood, California in addition to overall re-evaluation of Canadian banks in the past few months due to their exposure to the oil industry. However Royal Bank is the most profitable bank in Canada and is well managed than others. Recently the bank completely exited the Latin American market due to issues related to money-laundering concerns by regulators. With a current dividend yield of 4.0%, the bank is a great buy.

Investors can also consider Auotliv(ALV) or Magna(MGA) in the auto parts sector, railroad stocks  such as Union Pacific(UNP),  stocks in the chemical sector such as BASF (BASFY), high quality stocks in the oil and gas industry, etc.

Disclosure: Long RY

Is it Time to Sell Indian Stocks?

The Indian stock market was one of the best performing markets in 2014 with a return of nearly 30% for the Sensex in local currency terms. This followed a 26% return in 2012 and 9% return in 2013 respectively. Year-to-date the index is up by 6.60% as of Feb 18th.

Andrew Graham of Martin Currie,UK warns investors that its time to sell the Indian market. From an article in FE Trustnet:

The recent dominance of Indian stocks in emerging markets won’t last following a divergence between valuations and fundamentals, according to Martin Currie’s Andrew Graham.

Indian equities rocketed up in 2014 as increasingly positive investor sentiment flowed towards the country after the election victory of the pro-business reformist Narendra Modi in March.

Voters handed Modi a landslide victory, after he promised the country a series of reforms mostly aimed at stimulating its economy and tackling corruption. He pledged to restructure a multitude of protectionist and tax policies that have stymied the flow of foreign capital into the country over the past decade.

As a consequence, the MSCI India index was the standout performer in both developed and emerging markets last year, having gained 31.58 per cent. The next best performer of the major indices was the S&P 500, which gained 20 per cent. Meanwhile, the MSCI Emerging Markets index made just a 3.9 per cent gain.

The Indian market has continued to rally in 2015 bringing its total gains to more than 50 per cent over the past year.

But Graham, whose remit includes the Martin Currie Asia Pacific Trust and open-ended Martin Currie Asia Pacific fund, says investors may wish to shift away from Indian exposure to avoid a sell-off in the near term.

“Everybody loves [India]. 18 months ago there were huge discounts available in stocks relative to their long-term averages but nobody was interested,” he said.

“Now, I see a lot of quite cyclical businesses in India to me that are no better than Chinese companies and are trading on many, many times multiples while their Chinese counterparts are not.”

“There is nothing wrong with Indian companies but there are very serious questions about valuations. The underlying change is for real but a lot of the really positive changes going on there are not really going to appear as economic growth or corporate profit growth – maybe later on but it is going to take time to come through. You’re not going to flick a switch and it will happen.”

Source: Time to sell last year’s best market, warns Martin Currie, Feb 19, 2015 FE Trustnet

The following chart shows the performance of the MSCI Index relative to the MSCI BRIC and Emerging Markets indices since 2000:

Click to enlarge

MSCI India Compare Chart

Source: MSCI

The S&P BSE Sensex closed at 29,446 yesterday which is within striking distance of all-time highs.At current levels, Indian stocks have a P/E ratio of 18.52. For the MSCI Index, the ratio stood at 19.87 at the end of January. Currently the P/E ratio of MSCI India index is much higher than the Emerging markets and BRIC indices.

Since the Indian economy is not growing at a faster pace as in the past and stock prices are already at elevated levels, investors may want to be cautious before committing new investments. Global investors are avoiding Brazil, Russia and China and instead ploughing their funds into Indian equities. Much of the equity price rise has come from the flow of foreign cash as domestic investors especially retail investors are stay away from the equity market. So unless corporate earnings can grow at expected rates, it will be difficult for the market to sustain current equity prices.

Some of the India-focused ETFs are PowerShares India (PIN), iShares S&P India Nifty 50 (INDY), iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA), etc. The list of Indian ADRs can be found here.

ETFs: The Complete List of India ETFs and ETNs Trading on the US Markets

Disclosure: No Positions

Download: Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2015

Credit Suisse recently published their famous Global Investment Returns Yearbook for 2015. It is a fascinating report with a variety of superb charts. For example, the chart below shows the sector weightings for select countries:

Click to enlarge

Sector Weightings in Select Countries

The entire report is worth a read for serious investors.

Credit Sussie Global Investment Returns Yearbook-2015

Download the full report by clicking on the above image or here (pdf).

Source: Credit Suisse

You may also want to checkout past yearbooks for 2014, 2013, 2012 and 2011.