European Bank Stocks: Five to Consider and Five to Avoid

The European banking sector offers many attractive opportunities now as the economic recovery gains momentum. Investors looking to buy and hold these stocks for a minimum of three to five years may be able to reap solid returns. Unlike in the past,  it is highly unlikely that another European sovereign debt or other type of crisis will occur due to the change of government in Greece.

After years of dithering some banks in Europe have raised capital and are now in a better position than before. They have also written off most of their bad debts and are now focused on growing profitably again.In addition, the financial sector is the pillar of any economy and hence banks are bound to benefit from increased economic activity in Europe. European bank stocks also lagged their American peers last year and offer value at current levels.

The Euro STOXX Banks Index which contains 32 banks from the Eurozone is down 2.55% year-to-date in Euro price terms. In the past five years the index is down about 35%.

The following are five European bank stocks that investors must avoid:

1.Company: Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC (RBS)
Current Dividend Yield: No dividends paid
Country: UK

The British government owns 63% of ordinary shares and RBS is still suffering from losses sustained during the global financial crisis.

2.Company: Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG)
Current Dividend Yield:  No dividends paid
Country: UK

Similar to RBS, the state is a major owner of Lloyds and the bank last paid a dividend in 2009.

3.Company: National Bank of Greece (NBG)
Current Dividend Yield:  No dividends paid
Country:Greece

Despite two reverse stock splits in a short period of time, National Bank of Greece is not worth investing now.

4.Company: Danske Bank (DNSKY)
Current Dividend Yield:  No dividends paid
Country: Denmark

Though Danske restarted dividend payments last year, it still has a long way to go before becoming “normal” bank.

5. Company:Societe Generale (SCGLY)
Current Dividend Yield:
Country: France

Socgen raised its dividend last year but the stock is still ignored by big investors. The stock price struggles to move past the $10 range. BNP Paribas may be a better alternative among French banks.

Five European bank stocks to consider:

1.Company: ING Groep NV (ING)
Current Dividend Yield:  No dividends paid
Country: The Netherlands

ING paid off its final EUR 1.025 billion loan to the Dutch government in November, 2014 and is on track to restart its dividend payments this year. The bank hasn’t paid a dividend since the global financial crisis. ING sold off many of its units worldwide in recent years including the ING Direct units in Canada and U.S. to raise cash. At $12.72 a share one cannot go wrong to buy it for the long haul.

2.Company: Nordea Bank AB (NRBAY)
Current Dividend Yield: 4.75%
Country: Sweden

On Jan 28th, Nordea raised dividends by 44% and will now 0.62 euro per share from 0.43 euro earlier. The ADR swiftly rose in two days from $11.83 to close at $12.96 today.

3.Company:Svenska Handelsbanken AB (SVNLY)
Current Dividend Yield: 5.41%
Country: Sweden

One of the strongest and most conservative banks in the world. The bank has good growth prospects according to this article.

4.Company: UBS AG (UBS)
Current Dividend Yield: 1.70%
Country: Switzerland

5.Company: HSBC Holdings PLC  (HSBC)
Current Dividend Yield: 5.27%
Country: UK

Of all the major British banks, “The World’s Local Bank” looks attractive at current levels with an excellent dividend yield.

Note: Dividend yields noted above are as of Jan 29, 2015. Data is known to be accurate from sources used.Please use your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.

Disclosure: Long ING, DNSKY, LYG

Why Invest in European Aerospace & Defense Stocks

The Aerospace & Defense industry is one of the important and growing industries in both the U.S. and European. Despite budget cutbacks in the U.S. stocks in the industry have done extremely well in the past few years.Similarly European defense companies have also performed well in recent years. Though countries in Europe spend far less than the U.S. on defense, the industry gets top priority when it comes to budget allocations for obvious reasons. In addition, the recent terrorist attack in France are sure to lead governments to spend more funds on military and surveillance operations.This will benefit the companies operating in the industry.

Europe-based defense firms are also big players in the U.S. market.For example, UK’s BAE Systems(BAESY) competes with Boeing, Lockheed Martin and others for Pentagon contracts.

The STOXX® Europe TMI Aerospace & Defense Index is composed of the major 15 firms in the industry. The index is has more than doubled in the past five years in Euro price terms as the chart shows below.So far this year the index is up by nearly 12%.

Click to enlarge

European Aerospace and Defense Index

Source: STOXX

Of the 15 components in the index, 13 trade on the US OTC markets. They are listed below with their current dividend yields:

1.Company: Airbus (EADSY)
Current Dividend Yield: 1.82%
Country: The Netherlands

2.Company: BAE Systems (BAESY)
Current Dividend Yield: 4.30%
Country:UK

3.Company: Chemring Group (CMGMY)
Current Dividend Yield: 2.90%
Country: UK

4.Company: Cobham (CBHMY)
Current Dividend Yield: 4.03%
Country: UK

5.Company: Finmeccanica (FINMY)
Current Dividend Yield: Dividends not paid
Country:Italy

6.Company: Meggitt (MEGGY)
Current Dividend Yield: 2.62%
Country: UK

7.Company: MTU Aero Engines (MTUAY)
Current Dividend Yield: 1.99%
Country: Germany

8.Company: Qinetiq Group (QNTQY)
Current Dividend Yield: 2.63%
Country: UK

9.Company: Rolls-Royce (RYCEY)
Current Dividend Yield: 2.71%
Country: UK

10.Company: Safran (SAFRY)
Current Dividend Yield: 2.32%
Country: France

11.Company: Thales (THLEY)
Current Dividend Yield: 2.90%
Country: France

12.Company: Ultra Electronics (UEHPY)
Current Dividend Yield: 2.60%
Country: UK

13.Company: Zodiac Aerospace (ZODFY)
Current Dividend Yield: 1.07%
Country:France

SAAB and Senior do not trade on the US markets.

Note: Dividend yields noted above are as of Jan 28, 2015. Data is known to be accurate from sources used.Please use your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.

Disclosure: Long SAFRY

The Dividend Payout Ratio of British Stocks Continues To Rise

Capita Asset Services of UK published their latest edition of Dividend Monitor report yesterday. They forecast the headline dividend payouts of up to £86.1bn this year. In 2014, UK companies paid out £97.4bn in dividends up 21.0% from the previous year. Some of the key points from the report include:

  • “Special dividends distort true picture as underlying dividends rise just 1.4%, weakest growth since 2010
  • Sterling’s early 2014 strength knocked £3.5bn off full year total
  • Q4 shows improvement, with 4.0% underlying growth fastest since Q3 2013 as currency effects start to reverse on strengthening US dollar
  • Tesco cancellation of dividend to cost investors £900m, but 2015 outlook is brighter
  • Capita revises forecasts headline payouts up to £86.1bn in 2015
  • Underlying total to climb by 5.7% to £83.6bn”

Source: 2014 Dividends Weaker Than Feared But UK Investors Feel Benefit Of Stronger, Jan 26, 2015, Mondovisione

The chart below shows the yearly growth of dividends since 2007:

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Uk Dividends by Year

Source: Capita Asset Services

According to a note by Citi, UK firms have paid out higher dividends since the financial crisis and they predict  the trend will continue. The chart below shows the UK dividend payout ratio since 1965:

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UK Dividend Payout Ratio

Source: Why equities are at their cheapest in 100 years, Interactive Investor

Currently British firms have a dividend yield of about 3.5% compared to just around 2% for the S&P 500. The FTSE 100 is up 4.4% year-to-date as of Jan 26 relative to the S&P 500 which is basically flat so far this year.

British stocks also offer an added advantage for US investors as there there is no dividend withholding tax except for REITs.

Investors looking to gain exposure to British stocks can consider the following ten companies:

1.Company: Unilever PLC (UL)
Current Dividend Yield: 3.46%
Sector: Food Products

2.Company: HSBC Holdings PLC (HSBC)
Current Dividend Yield: 5.18%
Sector: Banking

3.Company: British American Tobacco PLC (BTI)
Current Dividend Yield:  4.25%
Sector:Tobacco

4.Company: Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDS.A)
Current Dividend Yield: 5.66%
Sector: Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels

5.Company: Vodafone Group PLC (VOD)
Current Dividend Yield: 5.05%
Sector: Wireless Telecom

6.Company: AstraZeneca PLC (AZN)
Current Dividend Yield: 3.97%
Sector: Pharmaceuticals

7.Company: BP PLC (BP)
Current Dividend Yield: 6.17%
Sector: Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels

8.Company:SSE PLC (SSEZY)
Current Dividend Yield: 6.25%
Sector:Multi-Utilities

9.Company: National Grid PLC (NGG)
Current Dividend Yield: 4.92%
Sector:Multi-Utilities

10.Company: Rolls-Royce PLC(RYCEY)
Current Dividend Yield: 2.67%
Sector: Aerospace & Defense

Note: Dividend yields noted above are as of Jan 27, 2015. Data is known to be accurate from sources used.Please use your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.

Disclosure: No Positions

One Solid Reason to Invest in European Dividend Stocks

European firms generally tend to pay a higher portion of their earnings as dividends to shareholders. Unlike US firms they do not target a specific dividend amount or an yield but rather target to payout a specific payout ratio. One reason to invest in European dividend paying stocks is that their average payout ratios are higher than the world, US and Asia stocks as shown in the chart below:

Click to enlarge

Dividend Yield Comparison by Region

Source: The Truth About Europe, Franklin Templeton Investments

Though most European companies dividends only twice a year the amounts paid out can be substantial compared to their peers in USA and Asia.

Five European dividend stocks are listed below for consideration:

1.Company: British American Tobacco PLC (BTI)
Current Dividend Yield: 4.27%
Sector:Tobacco
Country: UK

2.Company: Novartis AG (NVS)
Current Dividend Yield: 2.85%
Sector: Pharmaceuticals
Country: Switzerland

3.Company: Total SA (TOT)
Current Dividend Yield: 6.17%
Sector: Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Country: France

4.Company: Siemens AG (SIEGY)
Current Dividend Yield: 3.71%
Sector:Industrial Conglomerates
Country: Germany

5.Company: Nestle SA (NSRGY)
Current Dividend Yield: 3.11%
Sector: Food Products
Country: Switzerland

Note: Dividend yields noted above are as of Jan 23, 2015. Data is known to be accurate from sources used.Please use your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.

Disclosure: No Positions

What is the Impact of Lower Crude Oil Prices on Canada

The Canadian economy will underperform the US economy over the next few years due to the impacts of lower crude oil prices according to a special report by Thomas Julien of Natixis. Here is the summary of the report:

The fall in oil prices is likely to result in mixed effects for Canada. On the one hand, the fall in petrol prices and the depreciation of the exchange rate against the US dollar in a context of accelerating US growth ought to stimulate household spending and give a boost to industries that are not exposed to the energy sector. The mining sector, on the other hand, which accounts for a significant share of the Canadian economy, will suffer from a persistently low level of crude prices. We therefore expect the continuation of the cyclical recovery in the short term, which is likely to be dampened in the medium term by a weakening in investment in the mining sector and probably a softening of the internal demand due to some deleveraging in the household sector. This configuration reinforces our expectations in terms of monetary tightening, which we expect will start at the end of 2015 (i.e. after the Fed). Based on this view and as oil prices can dip lower in Q1,we believe there is room for the exchange rate to depreciate further in the short term.

The three key points noted by Mr.Julien are:

  1. Canadian consumers will benefit from the lower gas prices.
  2. The mining sector will be hurt if the current oil price trend stays for sometime.
  3. The depreciation of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar will give a boost to non-oil industries that export to the US.

Though the favorable exchange rate would benefit non-oil industries labor costs are high in Canada compared to the U.S. especially in the manufacturing sector as shown in the chart below:

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Canada vs US Unit Labor Costs
Canadian exports to the U.S. have been flat in the past few years:

Click to enlarge

Share of US Imports

Source: Should we be worried about Canada in 2015?, Jan 15, 2015, Natixis

Five Canadian stocks trading on the NYSE are listed below:

1.Company: TELUS Corp (TU)
Current Dividend Yield: 3.93%
Sector: Telecom

2.Company: BCE Inc (BCE)
Current Dividend Yield: 4.55%
Sector: Telecom

3.Company: TransCanada Corp (TRP)
Current Dividend Yield: 3.68%
Sector: Oil & Gas Transportation

4.Company: Enbridge Inc (ENB)
Current Dividend Yield: 3.01%
Sector: Oil & Gas Transportation

5.Company: Magna International Inc(MGA)
Current Dividend Yield: 1.58%
Sector: Auto Components

Note: Dividend yields noted above are as of Jan 23, 2015. Data is known to be accurate from sources used.Please use your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.

Disclosure: No Positions

Related:

Hey Canadian investors: Buy America, Jan 27, 2015, Financial Post