Global Stock Market Valuations: Which Markets Are Cheap And Which Markets Are Expensive?

Valuation is important when investing in equities. Investing in stocks when valuations are cheap not only offers some downside protection but also juices the return when markets soar.

The table below shows the valuations of major equity markets today based on four metrics:

Click to enlarge

global-stock-markets-comparison-dec-2016

Source: How low rates affect stockmarket returns, Schroders

The lower the P/E ratio the better. The sameee goes ffor CAPE or cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio and price/book ratio.

Higher Dividend yields are better than lower yields.

Based on the CAPE ratio, the US market is expensive. The value of 79 shows that the market has been cheaper 79% of the time than it is today.

The US has the lowest dividend yield at 2.1% while the UK has the highest yield. The US yield is lower than even emerging markets yield.

US-Mexico Economic Ties: Trade and US Jobs

The US and Mexican economies are highly integrated with billions of dollars of goods traded between the countries. In addition, millions of US jobs depend on trade with Mexico.

The graphic below shows the trade values and number of US jobs by state in relation to trade with Mexico:

Click to enlarge

us-mexico-trade-and-jobs-chart-2016

Source: NAFTA Works (Mexico Ministry of the Economy)

Also checkout:

The Top 10 Italian Companies By Market Cap 2016

The European Union may be plunged into crisis again with today’s developments in Italy. Following Brexit and the election of Trump in the US, the revolt against the establishment continues with Italians voting “no” in the referendum. The Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has resigned following the heavy defeat in the referendum. From a BBC article:

Sleepless nights and uneasy prospects – BBC Europe editor Katya Adler in Rome

EU leaders won’t have slept much on Sunday night. Angst about Italy makes an uncomfortable bedfellow and there’s plenty for them to worry about. Particularly in Brussels. Prime Minister Renzi was the only premier left in Europe with a vision for the EU’s future. Angela Merkel is too busy crisis-managing while much of France is in thrall to Front National eurosceptics.

But Matteo Renzi is no more. The self-styled reformer with his promise to stabilise politics and kick-start the Italian economy has managed quite the reverse.

Italy wakes up on Monday to the threat of a banking crisis, political turmoil, and a group of anti-establishment populists banging on the doors of government. Eurozone beware and EU be warned. Italy is the euro currency’s third largest economy and it’s in for a bumpy ride. And there are more unpredictable votes to come in 2017: in France, Germany the Netherlands and perhaps here in Italy too.

The No vote was supported by populist parties, and the referendum was regarded as a barometer of anti-establishment sentiment in Europe.

The populist Five Star Movement says it is getting ready to govern Italy now that Mr Renzi is resigning. “Starting tomorrow we’ll be at work on a Five Star government,” one of its leaders, Luigi Di Maio, said.

The movement, led by comedian Beppe Grillo, spearheaded the winning No campaign.

Opposition leader Matteo Salvini, of the anti-immigrant Northern League, called the referendum a “victory of the people against the strong powers of three-quarters of the world”.

Source: Italy referendum: PM Matteo Renzi resigns after clear referendum defeat, BBC

European equity markets and Italian equities in particular will be volatile over the next few days due to the outcome of the elections tonight. Value investors trying to pick up Italian stocks may want to wait a while until the dust settles.

It has been a few years since I wrote about the top companies in Italy. In this post, let’s take a quick look at the top 10 Italian firms by market capitalization:

S.No,CompanyIndustryMarket Cap (in Euros)Dividend Yield (%)
1Eni SpAOil & Gas Producers52.52bn5.91%
2Enel SpAElectricity41.56bn4.44%
3Intesa Sanpaolo SpABanks38.00bn6.57%
4Luxottica Group SpAPersonal Goods25.94bn1.77%
5Assicurazioni Generali SpANonlife Insurance20.49bn5.85%
6Tenaris SAIndustrial Metals19.57bn2.60%
7Atlantia SpAIndustrial Transportation18.51bn4.38%
8Telecom Italia SpAFixed Line Telecommunications15.51bn--
9UniCredit SpABanks13.75bn5.76%
10Snam SpAGas, Water & Multi-utilities13.41bn6.96%

Source: FT Stock Screener

Eni SpA (E) , the oil and gas giant is the largest Italian public company based on market cap. The ADR trading on the NYSE currently has a dividend yield of over 6% and closed at $28.75 on Friday.The next top firm is the electric utility Enel SpA(ENLAY).

Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (ISNPY) and UniCredit SpA in the top list can be avoided at this time due to the crisis in the Italian banking sector. The oldest bank in the world, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A.(BMDPY), may face collapse if a new government does not engineer a bailout.

Related:

Disclosure: No Positions

Who Pays More US Federal Income Taxes – Individuals or Corporations?

The US Federal government collects more taxes each year from individuals than corporations in the form of income taxes. This may be surprising to some people since the US corporate income tax is one of the highest in the world and companies earn far higher earnings as profits than most individuals.

The following chart shows that nearly half of the Federal revenues come from individual income taxes:

Click to enlarge

federal-tax-sources

Source: The Heritage Foundation

To put the above figures in perspective, in the fiscal year 2015 the total federal revenues were expected to be $3.18 trillion according to the National Priorities project. Out of this, individuals paid $1.48 Trillion in income taxes (47% of total). Corporations on the other hand paid just $341 billion (11% of total revenues).

Why do corporations pay less income taxes than individuals?

Though the corporate tax rate is 35%, most US companies pay much less.  This is because of the millions of legal loopholes that are available for corporations in the tax code. Using an army of corporate lawyers, tax attorneys, accountants, lobbyists, consultants and other professionals whose only job is figure out how to legally reduce the taxes owed by a corporation to the minimum possible. Unlike corporations most individuals do not have the resources to hire all these folks to prepare their taxes. In addition, many of the thousands of loopholes that are afforded to corporations are not available to individuals. For example, Uncle Sam allows firms to use tax-avoidance tools like a Dutch SandwichDouble Irish arrangement, etc. to shelter billions in taxes owed. As a results, corporate income taxes as a percentage of total federal revenues have declined year after year since the 1940s compared to individual income taxes.

Click to enlarge

individual-and-corporte-income-taxes-since-1934

Source: Federal Revenue: Where Does the Money Come From, National Priorities Project

GDP per Capita: Select Developed vs. Emerging Countries

Emerging markets have still a long way to go before they catch up with developed markets in terms of GDP per capita. This figure is calculated by taking the overall GDP of a country and dividing it up for each individual in the country.

Despite explosive growth in emerging markets in the past few decades, the GDP per capita in those countries as still low relative to developed markets. For example, Germany’s GDP per capita is over $40,000 but China’s GDP is still under $10,000. China was and is still considered one of the top fast growing emerging countries. Hence most people in China are still poor financially speaking relative to developed countries.

Click to enlarge

gdp-per-capita-developed-vs-emerging-countries

Takeaway for investors:

Because emerging countries have lower GDP per capita investors should not assume that people in those countries would be able to consume goods and services like those residing in developed countries. So for instance, though someone in the US may easily spend $4 or $5 for a cappucino at Starbucks(SBUX), the same may not be true in Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, etc. That does not mean nobody can afford to spend that much on a coffee in those countries. It is just the majority of the population cannot afford to spend that much on a coffee. Hence investors must consider carefully before investing in developed world companies that cater to emerging market consumers.

Source: 2017 GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK, Franklin Templeton Investments

Disclosure: No Positions