Which Emerging Markets Are Vulnerable To Higher Oil Prices: Chart

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Brent crude for December 2018 delivery closed at over $84 on Friday. Oil prices have soared in the past year and continue to power higher. Supply issues in Venezuela and Iran are also adding further pressure on oil prices. U.S. sanctions on Iran will take effect on November 5, 3018 which will have more impact on global prices.

Rising oil prices have a substantial impact on emerging markets with some countries affected more than others. Countries that are net importers will be impacted adversely while oil export countries stand to benefit from higher prices. For example, if oil prices reach $100 a barrel oil exporters will earn higher revenue for the same amount of oil produced and exported. According to Bloomberg, Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Russia are poised to benefit. Oil importing countries such as South Africa, South Korea, India and Thailand will be negatively impacted by rising oil prices.

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Source: Bloomberg via We Could See $100 Oil Again Soon, But Not for the Reason You Think, U.S. Funds

Gold Returns in Various Currencies 2001 Thru 2017

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Gold prices are down so far this year. However gold as an asset class has returned positive returns in various currencies from 2001 thru 2017.

The performance of gold in various currencies is shown in the table below:

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Source: IGWTreport, Incrementum

The average annual performance of gold between 2001 and 2017 was 9.17%. During period gold has outperformed practically every other asset class in particular in every currency according to the above linked report.

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The S&P Biotechnology Select Industry Index Returns: Chart

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The S&P Biotechnology Select Industry Index is one of the major indices that tracks the biotech sector. The index is up just 8% YTD while the NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index has shot up over 23%.

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Source: S&P Indices

Overall Biotech stocks have performed so far well this year. Investors interested in the sector can check out the options available on the NASDAQ market.

European Stocks Are Attractively Valued Now: Chart

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European equities are attractive relative to their US peers based on cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) according to an article by Rory Bateman at Schroders. The following chart shows the comparison of valuations since 1982:

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Source: Can European equities play catch-up in Q4?, Schroders

A short excerpt from the above article:

In summary, we are encouraged by the recent rotation in the market favouring more cyclical value stocks and moving away from expensive defensives.

The overall market valuation remains attractive with the cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) trading 20% below historical averages. The massive performance differential versus the US has recently begun to close and we expect this to continue.

Markets remain susceptible to volatile periods and we would suggest investors be opportunistic and take advantage of this volatility to buy assets that become mispriced.

Are Gold Mining Stocks Attractive Now?

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Gold prices continue to remain stagnant with December futures for the precious metal ending at $1,187.70 an ounce last Friday. The price struggles to maintain levels above $1,200 per ounce. However investors looking to gain from a rebound in gold prices may find gold miners attractive at current levels. In an article last week Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors noted that gold mining stocks are attractive relative the S&P 500.

From the article:

Get ready, gold bulls: The precious metal could be close to finding a bottom.

The price of gold fell back below $1,200 an ounce again this week as the U.S. dollar advanced following another federal funds rate hike. It’s now set to log its sixth straight month of declines, its longest losing streak since 1989.

That gold’s not trading below $1,150 is, I believe, remarkable. There’s a lot motivating the bears right now. Besides a stronger dollar and higher interest rate, stocks are still going strong, buoyed by record buybacks and massive inflows into passive investment products. In the week ended September 20, investors poured as much as $34.3 billion into ETFs, taking year-to-date inflows to nearly $215 billion, according to FactSet data.

This makes gold mining stocks look especially attractive by comparison. Relative to U.S. blue chips, the FTSE Gold Mines Index is now at its most discounted level in over 20 years.

Source: Gold’s Bottom Could Be Investors’ Lost Treasure, U.S. Global Investors

On a related note, last week NASDAQ-listed Randgold Resources(GOLD) announced plans to merge with NYSE-listed Barrick Gold Corp (ABX) to create the world’s largest gold mining company.

I am not a fan of gold mining stocks. However investors interested in gold miners can consider the stocks trading on the NASDAQ and NYSE for further research.

Related ETF:

  • SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

Disclosure: No Positions