The Top 4 Greek Yogurt Brands

Greek yogurt was introduced to the U.S. market 15 years ago by Fage, the Athens-based privately-held yogurt company according to a recent article in Bloomberg BusinessWeek. Since then Greek yogurt held a small share of the multi-billion dollar yogurt market in the country. However in the past few years that has changed with consumers buying Greek yogurt more and more as they became health-consicous. In addition, the success of Chobani, a new Greek yogurt brand founded by Turkish immigrant Hamdi Ulukaya has made Greek yogurt a household product today. From working moms to high school teenagers to senior citizens, Greek yogurt has become a modern-day craze.

From At Chobani, the Turkish King of Greek Yogurt in Bloomberg BusinessWeek:

Chobani has made Ulukaya a billionaire, according to Bloomberg data. Five years ago Chobani had almost no revenue. This year, the company will sell more than $1 billion worth of yogurt, says Ulukaya, who’s the sole owner. Once a niche business, Greek yogurt now accounts for 36 percent of the $6.5 billion in total U.S. yogurt sales, according to investment firmAllianceBernstein (AB). Upstate New York, with its 28 plants owned by Chobani, Fage, Yoplait maker General Mills (GIS), and others, has become something like the Silicon Valley of yogurt.

The Top Four Greek Yogurt Brands in the U.S. are shown in the chart below:

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Source: At Chobani, the Turkish King of Greek Yogurt in Bloomberg BusinessWeek

Fage is a private company based in Greece and sells its products in many countries including the US, Greece, Italy and Germany.

Yoplait Greek brand is owned by General Mills (GIS). France-based Danone SA(DANOY) owns the Dannon brand. It is truly amazing to see that Chobani now holds 40% of the market share.

Disclosure: Long GIS

Does International Diversification Work?

Diversification is an important factor to consider when investing in foreign stocks . An investor can diversify based on a specific theme or types of markets such as emerging, frontier,  developed, etc. It is better to diversify between different markets and then different countries within those markets.  It is not a wise idea to invest all the assets allocated for foreign stocks in one type of market or a theme. Diversification between countries not only reduces many risks but also offers potential to enhance returns as one country’s economy may grow faster than the other.In addition, a few countries may not perform well as projected.

During the global financial crisis of 2008-09, international diversification seemed to be pointless as all markets plunged in lock step.It did not matter if an investor diversified across emerging and developed markets.The benefits of diversification across different markets or even asset classes seemed to be dead. At that time many articles appeared praising the idea of just investing in domestic companies and authors advised readers not to bother with going abroad in search of better investment opportunities. Some even suggested that investing in foreign markets was not necessary as many American companies earn a substantial part of their earnings from abroad.Those suggestions couldn’t be more wrong when considering returns in the long term.

In this post let me show the benefits of international diversification using the S&P 500 against select emerging and developed indices.

a)The following chart shows the 5-year returns of S&P 500 against the benchmark indices of three large Latin American economies:

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SP500-vs-Latin-Indices

 

Chile’s IPSA index (brown) outperformed the S&P 500(blue) by a wide margin in the past five years. Brazil’s Bovespa(red) has lagged not only the U.S. market but also the Chilean and Mexican markets. Once considered a must-own market, Brazil has lost its shine in recent years. Mexico’s IPC index(green) has slightly performed better than the S&p 500.  The key takeaway from this review is that certain emerging markets performed differently than U.S. markets and that one can achieve higher returns by diversifying among emerging markets. An investor who invested only in Brazil would have earned lower returns than someone who diversified their emerging markets allocation among Brazil, Chile and Mexico. Hence the benefit of international diversification cannot be understated. An investor who ignored Chile and just stayed with U.S. domestic equities would have missed the excellent returns from Chilean stocks.

b)The following chart shows the 5-year returns of S&P 500 against select developed European indices:

SP5000-vs-Select-European-indices

Germany’s DAX(green) has outperformed the FTSE 100(brown) and CAC 40(red) indices in the period shown. With Europe’s largest economy, Germany was less severely impacted by the European sovereign debt crisis of the past few years relative to other European countries.Compared to Germany, France  has performed poorly since the March lows of 2009 due to the European debt crisis and many issues in the domestic economy. It is interesting to note that Germany’s DAX has closely followed the S&P 500. As with the emerging markets example discussed above, an investor with exposure to just French equities would have had lower returns than someone with diversified exposure to France, UK and Germany. This analysis shows that there is considerable differences in the performance of different developed equity markets.

The key takeaway from the above discussion is that the benefits of global diversification is alive and well. Investors should diversify their overseas allocations between many countries and market types. A good split between emerging and developed markets with an added measure of a little frontier market exposure will help juice up the overall returns of a portfolio. Global diversification also reduces the effects of the various risks with investing in foreign countries such as political risk, currency risk, concentration risk,  etc.

Source: Yahoo Finance

Related ETFs:

iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund (EWG)
iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund (EWZ)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
iShares MSCI France Index Fund (EWQ)
iShares MSCI Chile Capped Investable Market  Fund(ECH)
iShares MSCI Mexico Capped Investable Market Index Fund (EWW)
iShares MSCI United Kingdom Index Fund (EWU)

Diclosute: No Positions

P/E Ratios of Emerging Markets

The Price to Earnings(P/E) ratio is one measure to determine if a market or a stock is cheap of expensive. P/E ratios alone cannot be used as a deciding factor in investment selections. However it can be used in conjunction with other factors to identify potential investment opportunities and markets or stocks to avoid.

The following chart shows the P/E ratios of the constituents of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index as of January 31, 2013. A few other emerging markets are also included for comparison purposes:

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Emerging-Market-PERatios

 

Source: Chart of the week: EM shares – the cheap and the expensive, FT beyondbrics blog

Chile is the most expensive market now while Russian stocks are cheap based on the P/E ratio. The Latin American markets of Colombia and Mexico are also richly priced now. It is interesting to see that Brazil is neither expensive nor cheap at current levels.

Related ETFs:

iShares MSCI Mexico Investable Market Index (EWW)
iShares MSCI Brazil Index (EWZ)
Market Vectors® Russia ETF (RSX)
iShares MSCI Chile Index Fund (ECH)

Disclosure: No Positions

Two Top Regional Banks To Consider

Investing in bank stocks is back in fashion as the industry recovers from the brutal effects of the global financial crisis of 2008-09. Slowly many of the banks are increasing dividends and are reporting higher lending. With hundreds of regional and community banks trading on the markets, selecting individual banks for investment is a complex process.

In this post let me discuss two regional banks which are good for long-term investment:

1. Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc (CFR)

Texas-based Cullen/Frost is a well-run conservative bank. Currently the bank has a market cap of about $3.8 billion and the dividend yield on the stock is 3.14%. The long-term and 5-year return of the stock is impressive.

5-Year return:

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2. Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK)

Bank of Ozarks is a southern regional banks with 111 offices, including 66 offices in Arkansas, 27 in Georgia, 10 in Texas, four in Florida, two in North Carolina, and one each in South Carolina and Alabama. Currently the company has market cap of $1.4 billion and the stock has a dividend yield of 1.57%.

5-Year return:

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Note: Dividend yields noted are as of Feb 15, 2013

Disclosure: No Positions

The Leading Countries in Merchandise Trade

The U.S. remains the world’s largest trader in Merchandise. In 2011, imports of exports totaled about $3.7 Trillion and the trade deficit stood at $785 billion according to trade data from World Trade Organization (WTO).China and Germany were the 2nd and 3rd in merchandise trade followed by Japan.

Unlike the U.S.,  both China and Germany ran trade surplus in 2011. This is because these countries are export-oriented and not consumption-oriented economies. The U.S. imports more goods from other countries especially China than it exports resulting in trade deficit year after year. At $219 billion, Germany’s trade surplus was 40% more than China’s as per the WTO global trade report.

The Leading Countries in Merchandise Trade  in 2011:

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Leading-Merchandise-Trading-Countries-2011

Source: International Trade Statistics 2012, WTO