7 Behavioral Bias To Avoid In Investment Management

The Financial Post has published an interesting article today on behavioral biases that investors should avoid. The author David Pett notes the following seven biases:

  1. Representativeness
  2. Familiarity 
  3. Overconfidence
  4. Anchoring 
  5. Attachment bias
  6. Gambler’s fallacy
  7. Herd mentality

Source: 7 stock picking behaviours you should avoid, Financial Post

An important bias noted in the article:

Familiarity is a dangerous inclination that can thwart the benefits of global diversification. Many investors concentrate too much on opportunities in their own country because it’s what they know and understand best.

“Investors generally feel more comfortable with their home market and allocate investments accordingly, even if it results in a poorer risk–return trade-off for their portfolio,” said analysts at The Vanguard Group Inc. in a 2012 report.

Home country bias is one of the main emotional biases that many investors can’t seem to ignore. A typical U.S. investor has most of the assets invested in U.S. assets including stocks and bonds despite the availability of better opportunities abroad. Even many Financial Advisors, who should be better in their profession than the investors that hire them, fall into this trap. The key point that investors should remember that in a globalized world, companies are not tied to one country anymore and they are not patriotic in any way. Hence investors should change their mindset accordingly and not get too attracted to home country companies. Investors looking for income for example, can get much higher yields in companies located just north of the border in Canada or in far away places like Australia, Chile, etc.

The whole article is worth a read.

Here is a cool chart I came across a while ago on the “Types of Herd Behavior”:

Click to enlarge

Types-of-Herd-Behavior

Source: Unknown

A Look at Foreign Defense Sector ADRs

One of the sectors that seem to perform well regardless of the state of the economy is the defense sector.  For example, U.S. defense contractors have held up well despite budgets cuts. While many of the major U.S. defense companies trade on the organized exchanges none of the foreign firms are listed on them. Instead all these firms trade on the OTC markets as shown below with their current dividend yields:

S.No.CompanyTickerDividend Yield as of Apr 26, 2013Country
1BAE SystemsBAESY5.15%United Kingdom
2BBA AviationBBAVY3.84%United Kingdom
3Chemring GroupCMGMY3.85%United Kingdom
4CobhamCBHMY3.56%United Kingdom
5European Aeronautic Defence & Space-EADSEADSY1.08%Netherlands
6FinmeccanicaFINMYN/AItaly
7MeggittMEGGY3.37%United Kingdom
8MTU Aero EnginesMTUAY1.88%Germany
9Qinetiq GroupQNTQY1.65%United Kingdom
10Rolls-RoyceRYCEY2.24%United Kingdom
11SafranSAFRY1.77%France
12ThalesTHLEYN/AFrance
13Ultra ElectronicsUEHPYN/AUnited Kingdom
14VitecVTEPYN/AUnited Kingdom
15Zodiac AerospaceZODFY1.51%France

 

France-based Safran (SAFRY) is one of the best performing stocks with the stock up over 13.0% YTD. British aerospace and defense giant BAE Systems (BAESY) has had an performance since the merger proposal with EADS fell apart late last year.

Note: Dividend yields noted are as of April 26, 2013. Data is known to be accurate from sources used.Please use your own due diligence before making any investment decisions

Disclosure: No Positions

The Eight Largest Indian Companies By Revenue 2012

The eight largest Indian firms by revenues that were in the Fortune Global 500 list for 2012 are listed below:

Country RankCompanyGlobal RankCityRevenues($ millions)
1Indian Oil83New Delhi86,016
2Reliance Industries99Mumbai76,119
3Bharat Petroleum225Mumbai44,582
4Hindustan Petroleum267Mumbai38,885
5State Bank of India285Mumbai36,950
6Tata Motors314Mumbai34,575
7Oil & Natural Gas357Dehradun30,746
8Tata Steel401Mumbai27,739

Source: Fortune Global 500, Fortune

The state-owned oil company Indian Oil had the highest revenue at over $86.0 billion followed by Reliance Industries, one of India’s largest business  groups. Among the eight firms listed four are in the energy sector. Tata, India’s top business group is represented by Tata Steel and Tata Motors in this list.

Tata Motors Ltd (TTM) trades on the NYSE and currently has a market cap of over $17.0 billion.

Disclosure: No Positions

German Blue-Chips Are Increasing Dividend Payouts

The Germany economy recovered quickly from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and continues to remain strong despite the ongoing fiscal crises in other parts of Europe. The largest economy in Europe is also highly export-oriented. Hence many German companies especially the larger ones depend more on overseas markets than their domestic and European markets. Even the smaller Mittelstand firms focus on exports and hold leadership positions in the making of industrial components that they supply to the larger firms.

Germany exports about 40% of its goods to Europe and the rest to other parts of the world. Currently the unemployment rate remains at a 20-year low of 6.8% and is projected to fall to 6.6% next year. Exports is projected to rise by 1.6% this year but increase to 5.0% next year. The overall economy will grow by just 0.5% this year per the German government according to a Reuters report.

Investors looking to gain exposure to European firms can consider some of the German companies due to the strength of the German economy. Another important factor that makes German firms attractive is the rising dividend payments. A report published last month by Deutsche Welle noted that German blue-chips will pay out a record amount in dividends  to their shareholders this year. From the report:

Germany’s DAX-listed stock market heavyweights were planning to pay out a total of 27.6 billion euros ($35.65 billion) in dividends to their shareholders, a study by the auditing and consulting company Ernst & Young showed on Friday.

The figure marked a new record, surpassing the 27.3 billion euros granted on aggregate in 2008. “The DAX companies continue to be in good shape despite the crisis in many parts of Europe,” Ernst & Young partner Thomas Harms said in a statement.

A closer look at the data revealed a rather heterogeneous picture, showing Deutsche Telekom shareholders as the biggest winners, with the German telecommunications giant willing to spend some 3 billion euros in terms of dividends, following its performance last year.

Source:  German blue-chip companies pay record dividends, Deutsche Welle

Not all the DAX-listed companies are increasing their dividends. BASF (BASFY), the world’s largest chemicals company has announced to increase its dividend per share from 2.50 euros in 2011 to 2.60 euros in 2012. Among the notable dividend increases, tiremaker Continental AG(CTTAY)  increased its dividends by half on a percentage basis and clothing company Adidas (ADDYY) reported a 35% increase in dividends for 2012. Commerzbank (CRZBY), Lufthansa (DLAKY) and ThyssenKrupp will not pay a dividend. According to Ernst & Young, six firms have no dividend changes and seven will pay less than last year.

Ten DAX components to consider for long-term investment are noted below with their current dividend yields:

1.Company: BASF SE (BASFY)
Current Dividend Yield: 3.84%
Sector: Chemicals

2.Company:RWE AG (RWEOY)
Current Dividend Yield: 7.41%
Sector:Multi-Utilities

3.Company: E.ON SE (EONGY)
Current Dividend Yield: 5.83%
Sector:Multi-Utilities
E.ON ADR goes ex-dividend on 5/1/2013 with a dividend payment of $1.42 per share. Withholding taxes of 26.375% will be deducted for U.S. residents.

4.Company: Allianz SE (AZSEY)
Current Dividend Yield: 2.99%
Sector:Insurance

5.Company: Continental AG (CTTAY)
Current Dividend Yield: 1.71%
Sector:Auto Components

6.Company: Deutsche Telekom AG (DTEGY)
Current Dividend Yield: 7.25%
Sector:Telecom

7.Company: Henkel AG & Co KGaA (HENKY)
Current Dividend Yield: 1.56%
Sector:Household Products

8.Company: Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co (FMS)
Current Dividend Yield: 0.91%
Sector: Health Care Providers & Services

9.Company: Adidas AG (ADDYY)
Current Dividend Yield: 1.25%
Sector:Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods

10.Company: Linde AG (LNEGY)
Current Dividend Yield: 1.77%
Sector: Chemicals

Note: Dividend yields noted are as of April 26, 2013. Data is known to be accurate from sources used.Please use your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.

Disclosure: Long EONGY, RWEOY, HENKY

The 10 Leading Oil Importing Countries

The U.S. topped the list of oil importing countries based on 2011 data as shown in the graphic below:

Click to enlarge

Top-Oil-Importing-Countries

Source: Should the U.S. Expand Offshore Oil Drilling?, The Wall Street Journal, April 12, 2013

Here are some interesting facts from the EIA site:

  • The U.S. was a net importer in 2011 and imported 45% of petroleum products consumed.
  • U.S. dependence on foreign oil has been on the decline since 2005.
  • The U.S. is the largest petroleum consumer and consumed 18.8 million barrels per day (MMbd) in 2011.
  • Canada, not any Middle Eastern country, is the top supplier of crude oil.
  • The following chart shows U.S. production, consumption and imports:

US-oil-Chart

Source: How dependent are we on foreign oil?, EIA

An earlier article on the major players supplying the world oil market can be found here.