AllianceBernstein: US Stocks Are Priced Attractively

The U.S. equity market indices reached another record high yesterday.The S&P 500 closed at 1,569.19 crossing the high reached in October 2007 before the financial crisis. Similarly the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at another record high of 14,578.54.

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SP-500-Record-Chart

 

Source:  S&P 500 Climbs to Record Amid GDP Growth, Europe Optimism, Bloomberg

Despite the ongoing crisis in Cyprus and a few other European countries and sluggish growth in the domestic economy, U.S. stocks continue to soar higher.

Many investors are wondering if the disconnect between the economy and the equity market continue forever. More importantly, investors who missed the bull market since the lows of March 2009 are trying to determine if this is the right time to jump back into the market given that the S&P 500 has reached another record.

Here are one sobering fact about the U.S. economy:

Though the unemployment rate has dropped to 7.70% as of February, wages have not increased. In fact, wages have decreased substantially across the board in most industries. In fact, even people having a job are depending on food stamps to survive and feed their families. This is shocking in any way one can think of.  An article in The Wall Street Journal noted the following:

In 1975, 8% of all Americans were on SNAP. That percentage is 15% today. Enrollment soared to 47.8 million participants in recent months, an increase of 70%. The Congressional Budget Office predicts unemployment will drop to 4.6% by 2017, but that SNAP enrollment will only drop to 43.3 million people.

In an article published last week,  Seth J. Masters is Chief Investment Officer of Bernstein Global Wealth Management, a unit of AllianceBernstein states that U.S. stocks are priced attractively.

From “US Stocks: Third Time’s the Charm“:

At 1550, the S&P 500 has regained the peak it reached in March of 2000 (when the tech bubble burst) and again in October of 2007 (before the credit crunch hit). But we think the third time’s the charm: We think the stock market still has room to rise because equities are now more attractively valued and of higher quality than they were at previous peaks.

The price is right. The S&P 500 now trades at about 13.7 times consensus estimates of this year’s earnings—below its price multiple in October 2007 and much lower than in March 2000, as the display below shows. So stocks are priced attractively, in our view.

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US-Stocks-are-attractive

 

Some of the other factors noted by Mr.Masters in favor U.S. equities are: S&P 500 companies have higher-quality balance sheets, expectations are modest, U.S. economic growth to increase slightly this year,  firms are returning more to shareholders in the form of dividends and increasing share buybacks.

For investors willing to bet on U.S. stocks, ten S&P components are listed below with their current dividend yields:

1.Company: Ecolab Inc (ECL)
Current Dividend Yield: 1.15%
Sector: Chemicals

2.Company: Emerson Electric Co (EMR)
Current Dividend Yield: 2.94%
Sector: Electrical Equipment

3.Company: Halliburton Co (HAL)
Current Dividend Yield: 1.24%
Sector: Energy Equipment & Services

4.Company: First Horizon National Corp (FHN)
Current Dividend Yield: 1.87%
Sector: Banking

5.Company: Kimberly-Clark (KMB)
Current Dividend Yield: 3.31%
Sector: Household Products

6.Company: Marathon Oil Corp (MRO)
Current Dividend Yield: 2.02%
Sector: Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels

7.Company: Visa Inc (V)
Current Dividend Yield: 0.78%
Sector: Electronic payments processing

8.Company: Franklin Resources (BEN)
Current Dividend Yield: 0.77%
Sector: Diversified Financial Services

9.Company: LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB)
Current Dividend Yield: 2.35%
Sector: Chemicals

10.Company: Praxair Inc.(PX)
Current Dividend Yield: 2.15%
Sector: Industrial Gases

Note: Dividend yields noted are as of Mar 28, 2013

Related ETFs:

  • SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
  • iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index (DVY)
  • SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY)
  • Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG)

Disclosure: No Positions

The Top 25 Global Banks Ranked By Losses 2012

Banks in Cyprus opened today after being closed for 12 days due to the ongoing crisis. The most anticipated event of the crisis – namely a good old-fashioned bank run – did not occur. Instead it appears that this Cyprus drama will drag for a few months.

The tiny island of Cyprus was thrown in the international spotlight a few days ago. Up until that moment investors and everyone else were focused on PIIGS for many months. Indeed the poorest country in Europe but known for being the birthplace of democracy, Greece dominated the media for years in a row requiring multiple bailouts and is still struggling to get its act together. Portugal and Spain faded off with their crises solved one way or another. Italy has been in the news recently as it is still trying to put its political and fiscal situation back in order.

Similar to other bailed-out countries,  the worst culprit to cause the crisis in Cyprus are the banks.The island’s tiny banks took in huge amounts in deposits from Russian oligarchs and local people alike. But instead of running the bank conservatively like banks are run in emerging and frontier countries, as an EU member Cyprus gambled heavily on Greek bonds and other high-risk investments leading to this crisis. The good thing about this crisis is that Cyprus is not a major economy in Europe and hence the crisis will be contained sooner or later.

When I was browsing through the top global banks that sustained the most losses last year I noticed two Cypriot banks appear among the top 25 banks.

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Top-25-global-banks-ranked-by-losses

Source: The Banker

Cyprus Popular Bank and Bank of Cyprus are in the above chart.When this list was first published last July I did not realize that Cyprus would one day revive the perpetual European sovereign debt crisis.

All the banks in the above list are European banks with the exception of  Hudson City Bancorp, Inc. (HCBK) of the U.S. Among the major British Llyods Banking Group (LYG) and Royal Bank of Scotland(RBS) were the worst performers and are still a long way to go from reaching their pre-crisis levels. Investors are better off avoiding these two banks like the plague.

Disclosure: Long LYG

South Korea’s 13 Largest Companies in 2012

The South Korean companies from the Fortune Global 500 rankings for last year are listed below:

Country RankCompanyGlobal RankCityRevenues($ millions)
1Samsung Electronics20Seoul148,944
2SK Holdings65Seoul100,394
3Hyundai Motor117Seoul70,227
4POSCO146Seoul62,230
5LG Electronics196Seoul48,977
6Hyundai Heavy Industries203Ulsan48,485
7GS Caltex235Seoul43,280
8Korea Electric Power264Seoul39,296
9Kia Motors266Seoul38,988
10S-Oil383Seoul28,808
11Korea Gas429Seongnam25,721
12Woori Finance Holdings449Seoul24,435
13Hyundai Mobis465Seoul23,736

Source: Fortune Global 500, Fortune

POSCO (PKX) is one of the world’s largest steel makers.

Related ETFs:

iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund (EWY)

Disclosure: No Positions

Relationship between Healthcare Spending and Health

High healthcare spending does not necessarily mean better health. Even with lower spending people can live healthier lives and live longer. Generally developed countries tend to high healthcare expenditures whether funded by the state or by private individuals.

I came across the following charts showing the relationship between healthcare expenditures and life expectancy.

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Healthcare-Comparison-1

Healthcare-Comparison-2

 

Source: Global Investor 2.12, November 2012, Credit Suisse

Is China The World’s Financial Superpower?

China is a net creditor nation and the U.S. is a the world’s largest net debtor nation. The Chinese are the largest holders of U.S. Treasury securities with total holdings exceeding $1.2 Trillion as of January this year. Every year the U.S pays billions of dollars as interest for this debt to China.

According to an article by Visiting Professor John Ross of Antai College of Economics and Management, Jiao Tong University, Shanghai states that China’s financial strength is unparalleled. From the article:

To grasp the underlying dynamic of the global financial industry it should be grasped that it is a mistake to understand the strength of China’s economy by statistics such as that China produces as much steel as the next 38 countries combined, more cement than the rest of the world put together, that it is the world’s largest market for TVs, refrigerators, mobile phones, cars, or that it has more than twice as many internet users as the US. These figures are impressive but far from illustrating the real core of China’s economic power. The real center of China’s economic strength, which determines both its domestic and global expansion, is unparalleled financial strength.

China has yet to overtake the US in GDP but the annual sum of China’s finance available for global or domestic investment, that is its savings, are already twice those of the US. As Figure 1 shows China’s savings in 2011, the last year for which there are comprehensive figures, were $3.6 trillion compared to $1.8 trillion in the US.

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China-US-Gross-Domestic-Saving

Source:  China – the World’s Emerging Financial Superpower, Key Trends in Globalisation

But savings are the ‘raw material’ of the financial system. It is this huge flow passing through China’s banking system which is making China the world’s ‘financial superpower’. China’s $3.3 trillion foreign exchange reserves, easily the world’s largest, are a powerful adjunct but it is the year after year generation of domestic finance on a scale which has no international parallel which is the unmatched core of China’s economic strength.

To see the dynamic this is creating in the global finance industry it is useful to give a comparison of the main indices for China’s and the US’s banks – 2013’s figures, when they are published, will further reinforce these trends.

US banks reporting in 2012 were still ahead of China’s on revenue – $550 billion compared to $404 billion, and on assets – $10,079 billion compared to $9,895 billion. But on profits China’s banks had already overtaken their US competitors – $105 billion compared to $68 billion. China’s banks also held the lead in stock market valuation – $992 billion to $847 billion.

At the beginning of 2013, by market capitalization both China (ICBC, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China), and the US (Wells Fargo, J.P. Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America) had four out of the world’s top ten banks by market capitalization. But the total valuation of the Chinese banks was $706 billion compared to the US $620 billion. China’s ICBC is the world’s largest bank by both profit and capitalization.

In other financial fields – insurance, mortgage lenders, credit cards etc – the US still maintains a lead over China. But in core banking strength there is already essentially no difference between China and the US.

Chinese banks are increasingly becoming more powerful at the global level. A review of the Top 1000 Global Banks for 2012 published by The Banker magazine shows that Chinese banks accounted for just 4% of global profits in 2007 but in 2012 they accounted for about one-third of total global profits. Among the Top 1000 China’s ICBC took the third position – the highest ever spot for a Chinese bank. In addition, Chinese banks took four positions among the top 10 banks.

More importantly, among the top 25 banks by profits, the top three were banks from China. The most profitable three banks in the ranking were ICBC, China Construction Bank(CICHY) and Bank of China. The fifth position went to Agricultural Bank of China(ACGBY). US-based JP Morgan Chase(JPM) was ranked the fourth.

At a household level, China’s personal saving rate at more than 50.0 percent was the highest in the world in 2012. The U.S. savings rate at was under 4.0 percent for most the year.

With high savings rate and low consumption China’s gross domestic savings is bound to rise. On the other hand, as a consumption-based economy the U.S. is unlikely to catch up with China in the savings area quickly.

Hence in summary it may not be far-fetched to say that China is the World’s Financial Superpower.

Disclosure: No Positions