On The Gold and Silver Price Super-Cycles

Commodity prices including those of precious metals tend to go through super-cycles. Booms and busts occur as a result of these cycles. These cycles last for many years.

In the latest super-cycle gold prices have climbed consistently in the last decade up until 2011 when prices reached a peak of just over $1,900.00. Since then prices have been volatile. On Friday it closed at $1,609.20  in New York.

10-year gold price chart:

Click to enlarge

10-Year-Gold-Price-Chart

Source: Kitco

The following chart shows real gold and silver prices from 1850 to 2012:

Gold-Silver-Real-Prices-1850-to-2012

The tables below shows the dates of super-cycles and dates of booms and busts:

Gold-Silver-SuperCycle-Dates

Gold-Silver-Boom-Busts-Dates

It is interesting to note the boom and bust lengths for these two precious metals. During the depression of the 1930s gold had one of the long boom periods. The recent long boom lasted 6 years from 1977 thru  1983.

Source:

FROM BOOM TO BUST: A TYPOLOGY OF REAL COMMODITY PRICES IN THE LONG RUN

by David S Jacks, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University, Canada

NBER Working Paper No. 18874, March 2013

Related ETFs:

  • SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
  • iShares Silver Trust (SLV)

Disclosure: No Positions

Saudi Arabia: The World’s Largest Petroleum Producer and Net Exporter in 2012

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) has a population of about 26.0 million. The government type is a monarchy run by King and Prime Minister Abdallah bin Abd al-Aziz Al Saud according to the CIA’s World Factbook. He belongs to the Al Saud family which controlled the country since it was created. In fact, the country is named after the family. As a result hundreds of members of this family and relatives hold almost all of the key positions in the government.

Saudi Arabia has almost one-fifth of the world’s largest proven oil reserves and is the largest producer and exporter of total petroleum liquids in the world. Hence the economy is largely oil-based and the state controls major economic activities. In 2012, the estimated GDP based on purchasing power parity was about $740.0 billion. Saudi Arabia’s trade partners are most of the major developed countries and emerging countries due to their dependence on Saudi oil. The country is also leading member of the OPEC.

Saudi Arabia follows a process called “Petro-Dollar Recycling”. Under this long-standing arrangement between the Kingdom and Western powers, the Kingdom receives US dollars in exchange for selling the oil in the global market. Then after spending some of the funds for running the government and maintenance of the monarchy, the remaining funds are channeled back by Saudi Arabia into Western countries via banks and other avenues. High oil prices in the past few years mean billions of extra dollars pour into Saudi coffers almost on a consistent basis.

Saudi Arabia was the world’s largest producer of petroleum products and net exporter in 2012 according to a report by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Click to enlarge


Saudi-total-production-2012

Source: EIA

From the report:

Saudi Arabia was the world’s largest producer and exporter of petroleum and other liquids in 2012, producing an average of 11.6 million barrels per day (bbl/d) and exporting an estimated 8.6 million bbl/d (net). Saudi Arabia produces more than three times as much of these liquids as the next largest member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Iran), and as much as the rest of the Arab Middle East put together.

In addition to leading the world in production and exports, Saudi Arabia has an estimated 268 billion barrels of proved oil reserves—over 16% of the global total—and is the only country in the world with extensive spare oil production capacity, which can help cushion market disruptions. While Saudi Arabia has about a hundred major oil and natural gas fields, more than half of its proved reserves are contained in eight fields. Saudi Arabia’s (and the world’s) largest oil field (Ghawar) alone contains an estimated 70 billion barrels of proved reserves, more than the proved reserves in all but seven other countries.

In 2012, 16% of Saudi liquids exports were sent to the United States, accounting for 13% of total U.S. liquids imports. While Canada is the prime supplier of U.S. liquids imports, Saudi Arabia remains an important supplier.

Saudi Aramco, the main oil company of the Kingdom is a National Oil Company (NOC) and is fully owned by the state.Hence it is not possible to invest in the company. For the first 10 months of 2012, Saudi Arabia ranked second in petroleum exports to U.S. after Canada.

The following chart shows the export destinations for Saudi crude oil:

Click to enlarge

Saudi-crude_oil_exports-Destinations-2012

How to invest in Saudi Arabian stocks?

Unfortunately none of the Saudi companies are currently listed on the US markets as ADRs or otherwise. Van Eck has filed to launch two country-specific ETFs this year for Saudi Arabia.

For investors that have access to the Saudi Stock Exchange (or Tadawul) one way to invest in the top firms is via The HSBC Amanah Saudi 20 ETF that was launched in 2011.

From an article in the UK-based ETF Strategy site:

The HSBC Amanah Saudi 20 ETF aims to offer investors capital growth over the medium to long-term by replicating the performance of the HSBC Amanah Saudi 20 Equity Index.

The index, created by Standard & Poor’s, is made up of the top 20 Shariah-compliant Saudi companies listed on Tadawul.

The fund, which comes with a Total Expense Ratio (TER) of 0.75%, will use physical replication in tracking its index – thereby physically owning the underlying securities of the index it is tracking.

The fund is up 4.3% YTD according to a factsheet by FE Trustnet Offshore.

Disclosure: No Positions

The Largest Australian Companies by Revenues 2012

The nine Australian companies that appear in the Fortune Global 500 list are shown below:

Country RankCompanyGlobal RankCityRevenues($ millions)
1BHP Billiton108Melbourne71,739
2Wesfarmers171Perth54,147
3Woolworths175Bella Vista53,559
4Commonwealth Bank of Australia227Sydney44,306
5Westpac Banking229Sydney44,112
6National Australia Bank254Docklands40,521
7Australia & New Zealand Banking Group291Docklands36,731
8Telstra438Melbourne24,968
9Caltex Australia486Sydney22,810

Source: Fortune Global 500, Fortune

Four of the largest banks in Australian are in the list.

Related ETFs:

iShares MSCI Australia Index (EWA)

Disclosure: No Positions

Mexico is Becoming More Attractive to U.S. Manufacturing Firms

Mexico’s economy boomed when the country signed the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) nearly two decades ago. The manufacturing sector especially thrived as U.S. firms shifted their operations to Mexico to take advantage of the cheap labor costs. As a result Mexico’s share of U.S. manufactured goods import rose from slightly about 4% in 1994 to about 13% in 2001 according to a report in the latest issue of IMF’s Finance & Development magazine.

Then the party almost came to a halt when communist China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. China’s entry into the WTO gave the country a strong edge over over Mexico since China could freely export its goods to the U.S. without any import restrictions.  Hence China’s goods exports to the U.S. rose significantly while Mexico’s exports  suffered.

From the report:

Between 2001 and 2005, Chinese manufacturing exports to the United States expanded at an average annual rate of 24 percent, while Mexico’s export growth decelerated sharply from about 20 percent a year to 3 percent on average each year over the same period. As a result, China’s share of U.S. manufacturing imports almost doubled by 2005, eroding the previous gains in market share by Mexico (see Chart 1).

Click to enlarge 

Share-of-US-Manufacturing-Imports

In recent years Mexico has been slowly regaining its lost manufacturing capacity as U.S. firms shift production to the country from China and other countries. This shift can be attributed to two reasons: labor cost and transportation cost.

Mexico-China-Wages-Comparison

The above chart shows that wages in China are rising yearly and is getting closer to Mexican wages. Wages in the manufacturing sector in Mexico has remained fairly stable over the years while wages in China has been increasing. So China is becoming less competitive for U.S. firms.

Another factor that makes Mexico more attractive to U.S. companies is transportation costs. Since Mexico is much closer to the U.S. than China, and a stable rail and road network exists between the two countries costs of shipping goods from Mexico to the U.S. is lower. Shorter distance also means that goods can reach U.S. destinations faster from Mexico than transported by ships from China. Unless wage inflation in China stabilizes manufacturing firms may continue to move out to other countries including Mexico, Vietnam, Philippines, etc. From an investment perspective, it is wise to keep on the Mexican economy and equities.

Mexican-Import-Costs

 

Source: The Comeback by Herman Kamil and Jeremy Zook, Finance & Development, march 2013,  IMF

Related ETFs:

iShares MSCI Mexico Capped Investable Market (EWW)
iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (FXI)

Disclosure:  No Positions

The Largest US Companies By Revenue 2012

The largest U.S. companies from the Fortune Global 500 list for last year are listed below. These firms were ranked based on their revenues:

Country RankCompanyGlobal RankCityRevenues($ millions)
1Exxon Mobil2Irving452,926
2Wal-Mart Stores3Bentonville446,950
3Chevron8San Ramon245,621
4ConocoPhillips9Houston237,272
5General Motors19Detroit150,276
6General Electric22Fairfield147,616
7Berkshire Hathaway24Omaha143,688
8Fannie Mae26Washington137,451
9Ford Motor27Dearborn136,264
10Hewlett-Packard31Palo Alto127,245
11AT&T32Dallas126,723
12Valero Energy35San Antonio125,095
13McKesson37San Francisco122,734
14Bank of America Corp.46Charlotte115,074
15Verizon Communications50New York110,875
16J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.51New York110,838
17Apple55Cupertino108,249
18CVS Caremark56Woonsocket107,750
19International Business Machines57Armonk106,916
20Citigroup60New York102,939
21Cardinal Health61Dublin102,644
22UnitedHealth Group63Minnetonka101,862
23Kroger75Cincinnati90,374
24Costco Wholesale78Issaquah88,915
25Freddie Mac79McLean88,262
26Wells Fargo80San Francisco87,597
27Procter & Gamble86Cincinnati82,559
28Archer Daniels Midland92Decatur80,676
29AmerisourceBergen94Chesterbrook80,218
30INTL FCStone102New York75,498
31Marathon Petroleum106Findlay73,645
32Walgreen107Deerfield72,184
33American International Group109New York71,730
34MetLife114New York70,641
35Home Depot116Atlanta70,395
36Medco Health Solutions118Franklin Lakes70,063
37Microsoft119Redmond69,943
38Target120Minneapolis69,865
39Boeing123Chicago68,735
40Pfizer126New York67,932
41PepsiCo133Purchase66,504
42U.S. Postal Service135Washington65,711
43Johnson & Johnson138New Brunswick65,030
44State Farm Insurance Cos.140Bloomington64,305
45Dell147Round Rock62,071
46WellPoint150Indianapolis60,711
47Caterpillar155Peoria60,138
48Dow Chemical156Midland59,985
49Bunge160White Plains58,743
50United Technologies163Hartford58,190
51Comcast167Philadelphia55,842
52Kraft Foods170Northfield54,365
53Intel173Santa Clara53,999
54United Parcel Service177Atlanta53,105
55Best Buy184Richfield51,116
56Lowe's190Mooresville50,208
57Prudential Financial195Newark49,045
58Amazon.com206Seattle48,077
59Merck207Whitehouse Station48,047
60Lockheed Martin211Bethesda46,692
61Coca-Cola212Atlanta46,542
62Express Scripts Holding213St. Louis46,128
63Sunoco217Philadelphia45,765
64Enterprise Products Partners226Houston44,313
65Safeway232Pleasanton43,630
66Cisco Systems237San Jose43,218
67Sears Holdings245Hoffman Estates41,567
68Walt Disney249Burbank40,893
69Johnson Controls251Milwaukee40,833
70Schlumberger260Houston39,540
71Morgan Stanley261New York39,376
72Sysco262Houston39,324
73FedEx263Memphis39,304
74Abbott Laboratories268Abbott Park38,851
75DuPont270Wilmington38,719
76Google277Mountain View37,905
77Hess278New York37,871
78United Continental Holdings283Chicago37,110
79Honeywell International284Morris Township37,059
80CHS287Inver Grove Heights36,916
81Humana289Louisville36,832
82Goldman Sachs Group290New York36,793
83Ingram Micro294Santa Ana36,329
84Supervalu296Eden Prairie36,100
85Oracle300Redwood City35,622
86Delta Air Lines308Atlanta35,115
87Liberty Mutual Insurance Group312Boston34,671
88World Fuel Services313Miami34,623
89New York Life Insurance317New York34,394
90Plains All American Pipeline319Houston34,275
91TIAA-CREF323New York34,079
92Aetna327Hartford33,780
93Sprint Nextel328Overland Park33,679
94News Corp.332New York33,405
95General Dynamics339Falls Church32,677
96Allstate340Northbrook32,654
97HCA Holdings343Nashville32,506
98American Express344New York32,282
99Tyson Foods345Springdale32,266
100Deere348Moline32,013
101Murphy Oil352El Dorado31,446
102Philip Morris International355New York31,097
103Nationwide359Columbus30,698
104Tesoro366San Antonio29,927
1053M368St. Paul29,611
106Time Warner381New York28,974
107Northrop Grumman395Falls Church28,058
108DirecTV406El Segundo27,226
109Publix Super Markets407Lakeland27,179
110McDonald's410Oak Brook27,006
111Avnet414Phoenix26,534
112Tech Data415Clearwater26,488
113Macy's417Cincinnati26,405
114Rite Aid421Camp Hill26,121
115International Paper424Memphis26,034
116Travelers Cos.431New York25,446
117Staples437Framingham25,022
118Alcoa439New York24,951
119Northwestern Mutual441Milwaukee24,861
120Raytheon442Waltham24,857
121Halliburton444Houston24,829
122Eli Lilly454Indianapolis24,287
123Emerson Electric456St. Louis24,234
124Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance457Springfield24,226
125Occidental Petroleum458Los Angeles24,216
126AMR463Fort Worth23,979
127Fluor473Irving23,381
128TJX478Framingham23,192
129Goodyear Tire & Rubber487Akron22,767
130Xerox488Norwalk22,626
131Aflac497Columbus22,171
132Manpower500Milwaukee22,006

 

Source: Fortune 500, Fortune

Of the 500 firms in the list, 132 are from the U.S. Exxon Mobil(XOM) took the top rank followed by Walmart Stores(WMT), Chevron(CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP) and General Motors(GM) among the top five. U.S. Postal Service was ranked at 42 with a revenue of $65.0 billion. UPS(UPS) and FedEx(FDX) took the 54th and 73rd spots.

Ten companies from the above list are listed below for further research:

1.Company: Emerson Electric Co (EMR)
Current Dividend Yield: 2.90%
Sector: Electrical Equipment

2.Company: ConocoPhillips(COP)
Current Dividend Yield: 4.33%
Sector: Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels

3.Company: American Express Co (AXP)
Current Dividend Yield: 1.33%
Sector: Consumer Finance

4.Company: Abbott Laboratories(ABT)
Current Dividend Yield: 1.67%
Sector: Pharmaceuticals

5.Company: Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ)
Current Dividend Yield: 1.82%
Sector: Food Products

6.Company: Caterpillar Inc (CAT)
Current Dividend Yield: 2.40%
Sector: Machinery

7.Company: Schlumberger NV (SLB)
Current Dividend Yield: 1.70%
Sector: Energy Equipment & Services

8. Company: Fluor Corp (FLR)
Current Dividend Yield: 1.01%
Sector: Construction & Engineering

9.Company: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Current Dividend Yield: 3.09%
Sector: Pharmaceuticals

10.Company: General Dynamics Corp (GD)
Current Dividend Yield: 3.25%
Sector: Aerospace & Defense

Note: Dividend yields noted are as of Mar 21, 2013

Disclosure: No Positions

To download the complete Fortune 2012 list in Excel click here.