On Globalization and the Economic Output of G-20 Countries

Globalization has been a boon to global economic growth in the past few decades. Millions of people in the developing world have been lifted out of poverty and entered the middle class. However globalization is a zero-sum game with clear winners and losers. In the developed world workers who lost their jobs due to globalization can be considered as losers while those who had capital to deploy and profit from the process have been winners. A recent article in the journal discussed how Apple led to a creation of an Apple city in China employing some 250,000 workers. Clearly they are beneficiaries of globalization and US workers who lost their jobs in the electronic manufacturing industry or who might have been employed in the industry are losers.

At a country level, some countries are winners of globalization while others were left behind. According to Amrita Narlikar, a professor and the president of the German Institute of Global and Area Studies the concept of globalization is not clearly explained by policy markers to their constituents. From a DW article quoting her:

For all intents and purposes, one of the G20’s declared goals is to try to advance globalization – a tall order in a world where many countries either feel left behind or refuse to subscribe to the concept.

Amrita Narlikar, a professor and the president of the German Institute of Global and Area Studies, who has written extensively on globalization, sees reason for concern about its future. “There is a level of inadequacy, and there is a backlash, not just in terms of poor people feeling left behind but also in how US President Trump’s stance on trade and climate change and in the rise of right-wing and left-wing movements,” she told DW.

One of the most pressing issues is how to transfer the wealth and prosperity gained through globalization to those people who have been left behind or have been hardest hit by the effects of globalization and are increasingly putting their faith in anti-globalization movements. “Policymakers are doing a bad job of explaining what (globalization) means, even though there is plenty of clear evidence,” Narlikar said.

Globalization works – sometimes

Narlikar pointed to the correlation between globalization and the alleviation of extreme poverty. Though there were 1.9 billion people globally classified as living in extreme poverty in 1990, that figure fell to 836 million in 2015, a decline of 14 percent. Narlikar laments that that “kind of message is not getting out with the passion of intensity that is needed to impart information.”

Angel Gurria, the secretary-general of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, argues in a similar vein. “It’s because we are mostly focused on the growth element rather than inclusion,” he told DW. “We need to focus on what we call the nexus between productivity and inclusion,” Gurria said. “Of course, the idea is to increase productivity, but, if you do not have the element of inclusion, what will happen is that productivity will run into a wall; there will be rejection.” However, Gurria pointed out, if the focus is merely on redistribution growth will suffer.

Source: Pursuing globalization after G20 resistance in Hamburg, DW

It remains to be seen how the next phase of globalization will play out.

In the Age of Disruption Which Sectors Offer Investment Opportunities?

Disruption of incumbent businesses or entire industries is the latest strategy sweeping Silicon Valley. Thousands of young and highly educated professionals working in the startup world are finding ways to do things efficiently and cheaply. For example, Uber and Airbnb are examples of two disruptors that have cracked the taxi and hotel industries respectively. For ages local taxi companies were oligopolies in the regions they operated that resisted change and charged very high rates for consumers. Unable to find alternatives consumers were forced to pay up. Then came Uber and changed the whole game for the once omni-potent and politically well connected taxi industry.

While in the past it took many years to disrupt industries these days the number of years has declined. Powered by limitless venture capital and technological advances thousands of startup firms are working to shake up not just certain companies but entire industries. The following chart shows the number of years it took to disrupt incumbent businesses:

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Source: Are Robots Disruptive? … or could they be the saving grace for ageing societies?, July 2017, The Absolute Return Letter, Absolute Return Partners

Since disruption can crush incumbent companies to go out of business investors have to decide which sectors to avoid and which sectors to invest in. This is especially important for growth-oriented long-term investors. Two industries that will struggle moving forward are the media and advertising industries as digital companies uproot their dominance with better products and reach for every ad dollars spent by advertisers.

Despite the threat of disruption, certain sectors or sub-sectors of industries are difficult to be disrupted. Hence they offer investment opportunities. In a recent article, Sammy SuzukiKent HargisChris Marx of Alliance Bernstein identified pockets of sectors that investors can research for potential growth stocks. From the article:

#1: AMAZON WILL RULE ALL RETAIL

Amazon has built a near-indomitable shopping machine, with its recent $13.7 billion takeover bid for Whole Foods marking its latest foray. It’s not hard to imagine this e-commerce behemoth taking over all retail itself.

But, while in-store traffic is declining, there are certain items consumers still prefer to buy in a physical store (Display). Off-price apparel and home-goods chains, auto-parts retailers, and sellers of items such as men’s suits and luxury goods are holding up well amid the retail gloom. They’ve crafted business strategies focused on personalized services and encouraging customer loyalty and frequent store visits.

Examples include off-price apparel retailers, which lure shoppers to their doors by offering ever-changing, limited-lot designer-brand assortments and a treasure hunt appeal. Auto-parts stores benefit from an aging car fleet and do-it-yourselfers who don’t have time to spare when making repairs and want to talk to someone knowledgeable if they have questions.

Another takeaway: consumers are buying experiences over stuff. That insight inspired makeovers at some restaurant chains and the major US movie-theater chains, which have buoyed attendance and profits with upgrades such as cushy recliner seating; premium concession items, including alcohol; and alternative content, such as live events and classic films on slow nights.

Source: Defying Disruption: Three Ways to Profit, June 26, 2017, Alliance Bernstein

Some of the companies in the sectors identified above are listed below:

  • AutoZone(AZO), O’Reilly Automotive Inc(ORLY) and Advance Auto Parts, Inc.(AAP) in the auto-parts industry.
  • Home Depot Inc (HD) and Lowe’s Companies(LOW) in the furnishings/hardware sector.
  • Western Alliance Bancorporation(WAL) and CVS Health Corp(CVS) in the drug sector.
  • Kroger Co(KR), Wal-Mart Stores(WMT) and Costco Wholesale Corporation(COST) in the food sector.

The key takeaway is that not all industries will be disrupted and that consumers will order everything they need online. So investors can still find excellent companies to invest in for the future. A few of such companies are listed above.

Disclosure: No Positions

US Non-Immigrant Visas Issued by Nationality 2016

The U.S. issues millions of visas each year in two categories – immigrant and non-immigrant visas. Most of the visas issued are the later category which includes all types of visas such as tourist visas, business visitor visas, work visas, etc. In Fiscal Year 2016, nearly 10.4 million such visas were issued worldwide. About 45% of the total visas issued were given to persons from just three countries: China, Mexico and India.

US Non-Immigrant Visas Issued by Nationality 2016

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Data Table:

Source: U.S. Department of State

It is interesting that almost all of the above countries are developing countries. None of the developed European countries appear in the list. Compared to the top three countries, the number of visas issued to Russians is very relatively small.

Though non-immigrant visa holders are expected to return to their country of origin before the expiration date of their visas, some of them inevitably don’t leave the country. These people simply over-stay their visas and go underground adding to the millions of illegals already living the country.

Two Charts Show Stocks Offer The Best Long-Term Returns

Equities offer the best returns over the long-term over other asset classes. For instance, stocks can yield inflation-beating returns. There are very few asset types that can yield returns that beat inflation.

The chart below shows the long-term global GDP growth and the performance of various asset types. Stocks easily beat cash and bonds over the long-term.

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Source: Datastream, Barclays. List of indices used: Equities MSCI World (USD) until 2001, MSCI AC World (USD) from 2001 onwards; Bonds Merrill Lynch US Treasury 7-10 years until 1980, Datastream
10 year US treasuries from 1980 onwards; Cash Federal Reserve US treasury bill 3 month

In addition, stocks have yielded positive returns more than 50% of the time in the long term. Stocks are the only asset class that can offer the best return over other asset classes over long periods.

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Source: In Focus: Markets as we see them, Barclays

The main point to remember is that holding stocks in a well-diversified portfolio is important to earn higher returns over the long-term especially earning a high real return (which accounts for inflation) and not just nominal returns.