Periodic Table of Investment Returns: USA vs. Other Developed Countries From 2004 Thru 2013

The S&P 500 is up 6.3% year-to-date (YTD). In the past five years the index has more than doubled. Compared to the performance of the S&P 500, many of the developed market indices are in the negative territory so far this year.The returns of the some major markets YTD are listed below:

UK’s FTSE 100: -5.3%
France’s CAC 40: -3.9%
Germany’s DAX : -5.9%
Spain’s IBEX 35: 4.3%
Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite: 6.8%
Japan’s Nikkei: -6.1%

Considering the solid performance of the US markets in the past 5 years and relatively decent performance this year some investors may be tempted to stay away from investing in foreign developed markets. However past performance shows that the U.S. is always not the top performer among developed markets. In fact, the U.S. has only outperformed the other developed markets only twice (in 2011 and 2013) in the past 10 years as shown in the chart below:

Click to enlarge

US vs Developed Market Returns Chart-Small

Source: Henderson Global Investors

Note:  The returns shown above are based on the country’s respective  MSCI country index.

A few observations from the above chart:

  • German stocks yielded a positive return in 8 out of the past 10 years.
  • Norway is another top performer with 8 years of positive returns.
  • In most of the years shown, Japan’s returns have been a relatively average.
  • Similar to Germany, UK was also down in just 2 of the 10 years.

Related ETFs:

  1. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
  2. Global-X Norway ETF (NORW)
  3. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWU)
  4. iShares MSCI Canada Index Fund (EWC)
  5. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Disclosure: No Positions

Knowledge is Power: Brazil Election, Year-End Tax Moves, Yield Scarcity Edition

Rousseff or Neves? Brazilians Await Bad News Whoever Wins (Bloomberg)

The eurozone’s German problem (CER)

42 stocks that’ll thrive even if the economy gets worse (Financial Post)

Invesco Perpetual’s Mustoe: Why I’m betting big on Europe (FE Trustnet)

12 savvy year-end tax moves (Fidelity)

2020 Vision: Yield Scarcity and the Case for Dividends (Franklin Templeton Investments)

STOCKS FOR THE LONG RUN? (Evanson Asset Management)

4 Mistakes to Avoid in International Investing (Charles Schwab)

Can businessmen make good politicians? (The Hindu BusinessLine)

Why Don’t Germans Invest in Stocks? (Bloomberg BusinessWeek , 2010)

The Biggest Myths in Economics (Pragmatic Capitalism)

The Path to Becoming an Emerging Market (AllianceBernstein Blog)

 Click to enlarge

Near Central Park -Manhattan New York

Near Central Park, Manhattan, New York City

Comparing the Contribution of Dividends and Share Price Gains to Total Returns Across Regions

Dividends are an important factor that must be considered when selecting equities. This is because dividends provide a cushion to a well-diversified portfolio during adverse market conditions and also provide an income stream. More importantly they help boost the total returns of an investment especially over the long-term. According to a research study by Allianz Global Investors dividends accounted for 40% of the total return on equity investment in the past 40 years. Many other studies have also shown that dividends form a substantial portion of the total returns.

When evaluating total returns it is wise to review the contribution of dividends and share price gains.The following chart shows the Contribution of Dividends and Share Price Gains to Total Returns from 1970 and 2014(annualized) across select global regions:

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Global Comparison of Divi and Stock Price Returns

 

Source: Dividend strategies in times of financial repression, Allianz Global Investors

Dividends accounted for 42% of the equity returns for the MSCI Europe during the period shown. Although dividend yields were low in absolute terms, they also contributed more one-third of the total performance for other regions as well including North America (MSCI North America) or Pacific (MSCI Pacific).

Related ETFs:

  • iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend ETF (DVY)
  • SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY)
  • Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG)
  • Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM)
  • SPDR DJ Euro STOXX 50 ETF (FEZ)
  • iShares Asia/Pacific Dividend ETF (DVYA)

Disclosure: No Positions

On the Performance of Brazilian Utility Stocks

The Brazil presidential election run-off is on Oct 26th (Sunday).The current President Dilma Rousseff is challenged by Aécio Neves. Investors are eagerly waiting for the outcome of this election as there will be major policy changes that impact the investment climate in the country.They are betting for a Aécio Neves win as Dilma has been a disaster during her tenure from an investors’ point of view. Brazil used to be a hot destination for investors when President Lulu was in office and the equity markets soared.

In the past few years Brazilian stocks in general have been poor performers compared to other emerging markets. Among the Brazilian ADRs trading on the US markets, utilities have not fared well either.

The table below shows the 5-year and year-to-date price return of Brazilian utility stocks trading on the NYSE:

S.No.CompanyTickerStock price as of Oct 22, 2014 CloseYear-to-date change(%) as of Oct 22, 20145-Year Price Return (%)
1Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais(CEMIG)CIG$6.092.34%-28.42%
2Comp. Paranaense de Energia(COPEL)ELP$13.000.23%-25.17%
3Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras-EletrobrasEBR$2.56-5.02%-82.85%
4CPFL EnergiaCPL$14.79-7.81%-15.30%

Source: BNY Mellon, Yahoo Finance

All four stocks noted above yielded negative returns in the past five years. Eletrobras was the worst performer with an incredible loss of about 83%.

The losses of these utility stocks underscores the risk involved in investing in utilities of emerging markets even for the long-term.

Disclosure: No Positions