Selling Stocks During Geopolitical Crises is Not Smart

Investing in equity markets comes with a variety of risks. One of the risks that investors have to deal with occasionally is the risk of political crisis events. Unlike other factors, these are beyond the control of any investors. Hence it is important to analyze and determine how to react to such events. Panicking and selling out during crises is not a wise strategy. According to research by Vanguard, past equities have performed well in the past geopolitical crises. After the initial sell-off stocks recovered and were in the positive territory after 6 months and also 1 year as shown in the chart below:

Click to enlarge

Source: Vanguard UK

So the key takeaway is that geopolitical events are to be expected in our highly interconnected world and selling equities such events should not be a strategy. Instead it is wise to ride out political storms and focus on the long-term goal of an investment. To take it further, it is smart move to acquire some companies on the cheap when other investors panic and liquidate their holdings. For instance, during the Brexit saga a few years ago many quality stocks were trading at throw-away prices.

Related ETF:

  • SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
  • iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV)
  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)
  • SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF (SPLG)

Disclosure: No positions

The Best Performing S&P 500 Stocks Over The Past 5,10,15 and 20 Years: Chart

The top performing stocks in the S&P 500 change over time. It is impossible to identify the winners among these 500 constituents of the index. This is one of the solid reasons to own a S&P 500 index fund instead of trying to pick the winners. The following table shows the best performing stocks (i.e. based on total returns) over different time periods:

Click to enlarge

Source: Charlie Bilello via Market Index

A few observations:

  • Two auto parts retailers – Autozone(AZO) and O’Reilly Automotive Inc(ORLY) appear in this list with O’Reilly present in all but one period.
  • Chip maker NVIDIA (NVDA) is the only stock present in all the four periods list.
  • While tech stocks dominate the list, stocks from ordinary no-so-popular sectors are also big winners. Examples include Tractor Supply Co(TSC), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Fair Issac Corp (FICO), etc.

Overall the key takeaway is that winners rotate and the best way to capture the gains of those stocks is to own the whole index via a fund.

Disclosure: No positions

How Have Foreign Bank Stocks Performed Year-to-Date 

The equity markets in the have recovered strongly so far this year. The S&P 500 is up about 10% YTD. But not all sectors are performing well. For instance, tech stocks have had a great run but the banking sector is having one of the worst years since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008-2009. Among the banks, the regionals have been hit pretty hard with the KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index plunging by about 28% YTD. The regional bank ETF SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) for example is down even more with a decline of 33%. This ETF tries to track the return of the  S&P® Regional Banks Select Industry Index.

Many of the individual banks are down deep in the red. Below are the YTD returns of a few banks:

  • US Bancorp (USB): -32.55%
  • Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB): -23.10%
  • Glacier Bancorp, Inc (GBCI): -42.0%
  • Huntington Bancshares Incorporated (HBAN): -28.0%
  • KeyCorp (KEY): -44.0%

Have foreign stocks performed better or held up relatively well compared to the poor performance of US bank stocks?

The following table provides the answer. It shows the year-to-return of foreign banks trading on the US exchanges:

S.No.Bank NameTickerStock Proce as of May 19, 2023 closeYear-to-date Change (%)Country
1HSBCHSBC$38.2522.98%United Kingdom
2Grupo Financiero GaliciaGGAL$11.5319.22%Argentina
3Banco Santander ChileBSAC$18.8018.94%Chile
4Banco Bilbao Vizcaya ArgentariaBBVA$7.0416.81%Spain
5Banco SantanderSAN$3.4215.93%Spain
6Itau UnibancoITUB$5.4313.38%Brazil
7Banco BradescoBBD$3.1812.15%Brazil
8Banco Santander BrasilBSBR$6.0411.32%Brazil
9Banco BBVA Argentina S.A.BBAR$4.3010.51%Argentina
10Itau CorpbancaITCL$3.517.67%Chile
11Banco MacroBMA$17.317.61%Argentina
12UBS Group AGUBS$20.095.96%Switzerland
13Lloyds Banking GroupLYG$2.295.45%United Kingdom
14ICICI BankIBN$23.075.03%India
15Banco de ChileBCH$21.844.27%Chile
16Grupo Supervielle S.A.SUPV$2.254.17%Argentina
17Bank Of MontrealBMO$87.364.04%Canada
18NatWestNWG$6.684.02%United Kingdom
19Mizuho FinancialMFG$3.043.87%Japan
20ING Group N.V.ING$13.013.75%The Netherlands
21Bank Nova Scotia HalifaxBNS$49.263.34%Canada
22Canadian Imperial Bank of CommerceCM$41.572.59%Canada
23Barclays BankBCS$7.922.44%United Kingdom
24Sumitomo Mitsui FinancialSMFG$8.331.12%Japan
25Royal Bank Of CanadaRY$94.200.57%Canada
26Mitsubishi UFJ FinancialMUFG$6.87-0.45%Japan
27Woori Financial Group Inc.WF$26.93-0.94%Korea
28HDFC BankHDB$66.67-2.81%India
29KB Financial GroupKB$37.14-3.54%Korea
30Credicorp Ltd.BAP$132.75-3.89%Peru
31Toronto Dominion BankTD$60.92-5.04%Canada
32Shinhan FinancialSHG$26.18-5.48%Korea
33Intercorp Financial Services Inc.IFS$21.98-6.27%Peru
34Deutsche BankDB$10.58-7.99%Germany
35Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A.AVAL$2.17-11.07%Colombia
36First BanCorp.FBP$11.35-11.74%Puerto Rico
37OFG BancorpOFG$24.23-12.43%Puerto Rico
38Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son LimitedNTB$25.14-16.70%Bermuda
39BancolombiaCIB$23.80-16.85%Colombia
40Credit SuisseCS$0.87-70.72%Switzerland

Some observations:

  • The best performing foreign bank YTS is HSBC (HSBC) and the worst performer is Credit Suisse (CS). With the acquisition by UBS, eventually CS will disappear.
  • The second worst foreign bank stock YTD is Bancolombia (CIB) of Colombia. At current prices the annual dividend yield is a juicy 10.44%.
  • Due to its high exposure to the US markets, TD is the only Canadian bank that is in the negative territory.
  • Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited (NTB) of Bermuda is not well known among investors and may be worth a look.
  • ING Group N.V. (ING) is a long way from its previous peak but has stabilized and continuing earnings improvements and buybacks should help drive the price higher in the future.

Note: The returns noted above are excluding dividends

Source: BNY Mellon & Google Finance

Disclosure: Long BCH, CIB, GBCI, ING, ITCL, ITUB, BBD, BBVA, SAN, BNS, BMO, RY, CM and TD