A Year in a Word 2016

The year 2016 was a tumultuous year in our lifetimes to say the least. In UK, people voted to quit the EU. Americans elected a former reality TV star as their President. Earlier this year, the most important thing that everyone seem to worry about in France was what clothes should Muslim wear when they go swimming. No wonder the French economy is perpetually in the doldrums. These three events led to the creation of new words like Brexit, Post-Truth and Burkini. Other words that shaped the year include the derogatory term “Deplorables” that was used by the losing candidate in the US election to call people that voted for the winning candidate.

Anyway the Financial Times published yesterday the following graphic showing the 12 words that shaped 2016:

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Source: Year in a Word 2016, Financial Times

For the meaning of other words please read the FT article.

The Foundations of German Economy’s Success in 7 Charts

The German economy is the largest in Europe and is often called as the economic powerhouse of the continent.Germany has recovered strongly since the reunification of East and West Germany in 1990 and by most measures is a success story.

Deutsche Banks’s  David Folkerts-Landau ,Group Chief Economist and Stefan Schneider,Chief German Economist recently published a detailed report titled “Beacon of stability: The foundations of Germany’s success“. The following are some fascinating charts from the report:

1.Government debt as a percentage of GDP:

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Germany has one of the lowest government debt as a % of GDP relative to other major developed countries

Note: Germany is represented by “DE” (for DEutschland) in these charts

2.Medium and small businesses are the major backbone of the economy.

3. Manufacturing as a percentage of GDP is high.

4. Germany has a low market capitalization to GDP ratio compared to other major countries. As a result, many companies do not depend on the capital markets for financing. Other than the 30 firms in the DAX, only another 800 companies are publicly traded.

 

5. Germany ranks among top countries in terms of patents filed. This shows the country’s strength in innovation.

6. Germany has a current account surplus.

7.Debt levels in both German households and companies are low compared to other countries

Source: Beacon of stability: The foundations of Germany’s success, DB Research

Due to their aversion to risk, Germans are big savers. In addition, they also do not take on much. Hence the household debt ratio to GDP is just over 50% in Germany. In other developed countries this figure is over 70%.

Finally Germany has a strong vocational training program in education and equitable social security and cooperative social system. Basically workers and management work together as partners for success. Things like workers having representation in a firm’s board ensures decisions are made that are beneficial to all stakeholders.

Readers interested in more fascinating facts about Germany can review the full report linked above.

Related ETF:

  • iShares MSCI Germany Index ETF (EWG)

Disclosure:No Positions

Manufacturing Jobs as a Percentage of Total U.S. Workforce since 1939: Chart

Manufacturing jobs in the US have been on the decline for many decades now. Currently manufacturing jobs account for 8.4% of the total US workforce.

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Source: What Are the Risks of a U.S.-China Trade War?, U.S. Funds

Since millions of jobs have been lost over the year, it would be a herculean task to bring them back. Moreover many of these jobs have disappeared due to automation as well. However there are still opportunities to have more week-paying manufacturing jobs in the U.S. For example, the much-hyped Apple (AAPL) company makes almost all of their computers and iphones in foreign countries. Moving those jobs to the U.S. could be done either by the state or consumers themselves by boycotting its products.

From a post at FT Alphaville earlier this month:

Strictly speaking, it’s impossible to answer this question. Human societies are extraordinarily complex systems nobody really seems to understand. We can’t credibly say we have any idea what the world would look like today if we’d made a few tweaks over the past few decades.

That said, we thought it might be interesting to imagine what things might have looked like if the proportion of American demand for manufactured goods satisfied by domestic production had remained constant since 1990.

One potential interpretation: almost half of the total decline in manufacturing employment — more than 2 million reasonably well-paying American jobs — might be explained by imports displacing domestic production. (The rest would have been lost to machines.)

 There are lots of conceptual challenges with this analysis — a lot of ins, a lot of outs, a lot of what-have-yous, as it were. That’s because it’s unclear which (or how many) combinations of policies could have kept the import share of domestic spending on manufactured goods constant. These various policy combinations could easily have produced other consequences altering the trend of domestic spending and rendering the entire analysis moot.

For example, the share of American manufacturing output destined for export rose significantly since 1990. Had the US government imposed constraints on imports, the rest of the world might have retaliated with restrictions of its own. We looked at a few different scenarios, including one where the export and import shares were both held fixed since 1990, one where US manufacturing exports didn’t grow at all, and one where foreign demand was identical to reality. (This ignores the potential impact on American services exports, which in turn could flow through to overall domestic demand.)

Source: How many US manufacturing jobs were lost to globalisation?, FT Alphaville