Work Hours vs. Wage of Select Few Countries: Chart

Labor wages vary across countries. For the same work, the wages in a developed country is traditionally much higher than in emerging countries. Hence it is no secret that companies looking to reduce labor costs tend to move their operations to the developing world. I recently came across an interesting article titled “Which country will be the next China?” by Jason Hsu of Rayliant Global Advisors in Australia. A small excerpt from the piece:

Between a rock and a hard place

China is great at what it does, and I don’t envy companies trying to diversify their supply chains. Consider Foxconn, the ‘gold standard’ for operating factories that manufacture high-end electronics. In response to increasing geopolitical pressure, the Taiwanese firm has made several efforts to expand beyond China.

In the United States, Foxconn reached agreements in both Wisconsin and Arizona to invest many billions of dollars in manufacturing plants. And recently, Foxconn signed a partnership with Vedanta Group to manufacture components in India. But as most of my readers know, these deals have all been scaled back or cancelled altogether, including some recent drama in which Foxconn said parts of the US lacked the skills and infrastructure to launch a plant.

I don’t want to speculate too wildly about specific cases like Foxconn’s. But it’s a simple business fact that the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, and other developed countries are simply too expensive and lack sufficient labor to replace Chinese manufacturing. In addition, cultural, employment, and labor norms have hampered Chinese manufacturing attempts in Western countries. (For those who haven’t seen it, American Factory is an excellent case study.)

At the other end of the spectrum, Africa offers inexpensive labor and investment opportunities. However, the infrastructure and labor force cannot currently support high-end and value-add manufacturing.

EM is the only viable option. But as Foxconn’s efforts in India demonstrate, there are challenges even within these markets.

Source: Which country will be the next China?, FirstLinks

China has the highest hours worked per week and the lowest wages as shown in the char below. That is one major reason why China is the factory floor of the world. The second cheapest destination for labor wages is Mexico. Unions cutting deals directly with company managements and without worker representation have kept wages below.

The highest earners with lowest amount of hours worked are in Iceland, Luxembourg and Switzerland. Wages are higher in the US but the number of hours worked is also higher relative to most developed western European countries.

China’s Household Savings Rate and Household Expenditure as a share of GDP

The economy of China has been in the doldrum for the past few years since the pandemic. A recent article in the journal discussed the reasons China is unable to revive its stagnant economy and drive expansion. Unlike the US economy, the Chinese economy is manufacturing and export-based. Since the consumption is further down the economy is stuck in low growth mode. While western experts suggest the country increase its consumption of goods and services and become a consumption-based economy it is unlikely to happen.

For starters, the Chinese are big savers and not spenders. The lack of major social safety nets like social security and others force people to save more for the future. This scenario will not change anytime soon. The following chart shows the household savings rate as a percentage of disposable income:

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Source: Communist Party Priorities Complicate Plans to Revive China’s Economy

For comparison, the household savings rate in the US was 3.50% in July this year. No wonder consumption is a major part of the US economy.

The chart below shows the Chinese household expenditure as a percent of the GDP relative to a select few countries:

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Source: Communist Party Priorities Complicate Plans to Revive China’s Economy

The difference is indeed massive between the Chinese and US rates. The idea that China’s over 1.4 billion population can consume like there is no tomorrow on consumer goods and services is far from reality anytime soon.

On The Outperformance of US and International Stocks From 1971 to 2022

US stocks have performed very well in the past few years over their international peers. However that is not always the case. There have years when foreign stocks outperformed US stocks. The key point to remember is that the outperformance of US stocks over international stocks and vice versa rotate over the years. The following chart shows the relative outperformance from 1971 to 2022:

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1.Source: Bloomberg, MSCI, 12/31/2022. International and US are represented by the MSCI EAFE and MSCI USA indexes, respectively. Peak to trough total cumulative performance calculated for periods of relative outperformance lasting 12 months or longer.

Source: Uncovering International Investment Opportunities, Franklin Templeton

One way to take advantage of this phenomenon is to diversify between these asset classes. Accordingly it is important to own both US and foreign stocks. Simply putting all the assets in just domestic equities is not a wise move. It remains to be seen if foreign stocks can outperform US stocks since 2022.

Relative ETFs:

  • SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
  • Vanguard Developed Markets Index Fund ETF(VEA)
  • Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (VWO)

Disclosure: No positions

Norfolk Southern is the Worst Performing Railroad Year-to-Date

Canadian Pacific(CP) is the top performer in terms of returns so far this year. Of the three American railroads only Union Pacific(UNP) is the positive territory.

Norfolk Southern Corp(NSC)’s stock has been punished by the market due to uncertainties surrounding the train derailment that occurred in February, 2023 in East Palestine, Ohio. Though lawsuits have been filed many analysts agree that legal and other expenses are not expected to adversely impact the company’s earnings. This is because all railroads have insurance to cover such scenarios and in this case Norfolk took several mitigation measures to help the residents impacted. So from an investment point of view analysts have said that the stock is a good long-term buy at current levels. From a high of around $300, the stock has declined to as low as under $200 and closed on Friday at $206.

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Note: Returns shown above are price returns excluding dividends

Source: Google Finance

Investors willing to wait out 5 years or more can consider adding Norfolk in a phased approach at current and lower levels.

Related Stocks:

  1. Canadian National Railway Co (CNI)
  2. Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd(CP)
  3. CSX Corp (CSX)
  4. Union Pacific(UNP)
  5. Norfolk Southern Corp(NSC)

Disclosure: Long CNI, CSX, NSC and UNP