On The Importance of Dividends in the Long-Term Returns of Canadian Stocks

Dividends are important part of a total return of an equity investment. The contribution of dividends to the overall total return cannot be under-estimated.  Even if the dividend yields are small over time returns will be amplified many times over due to the power of compounding and dividend reinvestment. As with other equity markets, dividends play a key role in the Canadian equity market also.

The following chart shows the growth of $10,000 invested in the S&P/TSX Composite Index from 1976 to 2019:

Click to enlarge

Source: Morningstar Direct: January 1977 – December 2019. * An investment cannot be made directly into an index. The graph does not reflect transaction costs, investment management fees or taxes. If such costs and fees were reflected, returns would be lower. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Returns including re-invested dividends = S&P/TSX Composite Total Return; Returns excluding re-invested dividends = S&P/TSX Price Appreciation.

Note: The amount shown above is Canadian $

Source: The power of dividends, RBC Asset Management

A couple of interesting observations from the article at RBC Asset Management:

  • Dividend-growing stocks have returned  a compounded annual return of 11.10% from 1986 to 2019 relative to the 5.90% return for the TSX Composite Index and non-payers with just 0.40%.
  • Dividend-paying stocks have low volatility over time.
  • Over the last 42 years, dividends have contributed an average of 3.2% per year to the S&P/TSX Composite Total Return Index, representing approximately one third of the average annual total return.

The key takeaway is that by investing in dividend stocks and then by reinvesting the dividends investors can boost the returns on the investment substantially over many years.

S&P 500 CAPE Ratio Since 1872: Chart

U.S. stocks have performed extremely well so far this year until the recently one day big decline. However rising stock prices have also led to the expansion of the Price/Earnings ratio. According to Niels Clemen Jensen of Absolute Return Partners, US stocks are currently trading at a massive 32x earnings even with cyclical adjustment. Writing in the latest edition of the Absolute Return Newsletter, he noted in the past 150 years, they have been this high only three times as shown in the chart below.

Exhibit 7: S&P 500 CAPE ratio since 1872
Source: multpl.com

Below is an excerpt from the piece in the newsletter:

Past experience suggests that when the CAPE ratio is above 20x, one should switch the amber warning light on. When it goes above 25x, the amber light should turn red and, when it exceeds 30x, everybody should run for the hills. With the CAPE ratio now at 32x, now is not the time to take much risk in equities. That is at least the case in the US. Elsewhere, valuations are less steep, so you cannot necessarily draw the same conclusion all over the world, although a bear market in the US will have a meaningful impact on equities elsewhere.

Source: The Sad Case of TINA, Absolute Return Newsletter – September 2020

Caution is warranted with investing in US stocks due to the high multiples. Certain sectors and companies have very high P/E ratios as investors assume the best case scenario.

The Top 50 Global Pharma Companies 2020

The Pharm Exec magazine recently published its 20th annual ranking of the Global Top 50 Pharma companies for 2020. These companies were ranked based on sales in 2019. Switzerland-based Roche(RHHBY) was the world’s number one drug company. The second place also went to another Swiss firm, Novartis(NVS).  The next three spots were taken by American firms – Pfizer(PFE), Merck(MRK) and Bristol Myers Squibb(BMY). The only non-European and non-American firm in the top 10 list was Takeda of Japan.

The Top 50 Global Pharma firms of 2020 are shown in the tables below:

Click to enlarge

Source: Pharma Exec

Other notable firms in the above list include AstraZeneca(AZN), Amgen(AMGN), Gilead(GILD), Novo Nordisk(NVO). Abbott Labs(ABT) and Biogen(BIIB).

Related:

  1. The Complete List of Major Pharmaceuticals Stocks Trading on NASDAQ
  2. The Complete List of Biotech Stocks Trading on NASDAQ
  3. The Complete List of Major Pharmaceutical Stocks on the NYSE
  4. The Top 10 Pharmaceutical Companies In The World 2020

Disclosure: No Positions

The Concentration of S&P 500 Exceeds Late 1990s

The S&P 500 is no longer represents the true state of the US economy. The current bull market in tech stocks has further pushed the concentration levels in the index. A few weeks ago an article in The Financial Post noted that the concentration level in the S&P 500 exceeds the level reached in the 1990s during the dot com era. At that time, the top five firms accounted for 16.6% of the index. By Q2 of this year, the top five had a combined weightage of 21.7% as shown in the chart below:

Source: Russell Investments Canada

The S&P sector breakdown at the end of July, 2020 is shown below:

Source: S&P Global

As of Aug 27, 2020 the breakdown looked as follows with the IT sector amounting to nearly 28.5% of the index.

Source: SSGA

It remains to be seen how long the tech sector can remain at such high levels in the index.

Related ETF:

  • SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)

Disclosure: No Positions