Comparison of Poverty Levels: Brazil vs. U.S.

The percentage of population living in poverty continues to decline in Brazil but is increasing in the U.S. in recent years.

The following chart shows the decline in poverty and income distribution in Brazil since 1990:

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Source: Economic Survey of Brazil, OECD

The OECD report notes that the poverty rate has declined by half since 1993 and urges urges that the remarkable progress must be continued to further reduce high levels of inequality and poverty. According to OECD data, the number of people living below the poverty line declined from 42.98 million in 1993 to just 21.42 million in 2009.

Brazil is a developing country with a population of 203 million while the U.S. is an advanced economy with a population of 313 million.

The following chart shows the number of Americans living in poverty and the poverty rate from 1959 to 2010:

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Source: U.S. Census Bureau

The sharp differences in poverty levels between Brazil and U.S. are shocking as displayed in the above graphs.

Since 2000, the number of people living in poverty in the U.S. has increased steadily to reach 46.2 million or about 15% of the total population. On the other hand, the number of Brazilians living in poverty stands at about 11% of the total population now.

On a related note, Forbes magazine’s “The World’s Billionaires” for 2011 lists 413 billionaires in the U.S. compared with 30 in Brazil. Forbes also laments that the U.S. is producing billionaires at a slower rate than in the past.

As more and more wealth is transferred into the hands of the top 1% of the U.S. population due to misguided government policies, the unfortunate among the rest of the 99% is further pushed into abject poverty. The social implications of this situation is huge as evidenced by the following report that appeared on the Real Time Economics blog of The Wall Street Journal on November 1, 2011:

Nearly 15% of the U.S. population relied on food stamps in August, as the number of recipients hit 45.8 million.

Food stamp rolls have risen 8.1% in the past year, the Department of Agriculture reported, though the pace of growth has slowed from the depths of the recession.

The number of recipients in the food stamp program, formally known as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), may continue to rise in coming months as families continue to struggle with high unemployment and September’s data will likely include disaster assistance tied to the destruction and flooding caused by Hurricane Irene.

Almost the entire 46 million Americans currently living in poverty are dependent on the state for putting food on the table. This is astonishing since food prices are relatively much cheaper in the U.S. than other countries including most emerging countries.

Update #1:

From a news report released today:

The number of poor Americans hit a record 49 million in 2010, or 16%, according to new data released on Monday that showed poverty rates for the elderly, Asians and Hispanics higher than previously known.

The figures were calculated by the Census Bureau under a broad new measure intended to supplement the official standard with a fuller picture of poverty in the United States. Results contrast with official poverty data, released in September, that put the number of poor Americans at 46.2 million.

The biggest rise occurred among people aged 65 and older who are being driven into poverty by out-of-pocket medical expenses, including premiums and co-pays from the federal government’s Medicare program for the elderly.

Update #2:

From a Center on Budget and Policy Priorities report titled “Poverty and Financial Distress Would Have Been Substantially Worse in 2010 Without Government Action, New Census Data Show” :

Six temporary federal initiatives enacted in 2009 and 2010 to bolster the economy by lifting consumers’ incomes and purchases kept nearly 7 million Americans out of poverty in 2010, under an alternative measure of poverty that takes into account the impact of government benefit programs and taxes.  These initiatives — three new or expanded tax credits, two enhancements of unemployment insurance, and an expansion of benefits through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, formerly called food stamps) — were part of the 2009 Recovery Act.  Congress subsequently extended or expanded some of them.

Hence the total number of persons in poverty would have been even higher last year if not for the six government initiatives.

Update #3: Brazil divided over an emerging middle class

From the BBC report:

Brazil’s economic success story has not only lifted millions of Brazilians out of poverty. It has also raised the expectations of a new lower-middle class – known here as the “C class”.

Apple and Nestle Among China’s Top Companies List

The Global Finance magazine has published “The Stars of China” list in the latest issue. These firms are the top ranked companies in their respective industries.

The Stars of China for 2011:

[TABLE=1047]

Source: Global Finance

It is interesting to note that Apple(AAPL) and Nestle(NSRGY) are the two foreign firms in this ranking. Switzerland based Nestle has a strong presence in emerging markets and operates 23 factories in China. Apple is succeeding in China due to its strong brand name and high quality products.

Disclosure: No Positions

French and German Equity Markets Are Cheap Based On Valuation

The CAC-40 and DAX indices are down 17.9% and 13.7% as of Nov 4, 2011. Both these indices were off much higher in early October but have since recovered some of the losses as some clarity has began to emerge on the solution to the Euro crisis.

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Source: Yahoo Finance

French and German markets are cheap based on the Shiller P/E ratio according to a report published last month by Niels C. Jensen of the UK-based Absolute Return Partners. These two markets  are trading at the same level during the credit crisis of 2008 and levels back in 1982.

Note: Also known as the cyclically adjusted P/E, the Shiller P/E smooths the impact from economic cycles by calculating the P/E as a 10 year average and adjusting for inflation.

Via: PSG Angle: Why investing in stocks, makes sense!, PSG Asset Management

According to Neels van Schaik of PSG Asset Management, many of the European stock prices are already reflecting the probability of a recession in Europe or the U.S. Hence at current price levels European companies may offer sound returns to investors willing to hold five years or more.

Ten randomly selected non-financial French and German stocks are listed below with their current prices and dividend yields for further review:

a) French ADRs:

1.Company: AXA SA (AXAHY)
Current Price: $14.47
Current Dividend Yield: $7.10%
Sector: Life Insurance

2.Company: Danone (DANOY)
Current Price: $13.45
Current Dividend Yield: 2.74%
Sector: Food Producers

3.Company: Sanofi (SNY)
Current Price: $34.12
Current Dividend Yield: 5.16%
Sector: Pharmaceuticals

4.Company: Valeo (VLEEY)
Current Price: $23.90
Current Dividend Yield: 3.44%
Sector: Automobile Parts

5.Company: France Telecom (FTE)
Current Price: $17.47
Current Dividend Yield: 11.21%
Sector: Telecom

6.Company: LaFarge (LFRGY)
Current Price: $10.09
Current Dividend Yield: N/A
Sector: Cement

7.Company: Air Liquide (AIQUY)
Current Price: $24.86
Current Dividend Yield: 2.65%
Sector: Chemicals

8.Company: Electricite de France  (ECIFY)
Current Price: $5.70
Current Dividend Yield: 5.54%
Sector: Electric Utility

9.Company: TOTAL (TOT)
Current Price: $51.28
Current Dividend Yield: 6.32%
Sector: Integrated Oil & Gas

10.Company:CGG Veritas (CGV)
Current Price: $21.92
Current Dividend Yield: N/A
Sector: Oil Equipment Services and Distributors

b) German ADRs:

1.Company: BASF (BASFY)
Current Price: $70.65
Current Dividend Yield: 4.46%
Sector: Chemicals

2.Company: Continental AG (CTTAY)
Current Price: $74.15
Current Dividend Yield: N/A
Sector: Tire Manufacturing

3.Company:Fresenius Medical Care (FMS)
Current Price: $70.61
Current Dividend Yield: 1.32%
Sector: HealthCare Equipment & Services

4.Company: Henkel AG (HENKY)
Current Price: $49.63
Current Dividend Yield: 2.04%
Sector: Household Goods

5.Company: Siemens (SI)
Current Price: $102.20
Current Dividend Yield: 3.62%
Sector: General Industrials

6.Company: RWE AG (RWEOY)
Current Price: $39.90
Current Dividend Yield: 11.90%
Sector: Multi-Utility

7.Company: Deutsche Telekom (DTEGY)
Current Price: $12.43
Current Dividend Yield: N/A
Sector: Telecom

8.Company: Bayer AG (BAYRY)
Current Price: $65.25
Current Dividend Yield: 3.57%
Sector: Chemicals

9.Company: Adidas  (ADDYY)
Current Price: $35.05
Current Dividend Yield: 1.62%
Sector: Personal Goods

10.Company: Hannover Rueckversicherung (HVRRY)
Current Price: $25.01
Current Dividend Yield: 6.57%
Sector: Reinsurance

Note: Prices and Dividend Yields noted are as of market close Nov 4, 2011.

Some observations:

I have included AXA and Hannover Re in the above list though are considered to be part of the financial industry. They are in fact insurance companies and unlike banks they are highly regulated and do not have high exposures to sovereign debt or derivatives. In addition, in countries like France people save a significant portion of retirement savings with insurance companies. Hence from an investment perspective it is wrong to paint insurance firms with the same brush as banks.

Germany-based BASF (BASFY) is the world’s largest chemical manufacturer and holds the leadership position for many years now. Food producer Danone (DANOY) has a strong brand name in developed countries including the U.S. and continues to expand in emerging markets with innovative products.

Disclosure: Long HENKY, RWEOY, LFRGY, VLEEY, AXAHY

One More Proof That Investors Should Not Time The Market

I wrote a post back in September about why ordinary investors should not time the market. This post adds another angle to the same topic.

The first decade of the 21st century has been called as “The Lost Decade” for U.S. stocks as they were flat to down. In addition, the S&P 500 lost 23% for the period from Dec 31, 1999 thru Dec 14, 2009.

Over the period from the start of 2000 to the end of 2009, a person who had invested a lump sum of  $50,000 would have had an annualised return over the period of -1.25%, or a cumulative return of -11.85% as shown in the chart below:

Click to enlarge

However over the same period, a person who invested $50,000 in quarterly installments of $1,250 would have had an annualised return over the period of 1.16%, with a total cumulative return of 12.26%.

Source: GenXFinance.com

The difference in returns between the two strategies is incredible. The charts also confirm that timing the market does not work. Hence investors saving for retirement (or) other long-term goals should invest periodically even if it is in small amounts. Investors with a large amount to invest should also spread out the investments over a period of time instead of dumping all the funds at one time. This strategy is especially important to adhere to during extreme volatile market conditions like the one global equity markets are going through.

Source: PSG Angle: Control the Controllables and Make Peace with the Rest,  PSG Asset Management

Related ETFs:

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (EEM)
Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF (VWO)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
SPDR STOXX Europe 50 ETF (FEU)

Disclosure: No Positions

The 29 Global Too-Big-To-Fail Banks

The Financial Stability Board (FSB) has published the list of global banks that are too-big-to-fail. These banks are required to hold as much as 2.5% more capital than other banks by the end of 2012.

The 29 global systemtacially important banks are:

Bank of America Corp.(BAC)
Bank of China Ltd. (BACHY)
Bank of New York Mellon Corp.(BK)
Groupe Banque Populaire
Barclays Plc (BCS)
BNP Paribas SA (BNPQY)
Citigroup Inc. (C)
Commerzbank AG (CRZBY)
Credit Suisse Group AG (CS)
Deutsche Bank AG (DB)
Dexia SA
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.(GS)
Credit Agricole SA
HSBC Holdings Plc (HBC)
ING Groep NV (ING)
JPMorgan Chase & Co.(JPM)
Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LYG)
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc.(MTU)
Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG)
Morgan Stanley (MS)
Nordea Bank AB (NRBAY)
Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (RBS)
Banco Santander SA (SAN)
Societe Generale SA (SCGLY)
State Street Corp (STT)
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. (SMFG)
UBS AG (UBS)
Unicredit SpA
Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC)

Via: Financial Post

Disclosure: Long many banks in this list