Economic recovery is underway in most countries of the world. China’s economy was the least adversely impacted last year due to the swift control of the pandemic. However most the developed countries are now in a better position to grow their economies with the invention of the vaccine last year. After initial dithering and chaos in the vaccine deployment, developed Europe is now catching up with the UK and US in terms of vaccination rates.
The economies of emerging and frontier countries may struggle for a while since they haven’t procured enough vaccines for all their citizens. So with the exception of a few, recovery is going to be slow and take many months if not years to recover to pre-pandemic levels.
The following chart from OECD shows how long it will take to recover to pre-pandemic GDP per capita for select countries. Argentina’s economy is projected to recover to pre-pandemic levels beyond 2025. This is not surprising since the country is the basket case of how to mismanage an economy and had structural problems long before the pandemic. The pandemic only prolongs the misery for the country.
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Source: OECD Economic Outlook May 2021
