U.S. Utility Stock Investors May Want to Switch to Foreign Utilities

Investors looking for yields and stable growth have traditionally preferred utility stocks. The majority of the utilities in the U.S. are regulated and tend to have near monopoly in the operating areas offer stable growth. However in recent years U.S. utilities are facing many headwinds and their stocks have not performed as they have in the past.

From Fear and Loathing for Utilities by Liam Denning in The Wall Street Journal:

Widows and orphans have reason to be pessimistic. That, along with their love of big dividends and regulated cash flows, is why they traditionally value utility stocks. Utility-dividend yields historically have tended to move with Treasury yields. As the latter fall—usually when fear reigns—utility yields fall.


That has been the case since mid-April. Utility stocks have rallied strongly, sending their yields down, as the 10-year Treasury yield has dropped from about 3.6% to a recent low of less than 2.9%. It stands now at about 3.2%.

If the economic recovery falters in the second half of 2011, renewed demand for Treasurys could, in theory, boost utility stocks further. But don’t bank on it.

The sector’s current dividend yield of 4.2% is 1.05 percentage points higher than that offered by Treasurys, compared with a monthly average of 0.13% since 1970. Utility dividend yields have often been below Treasury yields. Indeed, across that entire period, there have been only three episodes where utility dividend yields stayed above Treasury yields for longer than 12 months. The current one, which began in mid-2007 and really took off after the financial crisis, is the longest since 1980.

The author further notes in the article that 42% of S&P 500 utilities missed their earnings estimates in the first quarter and earnings are expected to drop this year.

Compared to their U.S. peers, many foreign utilities offer better growth potential. This is true especially for large diversified utilities and those operating in emerging markets. As the demand for electricity continues to grow in emerging markets such as China, India, Brazil, etc. utilities are bound to experience higher growth. In addition, many foreign utilities offer higher dividend yields than U.S. utilities. Hence investors in U.S. utilities may want to consider switching to some of the foreign utilities at current levels. The potential for earning higher returns is higher with these utilities despite factors such as foreign tax withholdings on dividends, currency fluctuations, etc.

The following 10 foreign utilities have dividend yields of more than 4.2% paid by U.S. utilities:

1.Company:EON AG (EONGY)
Current Dividend Yield: 7.82%
Country:Germany

2.Company:Companhia Energetica De Minas Gerais Cemig (CIG)
Current Dividend Yield: 4.97%
Country: Brazil

3.Company:National Grid PLC (NGG)
Current Dividend Yield: 5.90%
Country: UK

4.Company:Veolia Environnement Ve SA (VE)
Current Dividend Yield: 6.48%
Country: France

5.Company:Huaneng Power International Inc (HNP)
Current Dividend Yield: 5.7%
Country: China

6.Company:Cpfl Energia SA (CPL)
Current Dividend Yield: 5.40%
Country: Brazil

7.Company:Enel SpA (ENLAY)
Current Dividend Yield: 6.31%
Country: Italy

8.Company:EDP Energias de Portugal SA (EDPFY)
Current Dividend Yield: 6.95%
Country: Portugal

9.Company:Gdf Suez SA (GDFZY)
Current Dividend Yield: 5.93%
Country: France

10.Company:Aes Tiete SA (AESAY)
Current Dividend Yield: 8.50%
Country: Brazil

Note: Dividend yields noted are of July 8, 2011

Disclosure: Long VE, EONGY

Site Fixed !!

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IMF: Bank Capital Adequacy Ratios Improves Worldwide

The health of the banking industry as measured by the Capital Adequacy Ratios (CARs) has improved in all regions of the world since the start of the credit crisis in 2008 according to a report by José M. Cartas and Ricardo Cervantes of the IMF.

Definition of Capital Adequacy Ratio:

Capital requirements are designed to ensure that banks hold enough resources to absorb shocks to their balance sheets. A standard measure of the health of individual banks is their capital adequacy ratio (CAR). Introduced in 1988 with the Basel I Accord, the CAR is calculated as the total regulatory capital of a bank divided by its risk-weighted assets. The Basel II revision refined the calculation of risk weights and incorporated three major components of risk: credit, operational, and market risk.

The Basel Accords set the minimum CAR at 8 percent. Conservatively-run banks tend to have high CARs to cushion against higher losses.

The graphic below shows the improvement in capital ratios of all regions and select developed countries:

Source: Finance & Development, June 2011, IMF

In developed countries, banks lent money liberally before the credit crisis. Whether it was the now failed Northern Rock in the UK or Washington Mutual in the U.S. banks juiced up their earnings by lending heavily to the subprime mortgage sector. In addition, commercial real estate loans, home equity loans, credit credit loans and other types of lending boomed. After the credit crisis, banks in the developed countries have strengthened their CARs by limiting lending to their customers and shifting their portfolios to low-risk assets such as government securities.

The graph also shows the deterioration of the banking sector in Greece, Spain and Portugal.The CAR for Iceland hovered slightly above 12 percent until 2007 and jumped to more than 18 percent in 2010 after the painful restructuring of the country’s banking system.

The Top Five Trade Partners of Japan

Japan has the 3rd largest economy after the U.S. and China with a GDP of $5.4 Trillion in 2010.  The country has a population of just 126 million and the per capita GDP is high at $39,727 in 2009. However public debt as a percentage of GDP is very high at 194.7% in 2009. Tax revenues account for about 28% of the GDP.

The graphic below shows Japan’s Top Trade Partners in 2009

Click to enlarge


Similar to many other countries China is the largest trade partner of Japan accounting for about one-fifth of all imports and exports in 2009.

The graphic below shows Japan’s Top Commodity Group Exports and Imports in 2009


Japan consistently runs a trade surplus since its exports are higher than imports.

Source: Japan’s Top Trade Partners, Federal Statistical Office, Germany