Knowledge is Power: Banks, Gold Edition

Lloyds leaps back to profit, seeks dividend approval (CityWire, UK)

Six Years After Crisis, Banks Are Poised to Rule the S&P 500 (Bloomberg)

Frontier markets: A contrarian defensive play? (Trustnet)

Have we seen the worst of the gold stock horror show? (Financial Post)

Revolution hits the potash market: is this a buying opportunity? (MoneyWeek)

20 U.S. stocks mixing value, profit growth (The Globe and Mail)

Hidden pitfalls of leverage  (MarketWatch)

Global income convergence – myth and reality (Deutsche Bank Research)

Will China’s economy avoid the doldrums? (OECD Observer)

Chicago

 Chicago

Estacio Participacoes SA: Brazilian For-Profit Education Provider

In the U.S. for-profit college operators such as Apollo Group Inc fell heavily last year after the Federal government clamped down on the sector. Most of these operators had become diplomas mills handing out degrees that carried very little value. Abusing the Federal student loan program the companies in this sector signed up thousands of students and made huge profits. They even recruited homeless people to take advantage of the student loan program. Similar to the subprime fraud in the housing industry, this is another example of how government intervention led to disaster.

I recently came across a fore-profit company that operates educational institutions in Brazil. Estacio Participacoes SA (ECPCY) is one of Brazil’s largest private-sector post-secondary educational provider based on student enrollment figures.

From the company’s website:

As of March 31, 2013, we had 334.2 thousand students in our distance learning and campus programs of our undergraduate and graduate courses. Our network consists of one university, four university centers, 33 colleges and 52 distance learning units recognized by the Ministry of Education (MEC), with nationwide coverage, represented by 76 campuses in the leading urban centers of 20 states, strategically located close to the homes and/or workplaces of our target public of middle- and lower middle-income workers. We have highly qualified professors, advanced teaching methodologies and well equipped facilities, offering around 78 traditional and technological undergraduate courses in Exact Sciences, Biological Sciences and the Humanities. We also offer quality post-graduate specialization (sensu lato) courses, master’s and doctorate degree courses as well as diverse extension courses at competitive prices to aid in the professional qualification of our students and enhance their employability.

As a developing country, the educational sector in Brazil has the potential to grow significantly. Some of the reasons for growth noted by Estacio Participacoes are listed below:

(i) Brazil’s economic growth; (ii) high demand for qualified manpower; (iii) tax and regulatory incentives from the Brazilian government; (iv) increase in the purchasing power of the population and the growing availability of educational loans, both from the federal government (FIES and PROUNI) and from private institutions; and (v) growth potential among the youth from the middle- and low middle-income groups.

The company went public in the Brazilian market in 2007. In June, 2011 it launched the level I ADR Program on the OTC market under the ticker ECPCY. Each ADR represents one common share.

The ADR opened at over $20.00 in January this year and reached as high as $30.08. On June 5th, the stock split in the ratio of 3:1. Yesterday it closed at $7.92.

Estacio announced strong earnings for the first quarter. It enrolled 117,000 students in its various programs and had a total 334,200 students at the end of the quarter.In terms of financial performance, EBITDA was more than 50% compared to Q1, 2012 and net income came to R$66.6 million representing an increase of over 66% relative to Q1, 2012.

For more information visit the corporate site here.

Disclosure: No Positions

Knowledge is Power: Oil Chart, Best Developed Market Banks, Phoney-Money Edition

What I learned about investing from Gandhi (MoneyWeek)

Are U.S. companies ‘state-owned enterprises’ ? (Canadian Business)

Colonisation, the phoney-money way (Business Line)

Brazil’s Middle-Class Anxiety (Bloomberg)

Chart of the week: a picture of world oil (beyondbrics)

World’s Best Developed Markets Banks 2013 (Global Finance)

Sector Distortions Can Be Costly in Passive Investing (Alliance Bernstein)

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Niagara Falls, Canada

A Review of TSX Composite vs. S&P 500 Returns

The composition of U.S. and Canadian equity markets vary widely. As a natural resources-based economy the Canadian market is concentrated by energy, mining and financial companies. The U.S. on the other hand has a very diversified economy with companies operating in pretty much every sector from manufacturing to defense technology. Hence the U.S. equity market is made up of companies from many sectors.

In terms of equity market returns, the benchmark TSX Composite index has outperformed the S&P 500 from 2001 thru 2012 as shown in the chart below:

Click to enlarge

TSX-vs-SP5-since-2001

However in the past 5-year the S&P 500 has up by over 25.0% while the TSX Composite is down by over 16.0% since the global demand for all types of commodities fell heavily:

TSX-vs-SP5-5-Years

Source: Yahoo Finance

The following chart shows the performance of the two indices from 1970 thru 2015:

Click to enlarge

TSX Composite vs SP 500 Returns

Though Canadian stocks seem to track U.S. stocks consistently they have diverged widely in some years.

The table below lists the data used in the chart above:

Table Updated – Oct 4, 2020

YearTSX Composite IndexS&P 500 Index
1970-3.6%-2.5%
19718.0%13.2%
197227.4%18.2%
19730.3%-14.7%
1974-25.9%-26.8%
197518.5%40.7%
197611.0%23.0%
197710.7%0.7%
197829.7%15.5%
197944.8%16.8%
198030.1%35.5%
1981-10.2%-5.6%
19825.5%26.0%
198335.5%24.0%
1984-2.4%12.9%
198525.1%39.4%
19869.0%17.2%
19875.9%-0.9%
198811.1%7.0%
198921.4%27.8%
1990-14.8%-2.9%
199112.0%29.9%
1992-1.4%18.4%
199332.5%14.5%
1994-0.2%7.5%
199514.5%33.9%
199628.3%23.6%
199715.0%39.2%
1998-1.6%37.8%
199931.7%13.9%
20007.4%-5.6%
2001-12.6%-6.4%
2002-12.4%-22.8%
200326.7%5.8%
200414.5%2.8%
200524.1%1.5%
200617.3%16.0%
20079.8%-10.3%
2008-33.0%-22.6%
200935.1%9.1%
201017.6%8.9%
2011-8.7%4.4%
20127.2%13.5%
20139.55%29.6%
20147.42%11.3%
2015-11.09%-0.7%
201617.5%9.5%
20176.03%19.4%
2018-11.4%-6.2%
201919.1%28.8%
2020??????

Note: The TSX returns noted are in Canadian dollar terms.

Related ETFs:

  • SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
  • iShares MSCI Canada Index (EWC)

Disclosure: No Positions

Related:

Long-Term Returns Should Be Used With Caution

Long-term returns quoted for an investment based on decades should not be taken at face value. This is because such returns can be skewed over many years due to various reasons including bull and bear markets, economic expansion and contraction, geo-political events and so forth. Hence when reviewing a long-term return investors have to take a deep dive and analyze the factors behind the return. For example, a 20-year equity return of a stock in a sector is totally meaningless today as much of the return could have been generated during the dot-com bubble mania which is unlikely to occur again.

The following two charts show how long-term real returns can easily mislead investors. Real returns are returns calculated accounting for inflation.

Click to enlarge

Long-Term-Returns-Page-1

Long-Term-Returns-Concentration-Page-2

Source: 

Rethinking Portfolio Construction and Risk Management, A Third Generation in Asset Allocation, January 2012, Bradley A. Jones, Ph.D, Macro Investment Strategist, Deutsche Bank

At first glance, a real return of 4% per year for a portfolio of 60% stocks and 40%  for over a century sounds reasonable. However the reality is much different. The second chart shows that most of the returns were earned in the best 4 decades each of which is a one-time event. Though World War III can be started by world powers anytime it highly unlikely to start anytime in the near future. So the possibility of an investor enjoying sky-high returns of a post-war recovery are almost nil. Similarly the high-tech revolution that occurred in the 1980s and 90s are once in a life-time events that are useless to a current investor. None of the hyped up new technologies such as renewable energy, nano-technology, social media, internet 2.0, etc. are going to start a technological revolution and earn fantastic returns for equity investors like in the 80s and 90s.