Outstanding US Corporate Debt, Not Cash Held, Is Important To Consider

Investors tend to focus on cash held by US corporations rather than their outstanding debts. All too often investors analyze and wonder about all the cash and cash equivalents held by large US firms. Every now and then the media also publishes a report on the cash pile that American corporations are hoarding within the country and also overseas. Cash held by US firms in foreign countries get more attention as supposedly they are unwilling to repatriate the funds to the US due to heavy tax burden imposed by the government. As a result, the story goes, that billions of dollars languish abroad in many tax havens or simply lie unused for any productive purpose.

Instead of focusing on the cash held, investors should be more worried by the debt mountain that American firms have built over the years. This outstanding debt runs in the Trillions and continues to grow year after year. The availability of cheap funds only encourages these firms to gorge on more debt even when they do not have any investment planned for the funds.

The chart below shows the top 10 firms by cash held:
Top Cash-rich US Companies

Source: Business Insider via Vestact

The above chart shows only one side of the equation. As mentioned above the debt held by companies is much higher than the cash held. The following chart shows the total outstanding US corporate debt by year:

Click to enlarge

US Corporate Debt Outstanding by Year

Source: SIFMA

Since the global financial crisis, ultra-low rates, have led to soaring debt levels. At the end of 2015, this debt figure stood at over $8.1 Trillion.

One way corporate America is taking advantage of cheap money is to issue debt and use the funds to pay as dividends to equity investors or buy back own shares to increase the stock price. This strategy is being played out when earnings are substantially down and nowhere near pre-crisis levels. So in a nutshell, though profits are down companies are able to create the illusion that everything is great by simply borrowing money to keep equity investors happy.

Leverage by US corporations is also rising according to a January article at Bloomberg. From the article:

There’s been endless speculation in recent weeks about whether the U.S., and the whole world for that matter, are about to sink into recession. Underpinning much of the angst is an unprecedented $29 trillion corporate bond binge that has left many companies more indebted than ever.

Whether this debt overhang proves to be a catalyst for recession or not, one thing is clear in talking to credit-market observers: It’s a problem that won’t go away any time soon.

Strains are emerging in just about every corner of the global credit market. Credit-rating downgrades account for the biggest chunk of ratings actions since 2009; corporate leverage is at a 12-year high; and perhaps most worrisome, growing numbers of companies — one third globally — are failing to generate high enough returns on investments to cover their cost of funding. Pooled together into a single snapshot, the data points show how the seven-year-old global growth model based on cheap credit from central banks is running out of steam.

“We’ve never been in a cycle quite like this,” said Bonnie Baha, a money manager at DoubleLine Capital in Los Angeles, which oversees more than $80 billion. “It’s setting up for an unhappy turn.”

Here is an excerpt on buyback programs and earnings decline from a report by Niels C. Jensen at Absolute Return Partners of UK:

Excessive stock buy-back programmes
The next one is one we all know about – stock buy-back programmes. Buying back your own company’s shares enhances EPS in the short term, which is typically rewarded by investors here and now. Take the U.S., where buy-backs totalled $1.1 trillion last year. The flipside of that is a deteriorating capital stock. Companies under-invest as a consequence of spending their free cash flow (and sometimes more) on buying back shares and, as a result, the capital stock ages, and it shrinks. Private, domestic investments, measured as a % of GDP, are now at the lowest point for the past 60+ years. Under-investing today reduces profitability tomorrow, and the extraordinarily low U.S. private, domestic investments therefore paint a very dark picture for the profitability outlook of the U.S. corporate sector.

Meanwhile, U.S. corporates are leaving investors with an illusion of improved profitability, but the true story is quite different. Whereas S&P 500 EPS rose marginally from 2014 to 2015, ‘proper’ earnings (GAAP earnings) actually dropped almost 15%. That is likely to come back and bite investors in the derriere at some point.

Source: The Absolute Return Letter, May 2016, Absolute Return Partners

Knowledge is Power: Commodity Bear Market, Tarnished Treasures, Misinformed Edition

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Punta Cana  Beach, Dominican Republic

Dividend Growers Beat Dividend Payers And Non-Dividend Payers Over The Long Term

When picking stocks to hold for the long-term it is important to not only buy dividend payers but also own dividend growers. Companies that consistently raise their dividends year after year or even every few years tend to outperform those firms in terms of stock price growth that do not pay dividends or maintain the same dividends. The capital growth is especially huge when returns are calculated over many years due to the effect of compounding of dividend reinvestment.

The chart below illustrates the phenomenal growth of dividend growers over the long-term:

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Dividend Growers beat Dividend Payers

Source: Dividend “Achievers”: Most Likely to Yield?, Franklin Templeton Investments, May 24, 2016

The S&P 500® Dividend Aristocrats® Index comprises of companies that have increased dividends consistently every year at least for the past 25 years. The following are ten constituents from the index that investors can explore for potential investment opportunities:

  1. Emerson Electric Co. (EMR)
  2. Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (LOW)
  3. AT&T, Inc. (T)
  4. Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL)
  5. Leggett & Platt, Incorporated (LEG)
  6. Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK)
  7. Kimberly-Clark Corporation (KMB)
  8. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
  9. PPG Industries, Inc. (PPG)
  10. Abbott Laboratories (ABT)

Disclosure: No Positions

Though US Bank Stocks Are Under-Performing Now, Future Looks Bright

The S&P 500 is down 1.67%. The benchmark index for major US banks, KBW Nasdaq Bank Index,  has declined more with a loss of 2.79% so far this year.

The chart below shows the 5-year return of the index:

Click to enlarge

KBW Bank Index-5 Years

Source: Yahoo Finance

Though banks are lagging the S&P 500, over the past 5 years the index has jumped nearly 50%. This is not surprising since banks were the most adversely impacted during thee financial crisis and have recovered strongly since then.

Moving forward, US banks have a better future even if the Fed raises the interest rate. Compared to a few years ago, banks are in much better shape and are reaping the rewards of asset growth and expense reductions. Currently banks are enjoying the boom in all types of lending such as auto loans, student loans, mortgages, home equity loans, credit card loans, etc. Rising interest rates should generate higher revenues and earnings. For instance, total outstanding credit card debt is reaching closer to $1.0 Trillion. When rates go higher banks will generate higher interest revenue from this debt mountain.

Hence from an investment point of view, investors can consider adding quality US banks in a phased manner. Relative to European banks US banks look attractive in terms of growth potential.

Note: You cannot invest directly in an index such as the KBW Bank Index.

Related ETFs:

  • SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)
  • SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE)
  • Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF)
  • Vanguard Financials ETF (VFH)

Disclosure: No Positions

CAC-40: Total Returns by Year

The CAC-40 Index, the benchmark index for the French equity market is down 4.4% year-to-date. In the past 10 years, the index is still in the negative with a loss of around 11%.

Overall on a average French stocks have yielded a positive return over many years. Since dividends account for a high portion of total returns in the French equity market it is important to review the total return and not the price return.

The following chart shows CAC-40 total returns by year since its inception in 1988 thru 2015:

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CAC-40 Total Returns by Year

Source:Why share they rise in the long term? (Google’s French translation), Yomoni

According to the article, French stocks as measured by the CAC-40 have gained an average of 8.5% since 1986, an average of 5-6% more than government bonds. Clearly 8.5% return per year is solid. However the returns are not evenly distributed as shown above. Hence the key to success in equity investing is to hold stocks for the long-term and let factors such as dividend reinvesting multiply the returns over many years.

Related ETF:

  • iShares MSCI France ETF (EWQ)

Disclosure: No Positions