Family Ownership: A Compelling Reason To Invest In Emerging Market Companies?

In developed countries most publicly-listed companies are not controlled by families. In the U.S. less than one-third of the S&P 500 companies are family-owned businesses according to a study by McKinsey&Company. But in emerging markets many of the large public companies are owned by families. This is similar to the situation that existed in the U.S. in the 19th century when much of the economy was dominated by a handful of powerful families like those of the Carnegie, Morgan, Vanderbilit and Rockefeller families.

The U.S. equity market has performed extremely well this year also following a solid performance in 2013. Among the emerging markets, most of them have been poor performers this year with the exception of India and China which have posted double-digit returns. As a result of the strong returns of U.S. stocks two years in a row and poor returns of emerging markets, investors may be tempted to avoid emerging markets.However there are many reasons to invest in emerging stocks one of which is the family ownership of public companies. From an article by David L. Ruff, CFA of Forward Management, LLC:

Why should family ownership be a recurring investment theme? We see some examples of publicly traded family businesses in the U.S. — think of Walmart and News Corp.— and even more in Europe. The family-run model is most common in Asia, where research has found it to be “an important pillar of Asian economies.”1 According to a 2011 Credit Suisse study, family businesses account for 50% of all listed companies and 32% of market cap across 10 Asian countries. Moreover, listed family businesses outperformed local benchmarks in seven of those 10 countries between 2000 and 2010 with those in China, Malaysia, Singapore and South Korea showing the strongest performance.2

We’ve found that an ongoing family presence can contribute positively to a company’s dividend culture. Where families retain a controlling interest or have a significant minority stake, they generally want to keep paying themselves a dividend. Such companies seem to be more focused on long-term stewardship of the enterprise, more patient when investing in expansion projects and less inclined to boost short-term results through the use of leverage or accounting tricks. Family members are also more likely to object to questionable expenditures like over-the-top executive compensation or an ill-advised acquisition.

1 Credit Suisse Emerging Market Research Institute, Asian Family Businesses Report 2011, October 2011.
2 Credit Suisse Emerging Market Research Institute, Asian Family Businesses Report 2011, October 2011.

Source: Family-Owned Businesses: One More Reason Not to Neglect Emerging Markets,  Dec 17, 2014, David L. Ruff, CFA,Forward Management, LLC

The McKinsey report noted that the significance of family-owned businesses with revenues of over $1.0 billion to their national economies in emerging countries is projected to increase in the coming years.

Click to enlarge

Family_owned Businesses in Emerging Markets

Family-owned companies have many advantages over non-family owned companies. From the report:

They can also work fast. As one executive at such a company told us: “All the world is trying to make managers think like owners. If we put in one of the owners to manage, we don’t need to solve this problem.” An owner–manager can move much more rapidly than an executive hired from outside. There’s no need to pass decisions up a chain of command or to put them in front of an uncooperative board, and many of the principal–agent challenges that confront non-family-controlled companies are neutralized. Family-owned businesses can therefore place big bets quickly, though of course there’s no guarantee that they will pay off. Still, manager–owners are largely relieved of the quarter-to-quarter, short-term benchmarks that can define—and distort—performance in Western public companies, so they’re freer to make the hard choices necessary to create long-term value.

Source: The family-business factor in emerging markets, Dec 2014, McKinsey Quarterly

While conventional wisdom holds that families that control public companies may not be shareholder-friendly, it is not always true as discussed above. One of the key takeaways from this post is that when investing in emerging markets investors have to dig deep into the ownership structure of companies and should not avoid public companies that are majority controlled by families. I have written in my earlier posts on how high state ownership in some emerging firms actually is a good thing for investors since they are more likely to payout a higher portion of their profits as dividends.Along the similar line, it is also not a bad idea to invest in family-owned firms in emerging countries.

Related ETFs:

  •  iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM)
  • Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF (VWO)
  • iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF (EWM)

Disclosure: No Positions

Why Always Invest For The Long-Term

When investing in stocks it is always a good strategy to invest for the long-term. Short-term investing is not investing but more must be more aptly called trading.Trading commissions and taxes eat away at any gains that can be made in short-term. Most of the retail investors are better off holding stocks for the long-term.

Trying to time the market is a fool’s game as nobody can predict what can happen from one day to the next. For example, during the month of October equity markets worldwide plunged suddenly for a variety of reasons. U.S. stocks fell by an astonishing 8% from September high to reach October lows.

The following chart shows the Intra-year Declines and Calendar Year Returns for the S&P 500:

Click to enlarge

Invest For Long Term

Data Source:  Standard & Poor’s, Factset, J.P. Morgan

Source: Corrections are Normal, Market Intelligence – October 2014 Anil Tahiliani, Head of North American Equities, McLean & Partners

From the linked article:

As shown in Figure 1, the average decline is 15% in the last 35 years based on the U.S. stock market (S&P 500 Index). When we exclude the recessionary periods and the 1987 crash, the average decline is 10%. Using a longer time period, the average U.S. stock market correction since 1956 is 13% when excluding bear markets (corrections of 20% plus).

Thus this recent correction is in line with historical averages. Investors need to also keep in mind that the current stock market correction is the 19th correction since March 2009.

In 2013, the S&P 500 declined by 6% during the year but still ended the year with a solid return of 30%.Similar decline and rise occurred in most of the years shown as well.

Long-term investors can consider adding the following ten stocks from the S&P 500 index:

1.Company: Abbott Laboratories(ABT)
Current Dividend Yield: 2.10%
Sector: Pharmaceuticals

2.Company: Caterpillar Inc (CAT)
Current Dividend Yield: 2.99%
Sector: Machinery

3.Company: Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ)
Current Dividend Yield: 1.60%
Sector: Food Products

4.Company: General Dynamics Corp (GD)
Current Dividend Yield: 1.76%
Sector: Aerospace & Defense

5.Company: Emerson Electric Co (EMR)
Current Dividend Yield: 2.99%
Sector: Electrical Equipment

6.Company: Procter & Gamble Co (PG)
Current Dividend Yield: 2.76%
Sector: Household Products

7.Company: Fluor Corp (FLR)
Current Dividend Yield: 1.39%
Sector: Construction & Engineering

8.Company: T. Rowe Price Group Inc (TROW)
Current Dividend Yield: 2.01%
Sector: Investment Management

9.Company: Kimberly-Clark Corp (KMB)
Current Dividend Yield: 2.85%
Sector: Household Products

10.Company: Marathon Oil Corp (MRO)
Current Dividend Yield: 2.93%
Sector: Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels

Note: Dividend yields noted above are as of Dec 23, 2014. Data is known to be accurate from sources used.Please use your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.

Disclosure: No Positions

Brazilian Bank Stocks: Are They A Good Buy Now?

The Brazilian equity market entered the bear market territory recently. The IBovespa is down by 2.65% year-to-date. Banks have held up well compared to other Brazilian stocks listed on the US exchanges as shown in the table below.

CompanyTickerPrice on Dec 25, 2014Year-to-date change (%)Industry
GolGOL$5.4619.47%Travel & Leisure
EmbraerERJ$36.9514.82%Aerospace & Defense
BRF S.A.BRFS$23.4012.12%Food Producers
Itau UnibancoITUB$12.884.38%Banks
Banco BradescoBBD$13.074.31%Banks
Fibria CeluloseFBR$12.143.94%Forestry & Paper
Comp. Paranaense de Energia-COPELELP$13.543.04%Electricity
Banco BradescoBBDO$12.91-8.11%Banks
Telefonica BrasilVIV$17.59-8.48%Fixed Line Telecom.
CPFL EnergiaCPL$13.72-14.30%Electricity
Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras-EletrobrasEBR$2.19-15.44%Electricity
TIM ParticipacoesTSU$21.97-16.27%Mobile Telecom.
Banco Santander BrasilBSBR$5.02-17.70%Banks
Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais-CEMIGCIG$4.93-17.70%Electricity
AMBEV S.AABEV$6.04-17.82%Beverages
Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao-CBDCBD$36.47-18.36%Food &Drug Retailers
UltraparUGP$19.17-18.94%Gas,H20&Multiutility
BraskemBAK$13.04-26.95%Chemicals
Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras-EletrobrasEBR$2.92-33.64%Electricity
Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais-CEMIGCIG$5.13-37.44%Electricity
SABESPSBS$6.43-43.30%Gas,H20&Multiutility
Petroleo Brasileiro-PetrobrasPBR$7.39-46.37%Oil & Gas Producers
ValeVALE$8.16-46.49%Indust.Metals&Mining
GafisaGFA$1.56-50.16%HouseGoods&HomeConst
GerdauGGB$3.53-54.97%Indust.Metals&Mining
Companhia Siderurgica Nacional-CSNSID$2.23-64.03%Indust.Metals&Mining

Source: BNY Mellon

Brazilian bank stocks may be attractive now for investors looking to gain exposure to Brazil. According to an article in Euromoney, banks in Brazil are offer strength to the economy and are performing better consider the economy is weak.

From the article:

Brazil’s banks have shrugged off the slow growth of their domestic economy and have been reporting strong growth despite macro-economic challenges.

The strong earnings season in Brazil’s banking system shows that the sector is ready to drive growth through renewed credit extension once the currency period of economic “re-adjustment” has been negotiated, Rubens Sardenberg, chief economist of Febraban, the banking association of Brazilian banks, told delegates to the Felaban conference in Medellin, Colombia in mid-November.

“The [Brazilian] banking system has tier-1 capital of 11% and core 1 and 2 combined of 12%: it is solid, capitalized and liquid despite the current challenges facing the economy,” said Sardenberg. “The banking system isn’t a source of weakness to the economy today, in fact it’s the opposite. It’s a potential strength, as a source of renewed growth through credit extension into the economy, once the readjustment comes and we start to have higher levels of growth again.”

In early November Itaú Unibanco’s third-quarter results showed the bank had its highest recurring return-on-equity (ROE) in nearly five years. The bank’s recurring profit was R$5.6 billion, with a 27.6% ROE, up 10% quarter-on-quarter. Adjusted net income hit R$5.3 billion, also up 10% quarter on quarter. Despite expectations of low growth this year (0.3%) and next (1.0%), according to a survey of 100 economists by the Brazilian Central Bank, Credit Suisse predicts earnings growth of 15% for the leading private and public banks. Profits have been buoyed by rising credit spreads as the country’s Selic rate goes through a further tightening cycle, with improving net interest margins.

Source: Brazil’s banks immune to struggling economy by Rob Dwyer, Dec 2014, Euromoney

Currently Itau Unibanco(ITUB) and Banco Bradesco(BBD) have dividend yields of 3.38% and 4.37% respectively.Banco Santander Brasil is a subsidiary of Spanish banking giant Banco Santander(SAN). The state-owned Banco do Brasil trades on the OTC market under the ticker BDORY and has declined 12.5% year-to-date.

Disclosure: Long BBD, ITUB and SAN

Why Do Germans Stay Away From Stocks

The German stocks market is one of the best performing markets in Europe over the long-term. For example, in the 25 years leading to 2013 the DAX index grew by more than eight times.From 1955 thru 2012, the index had returns in 39 years and negative returns in only 19 years.

In 2013, German stocks generated a 31.7% return based on the MSCI Germany Index.The 1o-year annualized return for Germany is a solid 12.0%. Despite such strong performance and home to many leading world-class companies, most Germans ignore the stock market. In fact, direct equity ownership is under 10% compared to Anglo-Saxon countries which have much higher figures. So I was curious as to why Germans do not invest in stocks.

The following are some of the reasons why equity ownership is very low in Germany:

1. The banking system in Germany is dominated by local savings banks and co-operative banks who tend to offer conservative investment advice to their customers. This is vastly different from other developed markets where many banks are national and they try to encourage their customers into higher risk products such as stocks.

2.In 2003, the Neuer Markt which is similar to the technology-heavy NASDAQ market collapsed. This scared retail investors from investing in the stock market.

3.In the late 90s, Germany privatized state-owned companies such as Deutsche Telekom and Deutsche Post and sold shares to the general public.n fact in 2000, The Economist magazine reported that “Germany was share-crazy. Gone is the image of a nation dourly stuffing its spare cash into a safe-as-houses, low-interest Sparbuch savings account. Money poured into initial public offerings… Germans were opening share-dealing accounts – online, naturally – at a furious rate.”

These IPOs soared during then dot-com bubble and then crashed spectacularly when the bubbled popped. I Germans who ventured into the stock market with these IPOs were burned badly. They decided to never again play the stock market game at least via investing directly as opposed to via pensions, insurance policies and other ways.

Unlike Germany, Americans returned to stocks even after the NASDAQ imploded when the technology bubble crashed and investors lost billions of dollars. This may be attributed to the difference in cultures between Germany and the U.S.. Unlike conservative Germans, Americans are high risk-takers as everyone is chasing the “American Dream”. Moreover with returns from bank deposits and other ways practically meaningless Americans are artificially forced to invest in stocks by the state.

4.The great crash 0f 1929 is still vividly remembered by older Germans and younger generations learn about it from their parents and in schools.

5. Germans tend to invest big in life insurance policies and other similar products because there is a set guarantee of returns. With stocks there is no guaranteed return and even dividends can be suspended or cut for any or no reason by a firm’s management.

Back in 2007, Franz-Josef Leven of the Deutsches Aktieninstitut (German Equities Institute, DAI) said “The risk of stock investing and not having a guarantee of how much of a return an investment will yield is a central reason why Germans tend to avoid stocks.”

6. The “equity culture” is almost non-existent in Germany due to the difference in corporate financing culture between Germany and other developed countries. For instance, German firms have traditionally depended on banks or debt for their financing needs.But most American companies generally rely on selling equity to raise funds. Hence American firms sell shares to the public to generate funds whereas most Germans firms don’t. In the U.S. even today a dot-com with no profits or even revenues can raise millions in capital by selling equity.

Related ETFs:

  • iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund (EWG)

Disclosure: No Positions

Related: