Two Interesting Articles About The U.S.

MaClean’s recently published an article that discussed the factors that make the U.S. great. The author concluded the piece saying the country’s greatness is a myth and that the reality is average based on factors such as income, education, infrastructure, etc.

From the article:

The belief in American greatness isn’t limited to the right; it permeates all of American society.

But what is greatness? Is it defined by a bunch of Olympic medals, or a fat GDP or a clutch of Nobel prizes? In absolute terms, there’s no question that the U.S. far surpasses the rest of the world in all of those categories.

But the U.S. also has, by far, the largest population of the world’s most advanced countries, and a running tally of its achievements doesn’t give us a clear picture of how it is doing compared to other nations. Take Nobel laureates, a measure of a country’s intellectual output: The U.S. leads the world with 375 (its closest competitor is the U.K. at 129). But on a more realistic per capita basis, it ranks 16th. Similarly with Olympic medals: at the 2016 Rio games, the U.S. medal haul was 121. The U.K. came second with 67. In per capita terms, however, it ranked 16th, one spot behind Canada; as for GDP, America’s was a staggering $19.39 trillion in 2017; in per capita terms (PPP-adjusted), it ranked seventh.

So if not brain power, athletic prowess and wealth, what is it that justifies Trump’s State of the Union claim that “there is nothing anywhere in the world that can compete with America”?

Is it military power? The U.S. clearly fields the most formidable military force in the world. According to World Bank data, it spent 3.15 per cent of GDP on its military in 2017. But is that a sign of greatness? That depends on how you define it. In Canada and most other liberal democracies, the trend since the end of the Cold War has been to shift spending away from the military to social programs, to, in other words, build fair and functioning societies linked together in a web of alliances that ensure mutual security. (The predominance of neo-liberal economic policies in places like the U.K. has been the Achilles’ heel of that shift, resulting in massive inequalities.)

Source: The myth of American greatness, Adnan R. Khan, MaClean’s

Bloomberg Contributor Noah Smith wrote a similar piece stating the U.S. is a rich country with symptoms of a developing, He performed the analysis using factors such as health care spending, life expectancy, etc.

Below is an excerpt from that article:

The other day I was late to dinner, but it wasn’t my fault. Traffic was backed up throughout the city of San Francisco, because chunks of concrete had started falling from the upper deck of the Richmond-San Rafael Bridge. Unfortunately, this wasn’t a particularly unusual occurrence — in 2016, the Bay Bridge was shut after concrete chunks began to fall from the walls of a tunnel. Nor are such issues limited to bridges — the $2.2 billion Transbay Transit Center was closed in late 2018 when cracks were discovered in the beams.

These little examples are the kind of incidents that one might expect to see in a developing country where things are built cheaply or badly. But California has ruinously high construction costs; Governor Gavin Newsom recently canceled most of the state’s high-speed rail plan after the price tag ballooned from $45 billion to $75 billion. And these problems aren’t limited to California; across the country, construction costs for both the public and private sectors have swelled as productivity has stagnated or fallen. It costs  much more to build each mile of train in the U.S. than in heavily unionized France. No one seems to be able to put their finger on the reason — instead, the U.S. simply seems riddled with corruption, inefficient bidding, high land-acquisition costs, overstaffing, regulatory barriers, poor maintenance, excessive reliance on consultants and other problems. These seemingly minor inefficiencies add up to a country that has forgotten how to build. Unsurprisingly, much of the country’s infrastructure remains in a state of disrepair.

All of this raises a disturbing question: Is it possible for a rich, industrialized country to fall back into the middle ranks? The United Nations classifies countries as developed, developing and a middle category called “in transition.” But it’s generally assumed that the economies in transition are on their way up, not down.

Source:U.S. Is a Rich Country With Symptoms of a Developing Nation, Noah Smith, Bloomberg

Both the above articles are worth a read.

Recessions and Bear Markets Since 1946

Bear markets are not always preceded by recessions and vice versa. The relationship between these two are tenuous at best. I came across an interesting piece by Liz Ann Sonders at Schwab on this topic.

From the article:

Stock market relative to recessions

What should we expect from the stock market during a recession? Should we assume 20% or more market losses given the tendency for stocks to enter into a bear market in anticipation of recessions?

The table below shows every S&P 500 bear market (using the traditional -20% definition) in the post-Great Depression era, but also what I’ll call “near bear markets” (down at least 19% but less than 20%).

As you can see in the table below, there is typically an overlap between the two, with bear markets generally starting in advance of recessions (red entries are bear/near bear markets which overlapped with recessions). That said, there are bear/near bear markets that have not accompanied recessions (like 1987); and there are recessions that have only had near bear markets (like 1991). There are a surprisingly large number of near bear markets.

Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg, National Bureau of Economic Research. Bear market defined as 20% or greater drop in S&P 500.  Near bear market defined declines of more than 19% but less than 20%. *3/24/2000–10/9/2002 is generally considered one long bear market (-49.1%), but there were two 20% rallies within that span. **10/9/2007 – 3/9/2009 is generally considered one long bear market (-56.8%), but there was one 20% rally within that span.

Bear markets that overlapped with recessions were generally more severe than those occurring outside recessions. The average bear/near bear market without a recession was -24.6%, while the average bear/near bear market with a recession was -32.2%.

Source: The Beginning is the End is the Beginning: A Look at Recessions, Liz Ann Sonders, Schwab

The Three Global Online Retail Titans: An Overview

Amazon.com, Inc(AMZN), Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) and Mercadolibre Inc(MELI) are the top three online retailers in the world. Amazon dominates the US market though its increasingly under threat from competitors. From a seller of books the retailer has grown to be an advertising powerhouse and a leader in cloud services through its AWS division. Alibaba is the largest player in China and Argentina-based Mercadolibre is a growing leader in the Latin American market.

The following table gives a high-level overview of these three online titans:

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Source: Three Technology Titans Reshaping Retail, Franklin Templeton

Disclosure: No Positions

Knowledge is Power: Global Dividends, Smart Investor, Earnings Growth Edition

Argentina is the top performer so far this year with the Merval Index up by 21%. Mexico has increased by a modest 5% despite hopes of great gains after AMLO came to power. Among the developed European markets, Germany is up by 8.5% while UK’s FTSE 100 has gained only 6.7% as the market is still caught up in the great British Brexit chaos. Unlike last year, China is leading major emerging markets with a gain of 12.4% and India is basically flat year-to-date.

Below are some interesting links for weekend reading:

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Spiky Plant @ Loro Parque, Tenerife, The Canary Islands