Buy and Hold Strategy is Not Dead !

Welcome to the first post on TopUSStocks.com ! (no longer exists).

The equity markets have been volatile in the past few years since the global financial crisis. As a result of the stomach-churning fall during the crisis and the volatility that followed some investors have simply thrown in the towel and left the equity markets. Others have lost their trust in the buy and hold strategy which worked well in the past when the markets were “normal”.

However in an article last December Kurt Feuerman of AllianceBernstein notes that such buy-and-hold is still alive and works. So investors trying to time the market or trade often may not earn higher returns they were hoping to attain. From Kurt’s post:

Individual and institutional investors have been cutting exposure to equities and other risk assets for years. This de-risking took place as stock valuations were declining. For example, the price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 Index at the beginning of the 2000s was about 30; now, it’s 15. There were many reasons for the equity downsizing, but the bottom line is that investors were shedding stocks as stocks were actually getting cheaper.

These investors haven’t taken part in the post-crisis rebound—as long-term buy-and-hold investors have. Including 2012, US equity markets have risen for four straight years. As seen in the display below, the S&P 500 Index even reached an all-time high in August 2012. It wasn’t the better-known S&P 500 price index that set the mark, but the total-return version that includes dividend payments and their reinvestment. In other words, a benchmark that’s more relevant to long-term investing reached an all-time high. There didn’t seem to be much mention of this in the financial media, which remained preoccupied with macro and political concerns.

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Buy-and-Hold-Works

Source:  Buy and Hold Is Dead…Long Live Buy and Hold,  AllianceBernstein

It is surprising to note that the S&P 500 Total Return reached an all-time high last year – just a few years after one of the worst bear markets since the Great Depression.

In order to take advantage of the buy-and-hold philosophy investors have to be very selective in picking stocks and industries. For example, utilities and consumer staples are better to hold for the long-term than say IT or biotech stocks. Though utility stocks have historically had high yields, they are not the best performers over the long-term among the many S&P sectors. The consumer staples sector -specifically the food sector – is an excellent choice for investors looking for stability, conservative yields and planning to hold stocks for many years.

Six  food stocks to consider adding to a well-diversified portfolio:

1.Company: ConAgra Foods Inc (CAG)
Current Dividend Yield: 3.31%

2.Company: General Mills Inc (GIS)
Current Dividend Yield: 3.16%

3.Company:Kellogg Co (K)
Current Dividend Yield: 3.11%

4.Company:H.J. Heinz Co (HNZ)
Current Dividend Yield: 3.51%

5.Company:Campbell Soup Co (CPB)
Current Dividend Yield: 3.25%

6.Company:The Hershey Co (HSY)
Current Dividend Yield: 2.25%

Note: Dividend yields noted are as of Jan 4, 2013

Disclosure: Long GIS

The World’s Busiest Airports by Passengers 2011

Here is an interesting chart showing the World’s Busiest Passenger Airports in 2011:

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Worlds-Businest-Passenger-Airport-2011

Source: Current Market Outlook 2012-3031, Boeing

Atlanta is the world’s top airport with passenger volumes exceeding 90 million. It is surprising to see Beijing’s airport at number two with about 90 million. This shows the increasing air travel in China. In addition to growing air traffic China is also expanding its high speed rail network,  express roadways and regular rail network. Truly China is kicking on all cylinders with respect to infrastructure development in transportation among emerging countries. In some categories such as the high-speed rail network China is even beating the developed world.  The rest of the airports in the list have traditionally served as top airports in handling passenger traffic.

Chart: Natural Catastrophes Worldwide From 1980 to 2011

Germany-based reinsurance company Munich Re (MURGY) maintains the world’s largest database on global catastrophes. The company operates in most countries and earns over half of its disaster insurance premiums from the U.S. In October last Munich Re published a research study on climate changes.

From the report in Der Spiegel:

Whether it’s hurricanes, thunderstorms or tornadoes, extreme weather is big business for insurers. Now German re-insurer Munich Re claims to have found proof that man-made climate change is causing more weather catastrophes in North America. Scientists are outraged.

In late October of last year, superstorm Hurricane Sandy hit the US causing an estimated $25.0 billion in damages and more than 100 deaths. Sandy is the latest natural catastrophe to cause billions in damages.

Globally meteorological and hydrological catastrophic events are increasing since the 1980s. Here is chart showing the count of worldwide natural catastrophes worldwide from 1980 to 2011 :

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Natural-Cats-by-Year

Source: Munich Re 

Disclosure: No Positions

Comparing the Performance of Sensex and Bovespa Indices

Last year India’s  was one of the best performing emerging markets with the Sensex rising about 26%. Brazil had a lackluster performance with the Bovespa gaining under 8% for the year. Though both are part of the BRIC countries, the economies of Brazil and India differ vastly. For example, India is a major importer of commodities while Brazil is a major exporter. Though domestic consumption is increasing in both countries, the unemployment rate is lower and consumer credit growth is growing at a faster pace in Brazil than in India. It would be interesting to see how these two economies perform this year.

The chart below shows the performance of Bovespa and Sensex since 2000:

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Bovesap-Sensex

In the past 5 years Brazil’s Bovespa has outperformed the Sensex:

Bovesap-Sensex-5-Years

Source: Yahoo Finance

Mexico outperformed both Brazil and Chile last year since the Mexican economy is more  connected to the US economy than the economies of Brazil and Chile. Mexico’s IPC index reached a new record high this year.

Related ETFs:

WisdomTree India Earnings (EPI)
PowerShares India (PIN)
iShares S&P India Nifty 50 (INDY)
EGShares Brazil Infrastructure ETF (BRXX)
iShares MSCI Brazil Index (EWZ)

Disclosure: No Positions