Invest In Foreign Firms To Profit From US Consumer Spending

Some investors not have exposure to foreign companies in their portfolios because of home bias.Others may avoid investing in overseas firms due to the additional risks involved such as political risk, currency exchange risk,  transparency issues, etc. For these investors there is a way to gain from the stability and growth the US consumer spending. This way can be called as “Going abroad to come home”. Basically this strategy involves investing in foreign companies that have substantial operations in the US and derive a big part of their revenues from the US.

Investing in international companies that have a major presence in the US market has many advantages. One advantage is diversification. Instead of simply owning US stocks, an investor holding foreign stocks can benefit from this diversification since the correlation between the US markets and some foreign markets can be very low. Another advantage is the potential ability to generate higher gains by owning foreign stocks. For example, US sports goods maker Nike(NKE) has had a tremendous run the past few years competitor Adidas AG(ADDYY) of Germany has soared in the past year. So an investors owing both Nike and Adidas could earn better returns than owning only Nike.

The below is an excerpt from a white paper by Jeffrey Kleintop of Charles Schwab published last year:

Going abroad to come home Not every company covers all the markets or products in a sector, leaving gaps in a domestic only portfolio that can result in a different magnitude of performance. U.S.-based companies do not even provide exposure to all the markets or products produced for the U.S.

Just as it is true that there are some U.S.-based companies that gain much of their revenue abroad, there are global companies that derive much of their revenue in the U.S. As you can see from the small sample of companies in Figure 9, major categories and popular brands are offered to U.S. consumers by non-U.S.-based companies.

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Foreign Firms with Big US Revenues

As you can see, exposure to global companies is necessary even when seeking exposure to just the U.S. economy.

Source: The case for a global perspective,  Jeffrey Kleintop, Charles Schwab

A few examples of foreign firms with big revenues from the US market include BASF(BASFY) of Germany in the chemical industry, Canadian banking giant Toronto Dominion Bank (TD), consumer staples maker Nestle (NSRGY) of Switzerland, oil major BP(BP) of the UK, etc.

The key takeaway is that by holding overseas companies with strong US revenues investors can get the best of both worlds – the benefits of owing non-US firms and at the same time profiting from the large and growing US consumer spending.

Disclosure: Long TD

The Global Scale of the U.S. Economy

The US economy is the second largest in the world behind China. Based on 2015 data, the US GDP is about $18.0 Trillion in terms of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). At about 321 million, the population of the country is much smaller than China.

The size of the individual states in the US is equal to higher than many countries. The following map shows how each state compares with countries in terms of economy:

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Gobal-scale-of-americas-economy

 

Source: 11 Reasons Why Everyone Wants to Move to Texas, U.S. Investors

Obviously the above is purely an economic comparison. It does not mean the country of Ireland is equal to a state like Louisiana…..

Map of EU Overseas Countries and Territories

The European Union(EU) includes countries and territories that are outside from Europe. For example, countries such as Aruba and Netherlands Antilles in the Caribbean are also part of EU though they are far away from mainland Europe and are closer to the US and North America than Europe. Similarly the beautiful island of Reunion in the middle of nowhere in the Indian Ocean is also in the EU since Reunion is a French overseas department.

The map below shows all the EU Overseas Countries, Territories and Outermost Regions:

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EU Overseas Countries and Territories Map

Source: Wikipedia

Related:

Contribution to Global GDP by Select Countries

The contribution to global GDP by select countries is shown in the chart below. The US accounts for the largest portion of the world’s GDP.

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Contribution of Global GDP for select Countries

Source: Out!, Compass 23, 16, Barclays

The UK accounts for less than 5% of the GDP. Since the British economy is so small at a global level all the drama related to Brexit a few months were over-hyped. When markets crashed due to the Brexit fears it was a great time to pick stocks cheap.Though China is a developing country the sixe of the economy is huge compared to that of Britain.

The key takeaway is that the size of the economy at the global level matters. So when panic ensues due to some reason in countries such as the UK or Brazil it is not a good strategy to dump stocks.

Home Bias In Investors’ Equity Portfolio Allocation Across Countries

Investors across the world tend to biased towards their own country’s equity markets and accordingly overweight their portfolios with domestic stocks. However this home bias strategy can adversely affect an investor’s returns due to lack of diversification and depending too much on the domestic equities.

The chart below shows how the home bias issue varies among countries:

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Home Country Bias in Investors Portfolio Allocation

Source: Your portfolio may be less diversified than you think, By Jeffrey Kleintop, Charles Schwab, Aug 22, 2016

Jeff discusses the case of the equity markets of Canada, USA and Japan in terms of how they are heavily dependent on and follow the performance of specific sectors. Canadian stocks for example tend to follow the performance of the energy sector since Canada is a commodity-based economy and energy is the major driver of the economy.Similarly the US market performance mirrors the performance of the technology sector.

For optimal returns and reducing risks, investors should reduce their home bias and diversify their portfolios across sectors, countries and regions. Putting too many eggs in one basket is never a wise idea. Though it may seem unnecessary to venture abroad, investors need to at least allocate a small portion of their assets to overseas equities. This is especially important for investors in countries where the domestic market is highly reliant one sector.