On The Financial Alchemy of U.S. Companies

The definition of alchemy according to Mirriam-Webster:

a science that was used in the Middle Ages with the goal of changing ordinary metals into gold.

a power or process that changes or transforms something in a mysterious or impressive way.

U.S. companies are desperately trying to show earnings growth measured in terms of earnings per share even though the underlying earnings trend is flat to negative. One way they are able to do this is via share buybacks per Niels C. Jensen of Absolute Return Partners LLP of UK. In the Dec 2013 edition of The Absolute Return Letter he used the following chart on this subject originally put out by PIMCO:

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SP 500 Net Income vs EPS Growth Rate by Year

 

Source:  The Absolute Return Letter, Dec 2013,  Absolute Return Partners LLP

Share buybacks are rarely used by firms in countries outside of the U.S. However share buybacks very common among US companies of all sizes. Companies routinely implement buyback programs to boost EPS.

When a company starts a buyback program it simply means that the management is incompetent and has no clue what to do with the earnings. In the past US firms used to smart and invest their earnings in R&D, expansion of operations, hire more workers, etc. However nowadays US firms take the easy way out by simply buying buying back their own stock. Obviously one does not need to be a rocket scientist to boost EPS this way but thats what lavish-paid management executives do anyway. Most US investors also go along with the ride since they believe higher share prices are better than dividends due to tax impacts and reinvestment risk. It can be argued that the major shareholders such as hedge funds, mutual funds, wealthy investors, pension funds, institutions, etc. who can actually force a company’s management to use profits in a productive fashion are actually silent supporters of higher stock prices than dividends or growing the company. Hence US firms continue to play the buyback game with no questions asked.

From an article in The Wall Street Journal in later December, 2013:

U.S. companies in the S&P 500-stock index bought back $128.2 billion of their own shares in the third quarter, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. That is the highest level since the fourth quarter of 2007.

Combined, stock buybacks and dividends totaled $207 billion in the third quarter, also the highest in nearly six years, according to the data provider.

Among the biggest buyers of their own shares in the third quarter were Apple Inc.,AAPL -2.45% Pfizer Inc. PFE -0.26% and Exxon Mobil Corp. XOM +0.22% All purchased more than $3 billion of stock in the three months ended Sept. 30. Apple bought back $4.9 billion. Buybacks are good for shareholders and companies alike: They return cash to investors while boosting companies’ earnings per share by reducing their share count.

The big payouts are luring investors to the stock market—bolstering confidence in stocks’ record-setting rally—at a time when other assets such as bonds are offering paltry or negative returns.

But the moves also are cause for concern for some investors, especially because they come when markets are at records and share valuations are above their historical average.

Some investors are starting to question the popularity of buybacks, saying they would get a better return if companies spend on research and development and on expanding operations.

Source: Companies Binge on Share Buybacks, The Wall Street Journal, Dec 25, 2013

Here is Joshua Brown, financial advisor at Ritholtz Wealth Management and blogger at of The Reformed Broker putting the astonishing buyback amounts in perspective:

In the 12 months ending September 30th, buybacks totaled a whopping $445.3 billion, a year-over-year increase of 15% says S&P Dow Jones Indices. Let me put that $445.3 billion annual run-rate in perspective for you:

* For starters, that amount is equivalent to the annual budget of the entire US Department of Defense ($440 billion). It’s also two-and-a-half times all Federal income taxes paid by corporations ($181 billion last year).

* It’s more than four times greater than the total amount of net inflows to stock mutual funds and ETFs this year ($106 billion).

* It eclipses the total charitable contributions that Americans give each year ($300 billion) by more than 30%.

* You could hold the Beijing Olympics ($41 billion) ten more times for this amount of money or feed every single child in the world for a year ($54 billion) eight times over. Or you could buy up more than half of all the buildings and real estate in Manhattan ($802 billion).

* You could clean up after Hurricanes Sandy, Ivan, Ike, Andrew, Katrina and Ivan. Twice. Or buy out McDonalds, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, KFC, Wendy’s, Burger King and Chipotle ($150 billion) thrice.

* Adjusted for inflation, this $445 billion is just shy of the total amount the US government spent on the New Deal economic recovery package ($500 billion in today’s dollars) that brought us back from the Great Depression and about four times the size of the Marshall Plan that rebuilt Europe after WWII ($115 billion in today’s dollars).

* You could take this $445 billion and buy every single team in the NFL, NHL, NBA and Major League Baseball – all 122 franchises (estimated by Forbes to be worth a combined $77 billion) – five times and still have enough left over to buy out ESPN ($60 billion) to air all their games.

US corporations took care of their shareholders over this past year like almost never before – but it wasn’t out of altruism. In a low-growth environment the easiest way to boost share prices, raise earnings per share and secure higher compensation is by shrinking the publicly available float of shares. It’s less risky career-wise for a CEO or a board of directors than expansion or acquisitions – and if you can augment a cash hoard with debt financing at almost zero cost, why not?

Source: Merry F%@#ing Buyback Christmas, The Reformed Broker

Related ETF:

PowerShares BuyBack Achievers Portfolio (PKW)

Disclosure: No Positions

British Companies To Pay Higher Dividends This Year

UK-based Capita Asset Services publishes their Dividend Monitor report forecasting the dividend payments of British firms. According to this year’s report, British firms are projected to payout more than £100.0 billion in dividends over the nesxt 12 months.

The top dividend-paying British stocks are shown in the table below:

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UK Top Dividend Paying Stocks List

Source: Thanks for the dividends (& the stocks shelling out), CityWire UK

Some of the interesting points to note include:

  1. UK firms will pay out £30.0 billion more in dividends this year than 2013.
  2. More than half of the £30.0 billion will be paid out by Vodafone which is planning to pay £16.6 billion in special dividends to shareholders as a result of selling its stake in Verizon Wireless(U.S.).
  3. The FTSE 100 is estimated to have a dividend yield of 4.40% over the next 12 months. Over the past 10 years capital appreciation for the index amounted to 50.80%. But when reinvested dividends are included this figure more than doubles to a return of 116.60% according to research by Hargreaves Lansdown.
  4. The top dividend payers last year were: AstraZeneca(AZN), BP(BP), HSBC Holdings(HBC), GlaxoSmithKline(GSK) and  Royal Dutch Shell(RDS-A). All of them are also among the top 10 holdings in the FTSE 100.

Source: 2014 will be a bumper year for UK equity income investors, FE Trustnet

Disclosure; No Positions

Performance Comparison: Ecopetrol vs Petrobras

Oil majors Ecopetrol (EC) of Colombia and Petrobras(PBR) of Brazil are both controlled by the state. In the past 5 years the ADR performance of these companies have diverged significantly as shown in the chart below:

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EC vs PBR-5 year return

Source: Google Finance

Petrobras had a great run in the past. However the stock has performed poorly especially during the presidency of during the Dilma Vana Rousseff since 2011. The populist president has a been a disaster for investors due to her policies of heavy state intervention in the economy.

Ecopetrol is up 82% in the past five years in price returns while Petrobras is down over 50%. EC currently has a 7.75% dividend yield and a market cap of $73.0 billion while PBR’s dividend yield is 1.52% and market cap is $81.0 billion.

Ecopetrol(EC) ADR fell by 42% in 2013 and Petrobras(PBR) was down 31%. Petrobras has been on a downtrend for many years now.From a peak of $72.0 reached in June 2008 following a 2 for 1 split in May of that year, the stock currently trades at under $13.0. Investors who bought in 2008 are sitting on a big paper loss. From its IPO in 2008, Ecopetrol shares peaked at around $68.0 in May 2012. On Friday it closed at $35.56. The company has paid a dividend every year since its listing on the NYSE.

According to an article in FT beyondbrics blog, Ecopetrol has a extraordinary shareholder meeting set for January 23. There are rumors that Javier Gutiérrez, the chief executive of the company may be on the way out. Despite new discoveries Ecopetrol seems to be suffering from tight reserves according to bank Bancolombia quoted in the article.

Disclosure: Long PBR