The Five Best and Worst Performing ADRs YTD

Despite the significant rise in the markets from the March lows, not all the stocks are up year-to-date (YTD). While many ADR stocks are in the positive territory for the year some are still down heavily. The Five Best and Worst Performing ADRs YTD are listed below.

The Five Best Performing ADRs:

Company: Spreadtrum Communications (SPRD)
Country: China
YTD Change: 396%

Company: Mechel Steel (MTL)
Country: Russia
YTD Change: 334%

Company: KongZhong (KONG)
Country: China
YTD Change: 330%

Company: Aixtron (AIXG)
Country: Germany
YTD Change: 303%

Company: VanceInfo Technologies (VIT)
Country: China
YTD Change: 294%

The Five Worst Performing ADRs:

Company: Mizuho Financial (MFG)
Country: Japan
YTD Change: -29%

Company: LDK Solar(LDK)
Country: China
YTD Change: -38%

Company: The9 (NCTY)
Country: China
YTD Change: -43%

Company: Rostelecom (ROS)
Country: Russia
YTD Change: -48%

Company: Invitel (IHO)
Country: Denmark
YTD Change: -51%

Note: Performance data as of October 5, 2009

Six Defense Sector ADR Stocks

European countries together with Russia rank number two and three in arms exports to other countries. Next to the US, Russia, UK, France, Germany have large defense industries that cater to the demands of the developing world. Earlier today in an article analyzing the global arms market, I discussed the top 10 defense contractors in the US.

Now lets take a look at the foreign defense-sector stocks that trade in the US markets as ADRs:

Company:BAE Systems (BAESY)
Country: U.K.
Dividend Yield: 4.03%

Company:Embraer (ERJ)
Country: Brazil
Dividend Yield: N/A

Company: IRKUT (IRKTY)
Country: Russia
Dividend Yield: N/A

Company:Metal Storm (MTSXY)
Country: Australia
Dividend Yield: N/A

Company:Rolls Royce (RYCEY)
Country: U.K.
Dividend Yield: 2.70%

Company:Thales (THLEY)
Country: France
Dividend Yield: 3.07%

British defense firm BAE Systems and is down 4.44% YTD. Rolls-Royce operates in both the defense segment and the civilian aerospace area manufacturing airplane engine and services. The stock is up 47% YTD.

Brazil-based Embraer(ERJ) is engaged in the manufacture of aircrafts for both civilian and defense purposes. YTD the stock is up 39%.

Russian defense supplies maker IRKUT is up 171% YTD. Australian firm Metal Storm does not pay a dividend and the stock closed at $0.40 last Friday. France-based Thales operates in the aerospace, space, defense, security and transportation markets.YTD Thales is up 15%.

Are Defense Stocks Recession Proof?

Some investors consider defense stocks to be good investments during any market condition. But are defense stocks really recession proof?. An recent article titled A nations that merely wants peace in the New York Times says that “Despite a recession that knocked down global arms sales last year, the United States expanded its role as the world’s leading weapons supplier . . . The United States signed weapons agreements valued at $37.8 billion in 2008, or 68.4 percent of all business in the global arms bazaar, up significantly from American sales of $25.4 billion the year before.

Italy was a distant second, with $3.7 billion in worldwide weapons sales in 2008, while Russia was third with $3.5 billion in arms sales last year — down considerably from the $10.8 billion in weapons deals signed by Moscow in 2007.”

The total value of global weapons trade in 2008 was $55.2 B. Out of this, sales to developing countries accounted $42.2 B. The US was the top supplier to developing nations with sales of $29.6B or 70% of all deals last year.

Similar to other goods clearly developing countries are the major consumers for defense items as well. Many of these countries spend huge amount of funds on acquiring foreign military technologies to maintain national security. The top three arms buyers in the developing world last year were: United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Morocco. Next to US, Russia and France were the major exporters of arms to the developing world in 2008.

Charts:

US Arms Sales from 2001-2008
US-Arms-Sales-till-2008

Major Arms Suppliers to Developing countries in 2008
Arms-Transfer-Agreements-Worldwide-by-Suppliers-Developing-Nations

Arms Transfer Agreements Worldwide by supplier percentage of value

Arms-Transfer-Agreements-Worldwide-by-Suppliers-Value

Source: Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations, 2001-2008

US companies dominate global arms trade. The US accounted for 42.6% of all arms agreements between 2005-2008. The second ranked Russia’s sales was less than half of the US share.

The Top 10 U.S. Defense Contractors based on revenue as of 2008 are as follows:

1. Lockheed Martin (LMT)
2. Boeing (BA)
3. KBR Inc (KBR)
4. Northrop Grumman (NOC)
5. General Dynamics (GD)
6. Raytheon (RTN)
7. SAIC (SAI)
8. L-3 Communications (LVLT)
9. EDS Corporation
10. Fluor Corporation (FLR)

Source: WashingtonTechnology.com

Half of the above companies are engaged in the design, manufacture, sale and services of large military equipments such as plans, missiles, ships, etc. Lockheed Martin (LMT), Boeing (BA), General Dynamics (GD), Northrop Grumman (NOC) and Raytheon (RTN) fall in this category.

In addition to military items, Boeing (BA) makes commercial jetliners and space flight systems.Total revenue last year was $61B and the annual earnings growth is 34%. Currently the stock pays a 3.27% dividend.

The world’s defense contractor Lockheed Martin (LMT) is involved in the manufacture of advanced technology products including ballistic missile defense systems and nuclear weapon. It also makes the famous F-16 fighter jets, the Hellfire missile, the C-130 transport plane, etc. The average annual earnings growth is 27%.

Los Angeles, CA-based Northrop Grumman (NOC) is the maker of the B-2 bomber, the F-14 fighter, Global Hawk unmanned aircraft, Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS) and other systems.

Lexington, MA-based Raytheon (RTN) makes the famous Tomahawk cruise missile, the 5,000-pound “bunker buster” bomb GBU- 28, etc. The average earnings growth is 25% and the profit margin is about 8%.

General Dynamics(GD) manufactures the famous M1 Series Abrams Main Battle Tanks. In the civilian space, it owns Gulfstream Aerospace unit and the shipbuilding and repair unit National Steel and Shipbuilding.

KBR Inc (KBR), SAIC (SAI), L-3 Communications (LVLT), EDS Corporation
and Fluor Corporation (FLR) provide a variety of services to the military and civil sectors. These services include construction, engineering, technical, software among others. Though these companies are not as large as the five products makers above, they still win huge contracts from the military and civilian agencies alike.

The chart below shows the 5-year performance of the top five large defense product makers:

5-year-chart-best.png

Lockheed Martin(LMT) leads the group in the 5-year stock performance. Despite being one of the world’s largest makers of commercial planes Boeing stock has lagged in performance relative to others.

Comparision of Government Expenditures: USA vs. Norway

How do the government expenditures of USA and Norway differ?. USA follows the capitalist economic model whereas Norway is a socialist country. It is a general notion that the US spends less on social entitlement programs compared to socialist countries. When we compare the expenditures of Norway and US using the charts below, there is not much difference between these countries especially when it comes to social programs.

USA – The Federal Budget for 2008

USA-The-Federal-Budget

Norway – Government Expenditures in 2008

Norway-Government-Expenditures

Source: Statistics Norway

The top 3 areas of US expenditures are : Defense and Security, Social security, Medicare and the like. The US spent 21% of the budget on defense and security compared to under 5% by Norway in 2008. This is understandable since the US maintains hundreds of military facilities worldwide and currently runs two wars.

Norway spent about 55% on social benefits and health-care. The total expenses spent on Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and CHIP and Safety Net Programs equaled 52%. This comparison clearly shows that the US spends more than half of the budget on social programs. Despite being a capitalist country, it shows that the government has become socialistic over the years. Though the “public” option has been eliminated from the health care reform, Uncle Sam is the main provider of health insurance for most of the senior citizens thru Medicaid and Medicare. All these entitlement programs cost the government a lot of money and will continue to grow in the future. Some say that the government run entitlement programs such as the Social Security is the largest ponzi scheme of all as majority of the funds needed for these programs are borrowed from lenders or paid out of tax revenue from workers.

Since Norway is a surplus country it does not have interest payments. As of July this year the US budget deficit amounted to $1.3 Trillion. This US borrows heavily from other countries including the major lenders China and Japan to fund its operations. As a result , 8% of the US budget goes to the payment of interest on national debt. In 2008, the total interest payments were $253 B. As more funds of borrowed to finance additional social welfare programs and the various corporate bailout programs like TARP, this part of the budget will definitely increase. From another perspective, one can say that 8% of the national expenditure went to waste unnecessarily in the form of interest payments.

The remaining 19% of the US budget went to all other areas such as education, transportation infrastructure,scientific research, etc. It would be better if a higher percentage of government spending is allocated for these areas.

How Costly are Financial Crises?

Financial crises are very costly according to an article in the latest edition Finance and Development magazine of the IMF.

Financial crises occur more frequently in emerging countries than developed countries.Between 1972 and 2007 emerging markets have been hit with more currency crises than banking and debt crises. Developed countries have had virtually no debt crisis in the same period.

Costly-crises


The average fiscal cost of banking crises is under 10% of GDP for the developed world compared to more than 15% of GDP for the emerging countries. Output lost is similar to both emerging and developed countries.

On the causes of a financial crisis, the article notes:

“Whereas each differs in its details, nearly all reflect a confluence of some underlying economic vulnerability and a specific crisis trigger. The underlying vulnerability
is often a credit or asset price bubble, a balance sheet mismatch (excessive borrowing in foreign currency, at too-short maturities, or with inadequate capitalization), whereas the crisis trigger can be almost any event—political turmoil, terms of trade shocks, contagion from other countries, or, to take the example of the current crisis, the collapse
of the subprime market (see table)”

The table below shows the vulnerabilities and triggers of some of the past crises:

Crisis-Triggers

On the recent credit crisis that started in the US, the vulnerabilities were the credit and the house price boom. In addition weaknesses in financial regulation resulted in a buildup of leverage and mispricing of risk. The trigger for the crisis was the collapse of the sub-prime mortgage market. Will the financial reforms that are being proposed block astronomical leverages among financial institutions and consequently prevent future crises?.Only time will tell.