Mark Mobius: Argentina Stocks Are Cheap

The Argentina stock market is one of the best performing market so far this year. The benchmark Merval index is up 39% year-to-date. As a frontier market Argentine stocks are highly volatile and most global investors avoided them until last year. Years of political and economic chaos made Argentina the pariah of the international investing community. However all that changed last year when a new government was formed under President Mauricio Macri and the country’s economy stabilized.

Though the benchmark Merval Index is up 39% this year, emerging markets investment guru Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group stated that Argentina stocks are cheap but raised concerns about liquidity in an interview to Bloomberg. From the Bloomberg article discussing the interview:

Almost a year after a new government swept into Argentina promising to loosen capital controls and lure foreign investors, Mark Mobius is betting on the country’s stocks. But he says the options are still limited for traders looking to ride the rally that made the Merval one of the world’s top performing equity gauges this year.

Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, which has $26 billion under management, says he will remain focused on American depository receipts of Argentine companies as long as rules require that portfolio investments stay in the country for 120 days, a policy that he says limits market liquidity.

“It’s difficult for us to invest if there’s no guarantee we can get the money out at short notice,” Mobius said in an interview from Dubai. “We invest in countries for a long time, but it’s part of our obligations to investors. The currency is already pretty stable, so it all depends on how things go with the foreign exchange rule. That will give more confidence to us and other investors.”
Argentina’s stocks have surged 41 percent this year after President Mauricio Macri was elected in late 2015 on a pledge to reinvigorate an economy damaged by years of government interference including currency controls and capital restrictions. Even after the rally, the Merval’s price-to-adjusted-earnings rating is just two-thirds of the level for Brazil’s Ibovespa.

Source:  Mobius Says Argentina Stocks Cheap, But Liquidity Still a Drag, Bloomberg

The five- year return chart of the Merval is shown below:
Click to enlarge
merval-index-return-five-years
Source: FT

How to invest in Argentina?
The simple and easiest way to access Argentina stocks is via ADRs or ETFs. Currently less than 20 Argentine firms trade on the US markets. Among the major companies, investors can consider BBVA Banco Frances(BFR), Grupo Financiero Galicia(GGAL) and Banco Macro(BMA) in the banking sector and oil producer Petrobras Argentina S.A.(PZE). The complete list of Argentina ADRs can be found here.

The Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) offers another way to easily invest in Argentine equities. The fund has net assets of over $88 million and has an expense ratio of 0.75%.

Disclosure: No Positions

What Stocks To Buy For The Trump Presidency

The stunning victory is now behind us and the next step for investors is to figure out how to position their portfolios for the new administration. More specifically investors can buy stocks of certain sectors that are projected to perform well while avoiding some sectors. This is because based on the economic plans put forward by Mr.Trump some sectors will be winners while others will be losers.

Some sectors that may perform well under the Trump administration are listed below:

  • Coal Industry – A list of coal stocks can be found here.
  • Railroads – Coal mined must be transported to their destinations such as power plants. Railroads that investors can consider include CSX, NSC, UNP, CNI and CP.
  • Banking industry – Banking stocks may benefit when regulations are reduced.
  • Biotech and Drug industries – GILD, TEVA, AMGN, JNJ, GSK, LLY, etc.
  • Healthcare industry
  • Companies in the Defense sector – Examples include GD, LMT, NOC, BA, etc.
  • Industrials – Firms in this industry include CAT, MMM, GE, etc.

Disclosures: Long CNI, CSX, NSC and UNP

The Worlds Largest Publicly Traded Firms: 2011 vs, 2016

The list of the world’s largest publicly traded companies by market cap has changed tremendously in the past five years. While oil and gas firms dominated the the list five years ago today the growth of digital economy has led to tech firms topping the list. Out of the many oil majors in the top 10 in 2011 only Exxon Mobil(XOM) is in the ranking.

Click to enlarge

change-in-the-information-age-2-20161013

change-in-the-information-age-2-20161013

Source:Change in the Information Age: investment opportunities, Henderson Global Investors, Nov 2, 2016

The plunge in oil prices has crushed oil companies in the past few years. But the rise of social media and hype about technology such as cloud services has propelled the value of tech firms such as Amazon(AMZN), Facebook(FB), Alphabet(GOOG), etc.

Disclosure: No Positions

Going Global For Dividend Stocks

US stocks generally tend to have lower dividend yields than many foreign countries. For example, the yield on the S&P 500 has stayed around 2% for many years now. Investors looking to find higher dividend yields can look overseas. For example, in some countries such as Chile companies are required by law to payout a certain percentage of their earnings as dividends to shareholders.

Investors searching for higher yields and are willing to venture abroad can find a rich hunting ground. The following ten stocks with dividend yields higher than 2%:

1.Company: Banco de Chile (BCH)
Current Dividend Yield: 4.14%
Sector:Banking
Country: Chile

2.Company:Banco Santander- Chile (BSAC)
Current Dividend Yield: 4.79%
Sector: Banking
Country: Chile

3.Company: Telstra Corp Ltd (TLSYY)
Current Dividend Yield: 6.30%
Sector:Telecom
Country:  Australia

4.Company: National Grid PLC (NGG)
Current Dividend Yield: 4.96%
Sector: Multi-Utilities
Country: UK

5.Company: Singapore Airlines Limited (SINGY)
Current Dividend Yield: 4.67%
Sector: Airlines
Country: Singapore

6.Company: BCE Inc (BCE)
Current Dividend Yield: 4.61%
Sector: Telecom
Country: Canada

7.Company: Westpac Banking Corp (WBK)
Current Dividend Yield: 6.06%

Sector:Banking
Country: Australia
8.Company: Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior SA (BLX)
Current Dividend Yield: 5.75%
Sector: Banking
Country: Panama

9.Company: Nordea Bank AB (NRBAY)
Current Dividend Yield: 7.17%
Sector: Banking
Country: Sweden

10.Company: ING Groep NV (ING)
Current Dividend Yield: 5.63%
Sector: Banking
Country: The Netherlands

Note: Dividend yields noted above are as of Nov 4, 2016. Data is known to be accurate from sources used. Please use your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.

Disclosure: ING, WK, BCH