Are Spanish Stocks A Good Buy Now?

Spain was one of the hardest hit economies during the global financial crisis and the following European sovereign debt crises. Before the crises the Spanish economy grew rapidly over many years attracting international investors. As a result of the crises,  the economy tanked primarily due to the bursting of the once red-hot real estate industry.The country was saturated with “white ghost” infrastructure projects like massive airports with no flights, unsold residential apartments and condos, etc. Not surprisingly investors fled Spanish stocks.

After years of low growth the Spanish economy finally seemed to have turned a corner. Last year the benchmark IBEX index rose over 21%. It is up by 3.80% year-to-date, the best among major European indices. On the other hand the S&P 500 is mostly flat YTD.

From a recent Reuters article on Spanish equities:

By contrast, Spain’s service sector registered its fastest pace of growth in six-and-a-half years in December, fuelling optimism the economy could expand more than expected in 2014.

Spain and Italy – another economy dubbed as a “peripheral” European market compared to the “core” of Germany and France – are slowly recovering from the euro zone’s sovereign debt crisis, and the rise in the IBEX also lifted Milan’s FTSE MIB stock market by 0.6 percent.

Some traders and investors feel there is more value in those “peripheral” markets than the likes of France or Germany, with the German DAX equity index having already hit record highs.

“There’s a real swing in momentum towards economies such as Spain,” said Scott Meech, co-head of European equities at Union Bancaire Privee (UBP).

Meech’s favoured Spanish stocks include Spanish bank Bankinter, insurer Mapfre and media company Mediaset.

Source: Spanish stock market outperforms weak European bourses, Reuters

The following chart shows the 5-year performance of the STOXX Spain 20 Index which is comprised of the 20 largest blue-chip Spanish firms:

Click to enlarge

Stoxx Spain 20 Index - 5 years Return

Note: The returns shown are in US dollar(price) terms.

Source: STOXX

It is interesting that while in the past five years the STOXX Spain 20 Index is up by about 27%  in the past one year alone it has increased 27%. The chart is showing an upward trend since 2012.

From an investment standpoint, Spanish stocks are looking attractive now given the improving economic situation and the changing perception of global investors. Though stock prices were much cheaper last year it is still not to late to buy them at these prices. Spanish stocks currently have a dividend yield of 3.9% and a P/E ratio of 19.8 relative to US stocks’ yield of 1.9% and P/E of 19.7 according to the latest FT market data.

Five Spanish firms trading on the US markets are listed below with their current dividend yields:

1.Company: Banco Santander SA (SAN)
Current Dividend Yield: 8.80%
Sector: Banking

2.Company: Telefonica SA (TEF)
Current Dividend Yield: 2.29%
Sector: Telecom

3.Company: Iberdrola SA (IBDRY)
Current Dividend Yield: 0.61%
Sector: Electric Utilities

4.Company: Gas Natural SDG SA(GASNY)
Current Dividend Yield:
Sector: Natural gas and electric utilities

5.Company: Repsol SA (REPYY)
Current Dividend Yield: 3.14%
Sector: Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels

Note: Dividend yields noted above are as of Jan 10, 2014. Data is known to be accurate from sources used.Please use your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.

The iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF(EWP) gives exposure to top Spanish companies.There are 24 firms in the portfolio with the top 10 accounting for about 72% of the fund.Over 44% of the fund is  invested in Banco Santander(SAN), Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria(BBVA) and Telefonica (TEF).The ETF has about $982 million in assets and the 12-month yield is 2.86%.

Disclosure: Long SAN, BBVA

Performance Comparison: Canada vs. Australia ETF

Canada and Australia are two of the commodity-based developed economies. Canada depends heavily on the U.S., its top trading partner while the Australian economy is more tied to Asia especially resource-hungry China.   Hence the economic growth of these two countries depend on the U.S. and China respectively. In terms of equity returns, how did Canadian equities perform relative to their Australian peers?

The following chart shows the performance of the iShares Canada ETF against the Australia ETF over the past 5 years:

Click to enlarge

EWC-vs-EWA-5-years

The following chart shows the performance of the iShares Canada ETF against the Australia ETF over the long-term:

EWC-vs-EWA-LT

 

Source: Yahoo Finance

In 5 years Australia has outperformed Canada (EWC).But in the long-term Canada beat Australia (EWA). It is interesting to note that Canadian and Australian stocks followed almost followed each other for the most part.

Related ETFs:

  •  iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
  • iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Disclosure: No Positions

DAX Index Returns By Year From 1955 To 2012

The DAX Index is the German equity market’s benchmark index. The index is similar to the Dow Jones Industrial Average in that it is comprised of 30 blue-chip companies traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.

DAX had  a base value of 1,000 as of Dec 31, 1987. Yesterday it closed at 9,497.84. The chart below shows the performance of DAX since 1958:

Click to enlarge

DAX-Index-Return-since-1058

Source: Wikipedia

While the DAX mostly stayed flat up until 1983 it took off after that year.

The following chart below shows the DAX returns by year from 1955 to 2012:

DAX-Index-Return-by-year

Source: 25 Years of the DAX:Wealth for Everyone, Allianz Global Investors

Writing in the above referenced research report, Hans-Jörg Naumer, Global Head of Capital Markets & Thematic Research Allianz Global Investors noted the interesting fact on the long-term performance of DAX:

In hindsight, there is no doubting that the DAX has created wealth. It has increased more than eightfold in its nearly 25 years of existence. Put another way: Someone who put 1,000 (or close to 2,000 DM) euros into the DAX back then would have around 8,500 euros at the end of May 2013. It has been,despite all the highs and lows, a good investment.It’s interesting to note: 46 % of DAX performance came from dividend distributions.

Two other points called out by Mr.Naumer are:

  • The DAX has generated 7.9% per annum in the past 25 years while German government bonds yielded 6.8% on an average.
  • Since 1955 the returns have been mostly positive in the vast majority of the years. In 39 years the returns were positive compared to 19 years in which returns were negative.

During the global financial crisis of 2008, the index fell between 40% to 50%. However since then it has generated positive total returns every year except 2011. Similar to the US equity markets the DAX also posted solid gains in the late 1990s during the high-tech boom years. For example, the index had a total return of 30 to 40% in 1999 .

Related ETF:

  • iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund (EWG)

Disclosure: No Positions

Could The U.S. Dollar Lose Its Reserve Currency Status?

The U.S. dollar has been the world’s preferred reserve currency since the end of World War I. The fact that about 60% of the world’s foreign exchange reserves are held in U.S. dollars proves that the world continues to maintain the faith in the dollar.

The U.S. is a debtor country. The government borrows heavily from both the domestic public and foreigners in order to fund its expenses.  In fact as of Jan 6, 2014 the total public debt outstanding is $17,310,216,315,568.94 with the debt held by the public at $12,333,870,746,301.06 and the rest as intragovernmental holdings according to the U.S. Department of the Treasury.

Foreigners hold about $5.6 Trillion of U.S. debt as of Oct 2013. China is the largest creditor to the U.S. holding about $1.3 Trillion of US debt.

From The Absolute Return Letter, Nov 2013 by Niels C. Jensen of Absolute Return Partners LLP:

The Americans seem to take their status for granted. Perhaps they need a reminder that reserve currency regimes come and go (chart 9). Given its status as a large debtor nation with insufficient domestic savings to finance its deficits internally, it could prove very painful, should the rest of the world decide that it is time for a change. The longer QE goes on for, the more likely that is to happen.

Click to enlarge

World-Reserve-Currency-Regimes-Since-1400

Source: Euthanasia of the economy?, The Absolute Return Letter, Nov 2013, Absolute Return Partners LLP

Despite being a large debtor country I believe it is highly unlikely that the dollar would lose its reserve currency status anytime soon. However we can think of some scenarios where the dollar could go from the world’s most preferred currency to a normal currency or even a worthless currency. Some of the scenarios which can make the U.S. dollar lose its coveted reserve currency status include the world losing faith in Uncle Sam for whatever the reason, China asking the debtor to repay its loans in full, social unrest, political chaos, etc.

South Africa’s FTSE/JSE All-Share Index Returns By Year

Page Updated: Mar 31, 2018

The FTSE/JSE All-Share Index is the leading benchmark of the South African equity market. It contains 165 companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) based on market capitalization.  The dividend yield of the index as of Dec 31, 2013 was 2.72%.

The Top 10 Holdings and the weights in the index at the end of 2013 are shown below:

Click to enlarge

FTSE-JSE-All-Share-Index-Top-10-Components

Source: FTSE

The FTSE/JSE All-Share Index Returns By Year from 1974 thru 2017 are shown in the chart below:

Click to enlarge

The table below lists the FTSE/JSE All-Share Index Returns By Year from 1974 thru 2016:

YearJSE All Share Index Return
1974-0.8%
1975-18.9%
1976-10.9%
197720.6%
197837.2%
197994.4%
198040.9%
19810.8%
198238.4%
198314.4%
19849.4%
198542.0%
198655.9%
1987-4.3%
198814.8%
198955.7%
19905.1%
199131.1%
1992-2.0%
199354.7%
199422.7%
19958.8%
19969.4%
1997-4.5%
1998-10.0%
199961.4%
20000.0%
200129.3%
2002-8.1%
200316.1%
200425.4%
200547.3%
200641.2%
200719.2%
2008-23.2%
200932.1%
201019.0%
20112.6%
201226.7%
201321.4%
201410.9%
20155.1%
2016-0.0%
2017 21%

Source: Allan Gray 

Download Data:

Related ETF:

  • iShares MSCI South Africa Index (EZA)

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Disclosure: No Positions