German Stocks Have Entered Bull Market

German stocks as measured by the benchmark DAX Index have entered a bull market last week. In this post lets review a few points about the DAX index and German equities in general.

The year-to-date return of the DAX:

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DAX YTD return chart

The 5-year return of the DAX:

DAX 5-year return chart

Note: Data shown are as of Aug 12, 2016

Source: Yahoo Finance

Key points:

  • Since the lows reached in February of this year, the DAX has soared over 20 percent as of Aug 9, the standard definition for a bull market.
  • However unlike other major indices, the DAX return includes dividends. So technically the Dax Kursindex which excludes dividends was up about 18%.
  • The P/E ratio of DAX is about 24.
  • The dividend yield of the index is 2.90%. Since this is high the overall DAX return is boosted unlike other indices.
  • According to Daniel Weston, Chief Investment Officer of Aimed Capital, the bull market in German equities is not supported by economic growth. He noted that since bond yields are negative, yield-seeking investors are chasing stocks with their juicy dividends leading to soaring prices.
  • One of the best performing stocks in Germany is the DAX component Adidas AG (ADDYY). The ADR has shot up by over 78% year-to-date as of Aug 12, 2016.
  • From a long-term investment return perspective, the DAX is a fantastic wealth creator.

Sources:

Disclosure: No Positions

Dividend Payers and Growers Outperform “the Market”

Dividend paying/growing stocks generally outperform non-dividend paying stocks. When dividends are reinvested the compounding effect gives a boost to the overall total return of an equity investment. This effect becomes especially strong over long time periods for obvious reasons. Stocks that not only pay dividends but also grow their dividends consistently year after year tend to yield the highest total return relative to just dividend payers and non-payers.

The following chart shows the dramatic difference in returns between Dividend Payers/Growers  vs.“the Market”:

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Dividned Growers and Payers vs the Market Chart

Source: Investing for Dividend Growth, Touchstone Investments

From the research report:

As companies become more profitable, they may share more by increasing their dividends. The chart below illustrates a hypothetical
example of dividend payers or growers based on a simulation of the S&P 500 Index. This select group of dividend payers and growers
has outpaced the hypothetical $1,000 investment in the S&P 500 Index on a total return basis by more than a two-to-one margin over
the past 24 years. In fact, the compounded growth of reinvested dividends of this hypothetical model of the Index has exceeded the total
return of the S&P 500 Index (and far outperformed the growth of reinvested S&P 500 Index dividends).

Related ETFs:

  • iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend ETF (DVY)
  • SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY)
  • Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG)
  • Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM)

Disclosure: No Positions

Knowledge is Power: Going Global, Diversification, Preferred Stocks Edition

Old Articles for Reference:

View From Cable Car, Wales

View From Cable Car, Wales

The Ten Most Liquid ADRs Mid-Year, 2016

Citi recently published the Citi Depositary Receipt Services 2016 Midyear Report. The report has many interesting facts on depository programs. For instance, the number of unsponsored ADRs trading on the US market increased to over 1,640 due to strong investor demand.

The Ten Most Liquid ADRs as of Mid-Year 2016 based on Trading Volume are:

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Top 10 DR Programs-By Trading Volume

Note: LSE denotes the London Stock Exchange. So the two stocks noted are not American Depository Receipts.

The Ten Most Liquid ADRs as of Mid-Year 2016 based on Trading Value are:

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Top 10 DR Programs-By Trading Value

Note: Data as of June 30, 2016

Source:  Citi Depositary Receipt Services 2016 Midyear Report, Citi

Brazilian stocks top the ranking based on trading volume since global investors are returning to Brazil this year and also most the Brazilian ADRs’ prices have plummeted to $10 or less. So trading volume goes higher when prices are low. Once top-ranked firms such as Value(VALE), Petróleo Brasileiro S.A (PBR), etc. are trading for less than $10 a share.

Among the top 10 ADRs by trading value, just three are from the developed markets. Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) of China tops this list. Currently the Amazon(AMZN) of China has a market cap of over $242 billion.

Disclosure: Long PBR

Chart: Gold Prices Since 1920

Gold prices closed at $1,357.70 on Friday, August 5th. After the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 prices peaked at about $1,800 an ounce and there were forecasts for prices to cross $2,000. But gold has declined substantially since that peak to close under $1,400 now.

As a commodity similar to oil, the price of gold is highly unpredictable and is subject to a gazillion factors. The very long-term price of gold shows how the price reacts to critical political and economic events. The chart below shows the price of gold since 1920:

Click to enlarge

Gold Price Since 1920

Source: Unknown

Related ETF:

  • SPDR Gold Shares  ETF (GLD)

Disclosure: No positions