Knowledge is Power: Forecasting, Foreign Stocks, Commodity Sectors Edition

Wales Photo

Near Front Entrance of Caernarfon Castle, North Wales, UK

Buy European Stocks With Both Hands

European stocks were average to poor performers last year.However they can be good bets for this year for many reasons including upcoming elections in countries such as Greece, Ireland, Spain and the UK and more importantly yesterday’s major announcement from European Central Bank.

From a Bloomberg article:

Mario Draghi led the European Central Bank into a new era, committing to a quantitative easing program worth at least 1.1 trillion euros ($1.3 trillion) to counter the threat of a deflationary spiral.

The ECB president shrugged off determined opposition led by German officials with a pledge to buy 60 billion euros every month through September next year in a once-and-for-all push to put more cash into circulation and revive inflation. To assuage critics, the region’s 19 national central banks will make 80 percent of the purchases and take on any risk they carry.

A near-stagnant economy and outright declines in consumer prices forced Draghi’s hand six years after the Federal Reserve took a similar step — and three months after the U.S. central bank ended its purchases. The 67-year-old Italian’s gamble is that the benefits of QE — should it work — outweigh the threat of a backlash in Germany.

Source: Draghi Commits ECB to Trillion-Euro Asset-Purchase Plan to Fight Deflation, Jan 22, 2015, Bloomberg

Indeed by any measure 1.1 Trillion Euros is a ton of money that is bound to have a major impact on asset prices especially equities. Even before this bold move by the ECB, European equity indices were up nicely so far this year. The returns of the major European benchmark indices as of Jan 21, 2015 are listed below:

  • UK’s FTSE 100: 2.5%
  • France’s CAC 40: 5.0%
  • Germany’s DAX: 5.0%
  • Spain’s IBEX35: 0.5%

On the other hand the S&P 500 was down by 1.3% year-to-date.

Investors holding cash to invest can take advantage of the attractive prices of many European stocks. Ten stocks from Euro-zone are listed below with their current dividend yields for potential investments:

1.Company: ING Groep NV (ING)
Current Dividend Yield: Not paid
Sector: Banking
Country: The Netherlands

ING recently paid off the loan it took from the Dutch state and is on track to start dividend payments this year that has been suspended since the global financial crisis.

3.Company: Banco Santander SA (SAN)
Current Dividend Yield: $0.26
Sector: Banking
Country: Spain

Santander raised more than a billion dollar in new capital a few weeks ago but has cut its dividend by two-thirds. The fall in stock price presents an excellent opportunity for long-term investors.

3.Company: Siemens AG (SIEGY)
Current Dividend Yield: 3.57%
Sector:Industrial Conglomerates
Country: Germany

4.Company:Edp Energias De Portugal SA (EDPFY)
Current Dividend Yield: 6.25%
Sector: Electric Utilities
Country: Portugal

5.Company:Air Liquide (AIQUY)
Current Dividend Yield: 2.58%
Sector: Chemicals
Country: France

6.Company: Total SA (TOT)
Current Dividend Yield: 6.12%
Sector:Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Country: France

7.Company: Allianz SE (AZSEY)
Current Dividend Yield: 4.40%
Sector:Insurance
Country: Germany

8.Company: AXA Group (AXAHY)
Current Dividend Yield: 4.79%
Sector: Insurance
Country: France

9.Company: Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (BUD)
Current Dividend Yield: 2.75%
Sector: Beverages
Country: Belgium

10.Company: Technip SA (FTI)
Current Dividend Yield: 4.44%
Sector: Energy Equipment & Services
Country: France

Note: Dividend yields noted above are as of Jan 22, 2015. Data is known to be accurate from sources used.Please use your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.

Disclosure: Long FTI, SAN, ING, AXAHY

Diversify, Diversify, Diversify !

Diversification is one of the simple and effective way to reduce risk and increase potential returns. Putting all eggs in one basket is a recipe for disaster.It is important to diversify not only among asset classes, but also between sectors when investing in stocks, between countries, regions, etc.

The first decade of the 21st century was dubbed the lost decade for stocks. I wrote an article about this topic in Dec, 2009. From that article:

Click to enlarge

 

stock-markets-soared-sank-2000

The chart shows the return of U.S. S&P 500 Index from Dec 31, 2009 thru Dec 14, 2009. The S&P 500 lost 23% in this period. During the same period market indices in developed countries like France, Finland, etc.showed relatively better performance. The main stock market indices in the Netherlands, Japan and Greece performed worse than the S&P 500.

It is interesting to note that while the S&P lost 23%, the Brazilian Bovespa Index gained an astonishing 318% during the same time.This is one reason why US investors should look beyond the US for better returns.

Michael Batnick, Director of Research of Ritholtz Wealth Management also discussed about the lost decade for stocks in an article. His take on this subject also shows the importance of diversification.From the article by Mr.Batnick:

Click to enlarge

1-Lost Decade for Stocks

Lost Decade for Stocks

 

The period from 2000 through 2009 is referred to as a “lost decade” for U.S. stocks. Over this period, investors were not rewarded with an equity risk premium, they were better off in risk-free treasury bills. Not only were they not rewarded, they were punished by two peak-to-trough crashes of greater than fifty percent.

While all that is true for the S&P 500, there were other areas of the market that delivered excellent returns over the same period of time. Emerging Markets were up 154%, U.S. bonds were up over 80% and U.S. Reits were up 175%!

Source: What Lost Decade?, The Irrelevant Investor ; Hat Tip: The Big Picture

As the title of this post says the key point to remember is to diversify.Failure to diversify can lead to no gain or even a loss after a decade of investing.

Related ETFs:

  • iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund (EEM)
  • Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF (VWO)
  • SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
  • SPDR STOXX Europe 50 ETF (FEU)
  • SPDR DJ Euro STOXX 50 ETF (FEZ)

Disclosure: No Positions

Which Sectors are Winners and Which are Losers from Lower Oil Prices ?

Crude oil (Brent)  closed at $48.23 a barrel yesterday on the NYMEX for March delivery. The fall in oil prices in recent months is benefiting some industries and hurting others. For example, convention wisdom says big consumers of oil such as chemical companies, transportation firms, etc. are bound to benefit while oil producers, oil distributors and other related-companies in the industry can be expected to suffer.

I wrote an article recently on how to profit from lower oil prices. I specifically noted that the consumer staples sector will benefit and mentioned a few firms like Kellogg(K), Kraft Foods Group(KFT), etc. as potential investment opportunities. In another post I discussed how lower prices is not a big boon to all chemical firms. A recent post on FT’s beyondbrics blog, discussed about the winners and losers of lower oil prices in Emerging Markets. From that post:

Click to enlarge

Low Oil price-Winners and Losers

 

Industry winners and losers
Moody’s, the rating agency, identifies airlines, food and shipping industries as the outright winners from lower oil prices (see chart). With fuel representing between about 30 per cent and 50 per cent of an airline’s operating expenses, the airlines that are set to benefit most are low-cost carriers which have pared back non-fuel costs. Airlines in the US, in particular American Airlines, Delta and United, are also particular beneficiaries because they have relatively low exposure to the strong US dollar, Moody’s said in a report.

In terms of food, a sustained period of low oil prices would boost household discretionary incomes – thus driving consumer spending. Thus Nestlé, Mondelez, International, Kellogg and Kraft Foods Group – among others – should benefit.

Global shipping companies, particularly container shipping companies, would benefit because fuel accounts for 20 per cent to 25 per cent of costs for container shipping companies, Moody’s said.

Source: Oil price slump cleaves divisions between EM winners and losers, Jan 15, 2015, FT beyondbrics blog

Investors looking to diversify their portfolio can consider adding some of the following ten foreign food and airline stocks:

1.Company: Copa Holdings SA (CPA)
Current Dividend Yield: 3.69%
Sector: Airlines
Country: Panama

2.Company: Avianca Holdings S.A. (AVH)
Current Dividend Yield: 2.61%
Sector: Airlines
Country: Colombia

3.Company: Singapore Airlines Limited (SINGY)
Current Dividend Yield: 3.58%
Sector: Airlines
Country: Singapore

4.Company: easyJet plc (ESYJY)
Current Dividend Yield: 4.97%
Sector: Airlines
Country: UK

5.Company: LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LFL)
Current Dividend Yield: Not paid
Sector: Airlines
Country: Chile

6.Company: Unilever NV (UN)
Current Dividend Yield: 3.71%
Sector: Food Products
Country: The Netherlands

7.Company: Nestle SA (NSRGY)
Current Dividend Yield: 3.19%
Sector: Food Products
Country: Switzerland

8.Company: Danone SA (DANOY)
Current Dividend Yield: 3.03%
Sector:Food Products
Country: France

9.Company: Unilever PLC (UL)
Current Dividend Yield: 3.61%
Sector: Food Products
Country: UK

10.Company: Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (CPCAY)
Current Dividend Yield: 1.51%
Sector: Airlines
Country: Hong Kong

Note: Dividend yields noted above are as of Jan 20, 2015. Data is known to be accurate from sources used.Please use your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.

Disclosure: No Positions