Mexico Has Become The Top Trade Partner of the US

One of the beneficiaries of the phenomenon of “friendshoring” since the covid-19 pandemic has been our Southern Neighbor Mexico. Friendshoring is the concept of growing trade with friendly countries. When supply-chain issues became a major problem for companies recently many opted to try friendshoring by locating plants closer to home in nearby countries as opposed to all the way across the globe in China.

Mexico has traditionally been one of the major trade partners of the US due to its location. For years China was the top trading partner with Canada and Mexico always behind. That changed in 2023 when Mexico was the top trade partner of the US as shown in the chart below:

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Source: Friendshoring brings industrial-sized investment opportunity, Capital Group

In terms of products exported by Mexico the US, most are finished goods. For instance 75% of all autos assembled in the country are exported to the USA. World’s major auto makers such as Ford(F), General Motors(GM), BMW, Daimler, Toyota(TM) and Honda(HMC) have operations there. Recently EV-champion Tesla (TSLA) announced its plan to open a plant in Santa Catarina, near Monterrey in Mexico. The chart below the top export products from Mexico the US and vice versa:

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Source: Friendshoring brings industrial-sized investment opportunity, Capital Group

Manufacturing industry labor costs are lower in Mexico than China and Auto workers in Mexico also earn less those their counterparts in China. Hence the wage factor in addition to location and others are a big advantage to Mexico. As the chart above shows, Mexico is also a big exporter of other goods such as computers and appliances as well.

From an investment perspective, Mexico is an excellent choice for investors looking to profit from its booming economy. Currently about a dozen Mexican firms are listed on the US exchanges and a few trade on the OTC market.

Disclosure: No positions

Foreign-born Population as a Share of Total Population in OECD Countries: Chart

Immigration plays an important role in the economy of the OECD countries. For example, immigration especially in the illegal category is a major topic for both the parties in the upcoming elections in the US. So its important to review the share of immigrants in the population of each country.

Foreign-born population as a percentage of the total population is the highest in Luxembourg among the OECD countries. Luxembourg is an outlier as it has a tiny population and most of the people work in finance. Australia, Switzerland and New Zealand have the next highest foreign-born populations. The UK is in the middle of this list similar to the US.

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Source: The Migration Observatory at The University of Oxford

Hat Tip: The High Cost of Brexit by Niels Clemen Jensen at Absolute Return Partners

Can Big Tech Stocks Become Income Stocks?

Tech stocks are traditionally considered as growth stocks. They are great for growth but not dividends. In fact, most tech stocks do not pay any dividend at all and this has been the case for years. Investors buy these stocks with the hope of rising share prices and not earn a steady income in the form of dividends as with utility or consumer staple stocks for example. However that perception seems to be changing at least with some of the tech stocks especially with respect to the magnificent seven.

The current dividend yield on the S&P 500 is a measly 1.37%. Dividend yields on the index has been on the decline since the 1980s and have stayed at or below 2% for many years now.

Last month Facebook owner Meta Platforms(META) announced the first dividend ever in its history of 50 cents per share for a quarter. It also announced share buyback of an additional $50 billion. Shares of the social media network company shot up by more than 14% after-hours when the news was announced.

The bigger question on some investors’ mind is this: Are tech stocks starts are turn into dividend or income stocks? Meta is not the only big tech stock that pays dividends. Among the magnificent seven, Apple(AAPL), Microsoft(MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA) also pay a dividend other than Meta. Alphabet(GOOGL), Tesla(TSLA) and Amazon do not pay a dividend. It is not clear if they will follow the others in the group and pay at least a nominal dividend.

Though four of the big techs pay a dividend, the amount of the dividend is tiny compared to their share prices. The dividend yield is so low for income investors to get excited about. Moreover these firms spend few more of their earnings on buybacks than dividend payouts.

With that said, I had bookmarked an article that discussed the topic of tech stocks for income. From that article:

The income you might receive from the Magnificent 7

If you take the four Mag7 companies that now pay dividends, you get a simple average yield of 0.43%. That’s not much, even compared to the low yield currently available from US shares overall. While these dividends should grow over time, they’re unlikely to make up a significant proportion of investors’ overall returns in the near term.

While the remaining Mag7 companies could easily pay dividends, Amazon and Tesla have both ruled it out for the foreseeable future. They intend to retain all earnings to finance future growth. Alphabet has been far less categorical on the matter. 

The value conundrum

Investors have always had trouble placing a fair value on tech stocks. Valuations fluctuate and when they get out of line the goalposts tend to get changed. High valuations beget more talk of the rationalities of paying up for innovation and repeatable growth way out into the future.    

The trouble today is that momentum is the only game in town. America’s mega-cap tech stocks sped higher in 2023, while the rest of the US stock market bumped along the bottom. India’s stock market went up (almost) in a straight line, while most other emerging markets didn’t even make it onto investors’ radars. While that’s happening, value indicators have less merit. Until, of course, something upsets the party and then they’re tremendously important once again. 

So are dividends good or bad?

Traditionally, ex-growth companies paid dividends. Sustained high dividends generally meant that a company had reached the stage where shareholder loyalty was considered more important than reinvesting all profits back into a business.  

There’s still a sense of that these days, which is why Meta’s inaugural dividend may have raised a few eyebrows. On the basis of the company’s own growth outlook, the mature business argument doesn’t apply. But it might in the future. 

Apple’s growing dividends have confused some investors, certainly. In the past there has been talk of Apple turning into an income-growth stock as it matures. That’s overdone for sure, bearing in mind its 0.5% yield. In any case, a good total return is what counts, and if that can be achieved with a bit less risk than before, that’s all to the good.  

However, dividend payments can still sit uneasily with investors seeking the strongest possible capital returns. If a business is expected to grow quickly, why not put as much as you can back into it?  

The answer is these companies are throwing off so much cash, it’s become hard to reinvest it all to produce more growth. Paying a dividend puts some of that cash to work by reinforcing shareholder loyalty. 

Source: Can big tech become a new source of income? by Graham Smith, Fidelity UK

I agree with the author’s views. The big tech companies are making too much money and they do not find enough opportunities to invest the cash. Very few of investors in these stocks expect a dividend. Due to the preferential tax treatment of capital gains over dividends investors would rather love share price growth than any amount of dividends from these companies.

If these companies are implying they are reaching the maturity by paying a dividend its not to going to be too long before other firms rise up to the competition and dislodge these companies from the top spots.

Based on the last closing of $502.30, Meta’s dividend yield is 0.40%. This rate is hardly going to make a difference in the total returns an investor may earn buying at this price. Should the share price go up even more the 50 cent quarterly dividend would look even more meaningless.

So in summary, tech stocks are still growth stocks. Investors should not consider them as dividend stocks by any means. Investors looking for income are better off buying stocks from other income-oriented sectors than tech stocks.

Disclosure: No positions

On The Relationship Between Time and Risk: Chart

The relationship between time and risk is inversely proportional. The longer time one holds an asset the loss of risk reduces. This is true with equity and other markets. So the easiest way to avoid loss is to hold stocks for the longer term. Engaging in risky behaviors like day-trading will only lead to loss and stress. The following chart shows the importance of holding assets over longer periods:

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Source: Ontario Securities Commission

Related ETFs:

  1. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
  2. iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV)
  3. Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)
  4. iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD)
  5. Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND)
  6. SPDR® Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK)
  7. iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market ETF (HYG)
  8. iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP)
  9. iShares MSCI Canada Index Fund (EWC)

Disclosure: No positions

Wall of Worry – A Timeline of Negative World Events from 1990 to 2022: Chart

Equity markets have always something to worry about. There is always one crisis or another that pops up in this world. Not a single year goes by without a negative event happening. However the beauty of the markets is that they always climb the wall of worry to maintain an upward trajectory. Recently I came across the following chart that shows the timeline of all the negative events from 1990 to 2022. Most of these events caused worry to investors if the markets would crash and if they should get out. A few of these events include the Brexit, Global Financial Crisis and most recently the Covid-19 pandemic. Despite all these and other noted events the MSCI World Index continued to go higher and higher each year. Though the chart ended with 2022 data, if we extend it to 2023 or even up until now the chart would reach much higher records since markets soared last year and year-to-date this year.

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Source: The view from Barley Mow, Permanent Wealth Partners

The key takeaway for investors is that negative events should not be a reason to sell out equities. Markets have always a tendency to be volatile in the short-term when some adverse event occurs but they recover eventually.

Related ETFs:

  1. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
  2. iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV)
  3. Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)
  4. iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM)
  5. Vanguard Developed Markets Index Fund ETF (VEA)

Disclosure: No positions