Stock Trading Volume Continues to Decline On the NYSE and NASDAQ

Stock trading on the US exchanges reached a peak in 2008 from steadily increasing yearly since the bursting of the dot com bubble. According to an article in Bloomberg BusinessWeek trading volumes has declined considerably on the NYSE and NASDAQ.

From the report:

Both exchange companies are contending with similar forces: an overall slowdown in trading, the rise of smaller public exchanges such as BATS and Direct Edge, and the increasing number of trades being executed “off exchange”—either at wholesale brokerages or on private trading venues known as dark pools.

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The general public is already wary of investing in equities due to the recent credit crisis, continuing failure of banks, collapse of the housing market, flash trading, resurgence of high-risk taking by banks using complex derivatives, the never-ending European debt crisis and a myriad of other factors. Added to this list of negative reasons is the rise of dark pools and off exchanges. It is not clear how much markets are impacted due to the new ways of trading. So investors should not read too much into the trading volumes on the organized US exchanges.

Related:

Duration of Stock Holding Periods Continue to Fall Globally

Can the U.S. Become the Mecca of Manufacuring Again?

The manufacturing sector was decimated with the past few decades due to globalization. Millions of workers lost their jobs as companies moved their factories overseas where labor cheap and regulations lax, especially in emerging countries. However in the past few years labor costs in countries such as China, India and others have soared reducing the labor cost advantage those countries had when relative to the U.S. Labor costs in the manufacturing sector in the U.S. has steadily fallen in the last few decades and high unemployment rate since the credit crisis has made labor even cheaper. Hence many companies are actually building factories in the U.S. and some are even moving their overseas factories back to the U.S. in a new trend known as “re-shoring”.

In February of this year Caterpillar shut down its plant in London, Ontario and moved it to Muncie, Indiana where labor costs are cheaper. From the article Caterpillar Closes Plant in Canada After Lockout in The Wall Street Journal:

MUNCIE, Ind.—Bulldozing its way through a high-profile dispute over wages, Caterpillar Inc. CAT -0.52% said Friday it will close a 62-year-old plant in London, Ontario, that makes railroad locomotives, eliminating about 450 manufacturing jobs that mostly paid twice the rate of a U.S. counterpart.

Caterpillar’s decision, ending a standoff with locked-out workers huddled around barrels of burning scrap wood outside the London factory gates, may benefit another downtrodden manufacturing city: Muncie, Ind., where Caterpillar last year opened a locomotive plant and where it is trying to fill jobs at about half the pay workers in Ontario received. At a job fair in Muncie Saturday, Caterpillar will be offering jobs at that plant at wages ranging from $12 to $18.50 per hour. Wages for most workers at the Ontario plant are about 35 Canadian dollars an hour (US$35.03).

In addition to lower labor costs, companies are also benefiting from lavish incentives offered by governments to lure jobs and stimulate growth. The article added:

When Caterpillar agreed to revitalize a former Westinghouse electrical-equipment plant in Muncie that had been idle for 12 years, state and city officials provided incentives that could reach about $28 million, assuming Caterpillar meets its goals for adding as many as 650 jobs. Those incentives include tax credits, infrastructure improvements and worker-training funds.

If Caterpillar increases its investment in Muncie to replace the Ontario capacity, Muncie officials said it may qualify for further incentives. “We’re going to do all we can to help them,” said Jay Julian, chief executive officer of the Muncie-Delaware County Economic Development Alliance.

From an article in The Vancouver Sun discussing the decline of manufacturing in Canada and the resurgence of manufacturing in the U.S:

Canada has suffered a noticeable decline in manufacturing jobs since the 2008 recession, with employment in the sector falling to 1.76 million last year, down from more than 2 million in 2007. Today, manufacturing output in Ontario is one-fifth below the peak recorded in 2000, although it’s growing again after a sharp contraction in 2009. Even though manufacturing in Canada is in the midst of a cyclical rebound, as measured by both shipments and output, job gains have been few and far between.

The reason why Canada has become uncompetitive and Caterpillar chose to close the plant in Ontario is shown in the following graph:

 

Source: Is the U.S. economy regaining its luster?, Fidelity Viewpoints

Dirk Hofschire, Senior Vice President of Asset Allocation Research at Fidelity Investments noted in the latest edition of Fidelity Viewpoints:

A second development is we have had greatly improved U.S. competitiveness in the manufacturing sector. This is an area where some of the low energy costs for manufacturers is helping. The real story is that, over the past decade we’ve had limited wage gains, really strong gains in worker productivity, and the dollar has declined in value. All of these things together have led to a large decline in unit labor costs here in the U.S. As a result, there’s a big increase in our competitiveness in this sector, relative to other countries around the world. We’re starting to see evidence of companies making more manufacturing investments here in the United States, and even some examples of companies bringing production back onshore.

In summary, though the high tech sector, green energy industry and others have been hyped to be the next job engines it may finally be the good old manufacturing sector that helps the economy get back on track. Regions such as the Greenville/Spartanburg corridor in South Carolina are already emerging as the Mecca of manufacturing in the U.S.

Should You Invest in European Bank Stocks Now?

Most investors have stayed away from European banks since the credit crisis and the subsequent sovereign debt crises for good reason. Though European bank stocks rebounded last year and early this year, in the past few weeks they have fallen heavily due to the bailouts in Spain, political and fiscal issues in Greece and Italy and more recently France turning more socialist than before.

However research reports from HSBC and Nomura suggests that there could be cautious optimism towards European bank stocks according to an article in Euromoney. HSBC notes that international investors are becoming less negative towards Spain and Italy since they are underweight financials in those countries compared to all other regions. Within financials, they observe an increase in holdings of banks.

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Source: Are European banks poised for a rebound?, Euromoney

Quoting the Nomura research report the article noted “while lending from banks remains weak, this is due to a lack of credit demand from solvent borrowers that want leverage rather than banks’ inability to supply.” A survey of loan officers also showed that loan demand from corporations are expected to increase in the next two quarters while households will continue to reduce credit demand though at a lower rate.

From an investment perspective, among the exchange-listed European banks traded on the US markets, National Bank of Greece (NBG), Banco Santander (SAN), Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) and Credit Suisse (CS) are in the negative territory so far this year.

Investors may want to consider UK’s Barclays(BCS), HSBC (HBC) and Germany’s Deutsche Bank (DB). HSBC especially has a strong global footprint and is in a relatively better position than other British banks. Of the OTC-traded banks, Sweden’s Nordea Bank AB (NRBAY), Svenska Handelsbanken AB (SVNLY), Swedbank (SWDBY) are also worth looking into at current prices.

Disclosure: Long SWDBY

Why Asian Bank Stocks Are Worth A Look

Asian banks for the most part remained relatively unscathed during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. However that situation appears to be changing. According to a recent report in The Wall Street Journal, “Despite relatively strong economic growth, risks for banks are growing in Asia. Among the risks are a big increase in lending in recent years, rising individual debt levels in the region, headwinds from the European debt crisis and a slowdown in China.”

Source: Warning Signs Rise for Big Lenders in Asia, The Wall Street Journal

The article also noted:

To be sure, Asian banks are adequately capitalized, economic growth remains faster than in the U.S. and Europe, and nonperforming loans are rising from very low levels.

Nonperforming loan ratios are 73% below their long-term average in Asia, with some countries at 1% or lower, according to brokerage CLSA Asia Pacific Markets. CLSA has said it expects nonperforming loans to turn sharply higher this year.

U.S. banks are now stronger than European banks. However Asian banks are in a much better position than both U.S. and European banks. Banks in Asia are highly regulated and follow conservative business practices with very limited exposure to derivatives and high-risk lending. Hence U.S. investors looking to invest in foreign bank stocks can consider some of the Asian banks shown below:

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Singapore’s DBS Bank (DBSDY) and United Overseas Bank (UOVEY) appear on the World’s 50 Safest Banks ranking by Global Finance magazine and also in the Bloomberg Markets’ latest annual ranking of the world’s strongest banks.

Disclosure: No Positions

The Biggest Nuclear and Hydro Power Generators in Europe and Russia

The STOXX® Europe 600 Utilities index is down over 3% YTD (in terms of price in Euros) and is off about 22% in the past 52 weeks. In the past five years the index is down about 50%.  Comprising of 27 of the largest utilities in Europe, the performance of the index in the 5-year period shows how much the traditionally safe sector has plunged in line with the equity markets of Europe. Despite the erosion of investors’ interest in European utility stocks, long-term investors looking for decent dividends and stable growth can consider adding some of them at current levels.

The following chart shows the Biggest Nuclear and Hydro Power Generators in Europe and Russia:

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Source: Fortum, Investor/Analyst Material, May 2012

Some of the above utilities that trade on the US markets are listed below with their current dividend yields:

1.Company:Electricite de France SA (ECIFY)
Current Price: $4.18
Current Dividend Yield: 7.19%
Country: France

2.Company:E.ON AG (EONGY)
Current Price: $20.76
Current Dividend Yield: 6.29%
Country: Germany

3.Company: Enel (ENLAY)
Current Price: $3.10
Current Dividend Yield: 16.75%
Country: Italy

4.Company: GDF Suez (GDFZY)
Current Price: $22.42
Current Dividend Yield: 9.14%
Country: France

5.Company: RWE AG (RWEOY)
Current Price: $42.16
Current Dividend Yield: 6.25%
Country: Germany

6.Company: Iberdrola SA (IBDRY)
Current Price: $18.17
Current Dividend Yield: N/A
Country: Spain

7.Company: Fortum (FOJCY)
Current Price: $4.17
Current Dividend Yield: 6.31%
Country: Finland

8.Company: Verbund AG (OEZVY)
Current Price: $5.36
Current Dividend Yield: 2.69%
Country: Austria

9.Company: EDP Energias de Portugal SA (EDPFY)
Current Price: $28.62
Current Dividend Yield: 8.46%
Country: Portugal

10.Company: Gas Natural (GASNY)
Current Price: $2.90
Current Dividend Yield: 6.32%
Country: Spain

11.Company: Norsk Hydro AS (NHYDY)
Current Price: $4.54
Current Dividend Yield: 2.96%
Country: Norway

Note: All prices and dividends are as of May 4, 2012

Disclosure: Long EONGY, FOJCY, RWEOY