Two Reasons Why The FTSE-100 Has Outperformed Other Major Equity Markets

The British equity market as represented by the FTSE 100 Index has outperformed other major stock indices of this world so far this year. For instance, the S&P 500 is up 6% year-to-date. The main European indices have performed as follows:

UK’s FTSE 100: 9.4%
France’s CAC 40: -2.3%
Germany’s DAX Index:-1.1%
Spain’s IBEX35 Index: -8.3%

Note: Figures noted above are as of Nov 11, 2016

Compared to other developed indices of Europe the FTSE 100 has had an excellent run. So why did the FTSE perform so well relative to other major markets?

Two main reasons stand out in the answer to the above question. They are exposure to emerging markets and currency.

The FTSE 100 is the most exposed to emerging markets of all the major global indices. Multinational firms in the FTSE-100 generate about 27% of their revenues from emerging countries. The S&P 500 on the other hand earns only 10% from those markets. So as emerging markets have done well this year the FTSE has done well also.

One of the main impacts of the Brexit vote a few months ago was on the British pound. The pound has depreciated in value against other currencies. As a result a weaker pound makes the earnings of British companies from foreign countries  look bigger to investors who bid up shares.

So the key point to remember is that a bet on the FTSE-100 is actually more of a bet on the performance of emerging markets. I have noted many times before on this blog that big British companies have substantial operations in many emerging markets due to their deep roots there from the colonial periods.

Five FTSE-100 components are listed below with their current dividend yields:

1.Company:Diageo PLC (DEO)
Current Dividend Yield:3.06%
Sector: Alcoholic Beverages

2. Company: AstraZeneca PLC (AZN)
Current Dividend Yield: 4.94%
Sector: Pharmaceuticals

3..Company: Vodafone Group PLC (VOD)
Current Dividend Yield: 5.65%
Sector: Wireless Telecom

4.Company: British American Tobacco PLC (BTI)
Current Dividend Yield: 4.12%
Sector:Tobacco

5.Company: GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
Current Dividend Yield: 4.95%
Sector: Pharmaceuticals

Note: Dividend yields noted above are as of Nov 11, 2016. Data is known to be accurate from sources used.Please use your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.

Disclosure: No Positions

Comparing Procter & Gamble Stock To Competitors

One of the important strategies for success in building wealth with equities is to identify and own the right the stock in an industry. Owning the average or poor player in an industry will lead to lower returns for investors. In this post, let’s put this logic to test.

US-based Procter & Gamble Company (PG) is a giant in the consumer staples sector. Some of its competitors are Colgate-Palmolive Company(CL), Kimberly Clark Corp (KMB) and Unilever N.V(UN).

In terms of stock performance, PG has under-performed the above competitors in the past 10 years as shown in the chart below:

Click to enlarge

pg-vs-peer-stock-returns

Note: Data shown above are as of  Nov 11, 2016

Source: Yahoo Finance

A few observations about Procter & Gamble:

  • PG returned 30% in terms of price appreciation in 10 years. Competitors CL, KMB and UN on the other hand yielded returns of 107%, 73% and 45% respectively. An investment in Unilever would have earned more than 50% returns than that of P&G’s return. The other two companies performed even better.
  • While all three- PG, CL and KMB are American firms, owning the right company increased the return earned by an investor was much higher in the the long-run.
  • In terms of dividend yields, PG currently yields 3.23%. CL, KMB and UN have dividend yields of 2.32%, 3.28% and 3.51% respectively.
  • PG has the largest market cap among these firms with a market cap of over $223.0 billion. However in terms of stock return especially in the long-run bigger size does not necessarily mean better returns.
  • Since 1970, PG stock has had 6 splits with the last 2 for 1 in 2004. An investment of $10,000 in PG stock 10 years ago would have grown to $17,673.35 as of Nov 10, 2016 for an average annual return of 5.86% according to stocksplithistory.com site. In 10 years the investment had a Total Return of 76%. Basically even in a decade the original investment did not double.

Click to enlarge

pg-stock-return-with-dividends-reinvested

Source: stocksplithistory.com

However its peers fared as noted below during the same time period:

CL:
Total Return – 161%
Average Annual Total Return – 10.08%

KMB:
Total Return – 152%
Average Annual Total Return – 9.70%

UN:
Total Return – 116%
Average Annual Total Return – 8.03%

The reasons for the poor performance for PG are many.Some of them are incompetent management, lack of innovation, bad acquisitions, giant bureaucracy, etc.

Also checkout:

Disclosure: No positions

Knowledge is Power: Monopsony, Coal, Anti-Globalization Edition

For Reference:

zoo-bird-photo

The Top 50 Global Pharma Companies 2016 By Sales

The Pharmaceutical Executive magazine published its 16th annual ranking of the Top 50 Pharma Companies Worldwide for 2016 based on sales revenue in 2015. This list can be used as a starting point for investors looking to research into global drug companies.

The Top 50 Global Pharma Companies for 2016 are listed in the tables below:

Click to enlarge

top-50-global-pharma-firms-tabe-1

top-50-global-pharma-firms-tabe-2

top-50-global-pharma-firms-tabe-3

top-50-global-pharma-firms-tabe-4

Source: Pharmaceutical Executive

Related:

Earlier:

None of the top 10 global pharma companies are from emerging countries.However two companies from those markets – one each from India and South Africa –  have made it to this list.

Mark Mobius: Argentina Stocks Are Cheap

The Argentina stock market is one of the best performing market so far this year. The benchmark Merval index is up 39% year-to-date. As a frontier market Argentine stocks are highly volatile and most global investors avoided them until last year. Years of political and economic chaos made Argentina the pariah of the international investing community. However all that changed last year when a new government was formed under President Mauricio Macri and the country’s economy stabilized.

Though the benchmark Merval Index is up 39% this year, emerging markets investment guru Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group stated that Argentina stocks are cheap but raised concerns about liquidity in an interview to Bloomberg. From the Bloomberg article discussing the interview:

Almost a year after a new government swept into Argentina promising to loosen capital controls and lure foreign investors, Mark Mobius is betting on the country’s stocks. But he says the options are still limited for traders looking to ride the rally that made the Merval one of the world’s top performing equity gauges this year.

Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, which has $26 billion under management, says he will remain focused on American depository receipts of Argentine companies as long as rules require that portfolio investments stay in the country for 120 days, a policy that he says limits market liquidity.

“It’s difficult for us to invest if there’s no guarantee we can get the money out at short notice,” Mobius said in an interview from Dubai. “We invest in countries for a long time, but it’s part of our obligations to investors. The currency is already pretty stable, so it all depends on how things go with the foreign exchange rule. That will give more confidence to us and other investors.”
Argentina’s stocks have surged 41 percent this year after President Mauricio Macri was elected in late 2015 on a pledge to reinvigorate an economy damaged by years of government interference including currency controls and capital restrictions. Even after the rally, the Merval’s price-to-adjusted-earnings rating is just two-thirds of the level for Brazil’s Ibovespa.

Source:  Mobius Says Argentina Stocks Cheap, But Liquidity Still a Drag, Bloomberg

The five- year return chart of the Merval is shown below:
Click to enlarge
merval-index-return-five-years
Source: FT

How to invest in Argentina?
The simple and easiest way to access Argentina stocks is via ADRs or ETFs. Currently less than 20 Argentine firms trade on the US markets. Among the major companies, investors can consider BBVA Banco Frances(BFR), Grupo Financiero Galicia(GGAL) and Banco Macro(BMA) in the banking sector and oil producer Petrobras Argentina S.A.(PZE). The complete list of Argentina ADRs can be found here.

The Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) offers another way to easily invest in Argentine equities. The fund has net assets of over $88 million and has an expense ratio of 0.75%.

Disclosure: No Positions