Who can Fool More of the People for More of the Time

Every four years elections are held to elect a President. However there many fundamentals flaws with the way this process is setup one of which is the unique and mysterious electoral system. I came across an interesting articles this weekend on why the US election may present a good opportunity to buy US stocks. From an article by Rowan Dartington’s Guy Stephens at FE Trustnet:

What marks this US election out as extraordinary is that both candidates already have enough revealed skeletons to fill a cemetery, and the really scary thing is that the victor will lead the most powerful nation in the world.

In most open democracies, neither candidate would have even made the starting blocks. No wonder Jeremy Paxman delivered a documentary the other week asking the question as to how the US electoral system has produced two of the most hated candidates in history.

This is why you cannot rule out Trump because the choice literally is between an apparent sexist bigot and an establishment figure with suspected acts of dishonesty with regard to confidential matters of state. Neither scores highly on the ‘fit to govern’ scale.

One feature that should be at the forefront of many voters’ minds is how that individual will represent the country on the world stage as an international statesman/woman.

However, we are all aware of how introspective the typical US citizen can be and so perhaps it is no surprise that the US voter doesn’t appear reviled like much of the rest of the world.  Arguably, this is where Theresa May scores highly compared to Jeremy Corbyn.

There is also little doubt as to how Angela Merkel of Germany, Francois Hollande of France, Shinzo Abe of Japan and Xi Jinping of China rank in terms of international charismatic leaders.

Regardless of one’s political persuasion the likes of Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair commanded great respect on the world stage and raised the profile of the UK above our natural ranking. The US electoral system has jettisoned all the worthy alternatives in this area which is odd.

In many other democracies the voters choose the party and the party members select their leader – in the US the voter is choosing the president based on simplistic measures watered down for the public and it really is a case of who can fool more of the people for more of the time rather than far more complex and unknown issues only fully understood within the walls of Congress.

When US citizens are interviewed as to which way they are going to vote, they say Trump or Clinton, not especially Democrat or Republican. In the UK, we vote for the party and consider their policies, with far less emphasis on the prime minister.

Promoting either of these US candidates to this elite club, in the most powerful position on the world state beggars belief and credibility for the US as a nation. An election should be about the party and its policies, not one individual and what a choice!

Source: Why investors will need cash after a Clinton or Trump victory, FE Trustnet

From A tale of two Americas by Varghese K.George at The Hindu:

Three months after Reagan made his Berlin speech, on September 2, 1987, Mr. Trump — then a 41-year-old real estate tycoon — made his first move that could be called political. He took out an advertisement in the New York papers on the “stupidity” of American politicians and spoke to CNN’s Larry King in an interview. What he said proves that what has not changed in the last 30 years are Mr. Trump’s world view, words, and style.

He told Mr. King: “Looking at our own stupidity, other countries are laughing at us. This is a great country. But we have stupid leaders… The country is losing $200 billion a year [in trade deficit]… Japan, Saudi Arabia… these are countries that would be wiped off the face of the earth if it were not for the U.S.A. This country will go bust in a couple of years. Japan and all these countries must pay for protection.” He was asked whether America should protect its trade through protectionist policies or by making its businesses more competitive. “There is no free trade in the world, it is virtually impossible for an American company to go and do business in Japan or Saudi Arabia. In the meantime Japan is coming to this country and buying up all of Manhattan,” he said. He added: “Our farmers are dying, the homeless are all over the streets of our cities… We give so much money to the wealthiest countries of the world, but we can’t take care of our own people — the poor, the sick, homeless, the farmers, those people we are not helping.”

Source: A tale of two Americas, The Hindu

The full article is worth a read.

Performance Of US Stock Market After Heavy One Day Declines

The US stock market as measured by the S&P 500 Index has fallen for nine days in a row due to the uncertainty over US elections. According to a journal article this is the longest losing streak for the index since 1980. Market participants are griped by fears of Trump winning the race or launching a legal battle if Clinton wins.

Should Trump win the election, the current prediction among experts is that stocks may crash on the day after the election with estimates reaching as high as 10%. Hence if the market falls 10% or even 15% what should an investor do?.

The key to remember is that the best time to buy stocks is when there blood on the streets. Just because Trump, a Republican, gets elected does not mean that the US will turn into a banana republic overnight. In fact, the chances of that happening are next to zero. So regardless of who wins the election, smart investors can take advantage of cheaper equity prices if other investors panic and dump stocks.

Generally US stocks have performed well in the years following a big one day decline. According to an article by Andrew Oxlade of Schroders, the S&P 500’s biggest declines have been followed by annual returns that average 14.9% over five years, From the article:

The US stockmarket has delivered average annual returns of 14.9% in the five years following its worst days of the past quarter century, according to analysis by Schroders.

The data underlines the historic resilience of shares over longer timeframes, even following major shocks.

The biggest rebound was a return of 164%, or an annualised 21%, in the five years after a crash on 20 November 2008, when the S&P 500 fell by 6.7%.

That date fell during a particularly gloomy phase of the 2008-09 financial crisis. Shares in struggling Citigroup fell by 26% on the day, shortly before a rescue deal was announced for the bank.

Given the abject mood of the time investors may have struggled to accept that an investment of $10,000 in the market made at the start of that turbulent day would have grown to $26,400 within five years, before charges.

Click to enlarge

sp500-ten-worst-one-day-falls-and-returns-in-following-years

Source: How the US stockmarket performs after heavy one day falls, Schroders

Similar to the US, the UK equity market also performed well following major one day declines. The strongest recovery for the FTSE All-Share was after during the Global Financial Crisis and when the British banking sector was hit hard on on March 2, 2009. The index soared by 126% in the following five years.

Related ETFs:

  • SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
  • iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWU)

Disclosure: No Positions

Blackrock: U.S. Stocks Are Expensive Compared to Foreign Stocks

The US equity market as measured by S&P 500 is up by just over 2% year-to-date. Compared to this return, most developed European markets in the negative territory with the exception of UK’s FTSE 100 which is up by about 10% since many companies in the index derive most of their revenue from emerging markets which are doing well this year. Among the emerging markets, all the major markets in Latin America are up so far this year.

A post by Russ Koesterich of Blackrock published yesterday noted that US stocks are expensive while international stocks are not. From the article:

As shown in the chart below, U.S. equities are trading at over 20x trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) and over 26x cyclically adjusted earnings (Shiller P/E). Valuations at these levels have historically been associated with lower forward returns. In contrast, equity markets in Europe, Japan and emerging markets appear somewhere between fairly valued and relatively inexpensive.

sp500-pe-ratio-1954-to-2016

For long-term investors, the final point is particularly important. Value is often irrelevant in the short term, but over the long term valuations tend to mean-revert. For example, during the past 60 years, annual changes in the P/E of the S&P 500 had a -0.20 correlation with the change the following year.

Source: Are international markets back?,  Russ Koesterich, Blackrock Blog

Related ETFs:

  • SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
  • iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM)
  • Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (VWO)
  • SPDR EURO STOXX 50 ETF (FEZ)

Disclosure: No Positions

Keep Calm and Buy Stocks When Markets Are Volatile

One of the best time to buy stocks is when markets are volatile. Currently global equity markets are extremely shaky due to uncertainty over the US elections and investors’ fear of the Republican candidate winning the White House. Those who are able to invest new cash in the markets should buy stocks as markets swing wildly driven by greed and fear.

I came across an article by Andrew Craig of Plain English Finance at Money Observer site in which he notes the following three points for building wealth with equity investing.

First, you need to own all or, at least, most major assets in most major regions of the world. This should include cash, bonds, property, stocks, commodities (including precious metals) and a good split between the US, Asia and Europe (including Switzerland and the UK).

During the financial crisis of 2008-09, stocks plunged by over 50%. But gold increased by more than 20% in 2009 and oil prices hit an all-time high. So diversification across regions and assets is important.

Secondly, you should automate your investments by direct debit each month. This achieves ‘smoothing’ or ‘averaging in’. It removes you from the equation – which is usually a good idea.

The S&P 500 index in the US fell from 1,500 in October 2007 to the rather spooky level of 666 in March 2009 (a 56 per cent collapse. Ouch!). It then went from 666 all the way to north of 2,200 a few weeks ago and is now at 2,133 as I write (a 220 per cent recovery).

Automating the investment process eliminates trying to time the market and other human foolishness.

Finally, you must have confidence in your game plan and stick to your guns.

Professors Elroy Dimson and Paul Marsh of the London Business School have shown that investing in UK smaller companies has achieved an annual return of no less than 15.4 per cent going back to 1955! 15.4 per cent a year for 60 years!

Small caps usually yield higher returns than large caps. So it is not surprising that British small caps richly rewarded long-term investors. The key point here is that investors should hold high-quality stocks for years or even decades in order to build substantial wealth.

Source: Why stock market crashes don’t matter, Money Observer

Here are some picks that investors can consider adding to their portfolios:

Railroads: Canadian National Railway Co (CNI), CSX Corp (CSX),Norfolk Southern Corp(NSC), Union Pacific Corp (UNP)

Consumer Staples: Kimberly-Clark Corp (KMB), General Mills Inc (GIS), Reckitt Benckiser Group plc (RBGLY), Unilever NV (UN), Nestle SA (NSRGY)

Utilities: NextEra Energy Inc (NEE), Southern Energy (SO),Exelon Inc (EXC), Edison International (EIX), Empresa Nacional de Electricidad SA (EOC)

Consumer Discretionary: Diageo PLC (DEO), Church & Dwight Co Inc (CHD),British American Tobacco PLC (BTI)
Disclosure: Long CNI, CSX, UNP, NSC, RBGLY, GIS and NEE

On The Relationship Between US Trade and GDP 1960-2015

Global trade is very important  for economic growth. So protectionist trade policies will lead to stunted growth or a recession. Increased global trade has tripled the share of trade in US national income in the past 50 years as shown in the graph below:

Click to enlarge

us-trade-vs-gdp-chart

Source: November 2016 Trump – another Brexit moment?, The Absolute Return Letter, Absolute Return Partners