Which European Countries Are Leaders In Innovation?

Innovation is an important determinant of a country’s economic growth. Hence high investment in R&D must be encouraged both by public and private institutions. The US traditionally leads the world in innovation in many industries. Countries in Europe are the next in coming up with world-class innovations. But among the European countries which countries are lead and which countries lag in innovation?

The European Innovation Scoreboard for 2016 published earlier this year by the European Commission(EC) provider the answer. From an EC report on the scorecard:

The European Innovation Scoreboard – previously Innovation Union Scoreboard – provides a comparative analysis of innovation performance in EU Member States, other European countries, and regional neighbours. It assesses relative strengths and weaknesses of national innovation systems and helps countries identify areas they need to address.

The Regional Innovation Scoreboard is a regional extension of the European Innovation Scoreboard, assessing the innovation performance of European regions on a limited number of indicators.

The chart below shows the ranking of EU countries for innovation:

Click to enlarge

european-innovation-scorecard-2016

Infographic:

infographic-eu-innovation-scorecard-2016

Source: European Innovation Scoreboard, EC

Sweden tops the EU countries in innovation leader followed by Denmark, Finland, Germany and the Netherlands. If neighboring countries are included Switzerland is the most innovative country.

Sweden is home to world-class innovators such as Ikea and Spotify and Skype. The country is home to many of the successful companies in the high-tech industry like King, the creators the highly popular Candy Crush game.

With the exception of Germany, the larger countries of Europe  – Spain, France, the UK – lag the smaller Scandinavian countries.

What is the Relationship Between Emerging Markets and US Interest Rates ?

Emerging equity markets were performing well this year until the US elections. But the outcome of the election adversely impacted these markets. Now with the election of Trump returns in many emerging markets have reversed course and lost much of the gains made year-to-date. Below is the YTD returns of select emerging market indices:

  • China’s Shanghai Composite: -7.8%
  • India’s Bombay Sensex: 0.8%
  • Brzail’s Sao Paulo Bovespa:  42.0%
  • Russia’s RTS Index: 34.5%
  • Mexico’s IPC All-Share: 5.5%
  • South Africa’s Johannesburg All Share: 0.005%

Source: WSJ

Another factor that caused the decline in these markets is the expected increase in US Federal interest rates. Raising rates are bad for developing economies for many reasons. The below excerpt from an article discusses two reasons:

Borrowing costs

When the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered interest rates back in 2008, borrowing U.S. dollars became cheaper and many emerging markets took out loans in this currency to pay for projects such as building new infrastructure, in an attempt to boost their own economies. With lower interest rates came cheaper repayments. When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, this could make the repayment of these loans more costly – so emerging market economies may suffer as a result.


DEmerging Markets


Commodity prices

In addition, many emerging market economies are big commodity producers (i.e. agricultural products like coffee, or natural resources, like oil and gold). Most globally traded commodities are bought and sold in U.S. dollars, so the value of the U.S. dollar matters. Rising rates could make the U.S. dollar stronger, which in turn would make other currencies relatively weaker and may push down commodity prices. This is bad for countries which sell more commodities than they buy because less money flows into the country as a result.

Source: Why do US interest rates impact emerging markets?, iShares UK

From another recent article in Investment News:

Emerging markets have been sinking since the election of Donald Trump, led lower by Latin America and India.

The average diversified emerging markets fund has fallen 4.4% since the Nov. 9 election, according to Morningstar, vs. a 3.5% gain for the Standard and Poor’s 500 stock index.

While a 4.4% gain is relatively modest, it’s noteworthy because emerging markets were on a tear before the election, soaring an average 13.6%. In contrast, developed markets were pikers. The S&P 500 had gained 6.7% before the election, including reinvested dividends, and the MSCI EAFE index, which measures developed overseas markets, had fallen 3.7%.

Trump’s rhetoric against China and Mexico clearly hasn’t helped emerging markets, said Todd Rosenbluth, director of ETF research for CFRA. Funds that specialize in Mexico have been hit hard since the election. iShares MSCI Mexico Capped (EWW), for example, has tumbled 15.6% since election night.

It’s hard not to blame those losses on the election results. “There’s a lot of speculation out there about emerging markets, but when the central theme of the winning candidate is ‘F Mexico,’ that part isn’t that ambiguous,” said Russel Kinnel, editor of Morningstar Fund Investor.

Source: Emerging markets sink after Trump victory, Investment News. Nov 23, 2016

So emerging market investors may be wondering if these markets always crash when interest rates rise. Or to put it differently – what is the relationship between US interest rates and emerging markets. According to an article by Franklin Templeton Investments, when US Fed funds rate rises there may be short-term volatility in emerging markets but in the long-term they do not necessarily lead to lower performance. So long-term investors need not worry too much about the expected rise in the US interest rate.

The chart below shows the correlation between US Fed Funds rate and emerging markets:

Click to enlarge

emerging-markets-vs-fed-interest-rates

Source: Central Banks and Stock Markets: a BOJ Case Study, Franklin Templeton Investments, Nov 22, 2016

Related ETFs:

  • iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM)
  • Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (VWO)

Disclosure: No Positions

Update:

Emerging Stocks on Fed Interest Rate Increases – Chart:

emerging-stocks-on-fed-interest-rate-increases

Source: Focusing on Fundamental Improvement, Franklin Templeton Investments, Dec 13, 2016

Infographic: How Internet Has Transformed Life In China

Similar to other emerging countries, the internet penetration rate is much higher in urban areas than rural areas in China. More people are also using the web and mobile phone apps to perform everyday’s activities such as reading news, managing wealth, etc. In June 2015, the percentage of people using mobile phones to trade stocks was higher by 47% year-over-year. Below is a cool infographic showing the dramatic explosion in the growth of internet in China:

Click to enlarge

infographic-how-the-internet-has-transformed-china

 

Source: China Daily

The List of Major US Coal Producers

Coal production in the U.S. dropped to below 900 million short tons according to EIA. The average number of employees in coal mines declined by 12% year-over-year and reached  65,971.

The major US coal producers in 2015  are listed in the table below:

RankControlling Company NameProduction (thousand short tons)Percent of Total Production
1Peabody Energy Corp175,90819.6
2Arch Coal Inc130,65414.6
3Cloud Peak Energy75,0408.4
4Alpha Natural Resources70,3987.8
5Murray Energy Corp55,5246.2
6Alliance Resource Partners LP44,7165
7Westmoreland Coal Company36,6284.1
8NACCO Industries Inc30,5933.4
9CONSOL Energy Inc24,9292.8
10Energy Future Holdings Corporation23,3442.6
11Coalfield Transport Inc20,1142.2
12RWE Trading Americas Inc17,5082
13Kiewit Peter Sons' Inc16,2411.8
14Bowie Resources Partners LLC12,2201.4
15Virginia Conservation Legacy Fund (Vclf)9,2171
16Armstrong Energy Inc8,0740.9
17Brent K Bilsland7,3230.8
18Coronado Coal LLC6,9550.8
19Global Mining Group LLC6,4200.7
20Western Fuels Assoc Inc6,3690.7
21J Clifford Forrest6,0740.7
22Prairie State Energy Campus5,9540.7
23Navajo Transitional Energy Co5,6850.6
24Warrior Met Coal Intermediate Holdco LLC5,4520.6
25Jeffery A Hoops5,2380.6
26MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co5,1630.6

Source: US EIA

The top five producers are Peabody Energy Corp (BTUUQ), Arch Coal Inc(ANR), Cloud Peak Energy(CLD), Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) and Murray Energy Corp.

Download: The List of Major US Coal Producers (in Excel)

Related:

Disclosure: No Positions

Why Do US Airlines Make Passengers Suffer? Because They Can

Air travel in the US is one of the miserable experiences that most of passengers have to put with. Today fellow blogger and Founder and chief investment officer Barry Ritholtz of Ritholtz Wealth Management posted a link to an interesting article in The New Yorker that discussed why and how airlines make their customers suffer. From the article titled “Why airlines want you to suffer” by Tim Wu and published in December, 2014:

It seems that the money was just too good to resist. In 2013, the major airlines combined made about $31.5 billion in income from fees, as well as other ancillaries, such as redeeming credit-card points. United pulled in more than $5.7 billion in fees and other ancillary income in 2013, while Delta scored more than $2.5 billion. That’s income derived in large part from services, such as baggage carriage, that were once included in ticket prices. Today, as anyone who travels knows well, you can pay fees ranging from forty dollars to three hundred dollars for things like boarding in a “fast lane,” sitting in slightly better economy-class seats, bringing along the family dog, or sending an unaccompanied minor on a plane. Loyal fliers, or people willing to pay a giant annual fee, can avoid some of these charges; others are unavoidable.

The fees have proved a boon to the U.S. airlines, which will post a projected twenty-billion-dollar profit in 2014. To be fair, airlines are not just profiting because of fee income. Reduced competition, thanks to mergers, helps. There is also the plummet in the price of oil, which the airlines seem to have collectively agreed is no reason to reduce fares or even remove “fuel surcharges.” But for the past decade it is fees that have been the fastest-growing source of income for the main airlines, having increased by twelve hundred per cent since 2007.

If fees are great for airlines, what about for us? Does it make any difference if an airline collects its cash in fees as opposed to through ticket sales? The airlines, and some economists, argue that the rise of the fee model is good for travellers. You only pay for what you want, and you can therefore save money if you, for instance, don’t mind sitting in middle seats in the back, waiting in line to board, or bringing your own food. That’s why American Airlines calls its fees program “Your Choice” and suggests that it makes the “travel experience even more convenient, cost-effective, flexible and personalized.”

But the fee model comes with systematic costs that are not immediately obvious. Here’s the thing: in order for fees to work, there needs be something worth paying to avoid. That necessitates, at some level, a strategy that can be described as “calculated misery.” Basic service, without fees, must be sufficiently degraded in order to make people want to pay to escape it. And that’s where the suffering begins.

The necessity of degrading basic service provides a partial explanation for the fact that, in the past decade, the major airlines have done what they can to make flying basic economy, particularly on longer flights, an intolerable experience. For one thing, as the Wall Street Journal has documented, airlines have crammed more seats into the basic economy section of the airplane, even on long-haul flights. The seats, meanwhile, have gotten smaller—they are narrower and set closer together. Bill McGee, a contributing editor to Consumer Reports who worked in the airline industry for many years, studied seat sizes and summarized his findings this way: “The roomiest economy seats you can book on the nation’s four largest airlines are narrower than the tightest economy seats offered in the 1990s.”

Source: WHY AIRLINES WANT TO MAKE YOU SUFFER by Tim Wu, The New Yorker,  Dec 2014

The full article is worth a read.

There are many reasons why US airlines are able to what can be called as daylight robbery and still get away with it. Listed below are four of the reasons:

  • The airline industry is an oligopoly with a handful of companies dominating the market. Just four airlines – Delta (DAL), United-Continental (UAL), Southwest (LUV) and American (AAL) – control the majority of the market share. I have written articles before about the industry’s oligopoly structure which you can find here and here.
  • Since the industry is an oligopoly and not a monopoly, the state cannot prevent airlines from all the things they do. So laws like The Sherman Anti-Trust Act of 1890 that makes monopoly illegal do not apply.
  • As airlines are allowed by the state to merge with one another, competition is eliminated. Lack of competition is one of the main reasons why air travelers are forced to endure misery at the hands of the airlines.
  • Unlike in other countries, alternative forms of transportation is practically non-existent in the US. The airlines know this simple fact and take advantage of it. For instance, an American trying to go from New York to LA on the west coast has to travel by airlines. There is no direct high-speed train service between these cities that this passenger can take and avoid all the airlines. Hence unlike Japanese or an European, we are held “hostage” by the airline industry in our own country without us realizing it. This is sad since the US is technically a free market economy where competition among companies and industries is supposed to be exist. As a result everyone including Nobel prize winners, educated professionals, free-market believers, world-class doctors, media pundits, legal scholars, regulators, politicians, corporate lobbyists, etc. have to fly in one of the airlines when travelling from point A to point B quickly.

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Disclosure: No Positions