Performance of S&P 500 Index When Interest Rate Rises: Chart

The Fed has planned to raise interest rates this year. The forecast is rates will increase at least three times in the year. In anticipation of rising rates and a multitude of other factors including valuation concerns in certain sectors, US equity markets have turned very volatile this year. With interest rates bound to go higher many investors are wondering how stocks would perform this year. According to an article at Plante Moran, stocks have typically earned positive returns when interest rate rises though there were short-term volatility as shown in the chart below:

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Source: How do stocks typically perform when the Fed raises interest rates?, Plante Moran

Update: 1/26/22:

Related ETFs:

  • SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Disclosure: No positions

U.S. Equity vs. International Equity 5-Year Rolling Returns: Chart

US stocks have performed well during some periods in the past while their overseas peers have outperformed in other periods. For more than 10 years thru September of 2021, US equities have had an excellent run. However this outperformance may not last forever and foreign stocks may take their lead soon. According to an article at Hartford Funds:

 Since 1975, the outperformance cycle for US versus international stocks has lasted an average of 7.8 years. We’re currently 10.5 years into the current cycle of US outperformance, which suggests the tides may be getting ready to turn.

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The chart shows the values of the S&P 500 Index’s returns minus the MSCI World ex USA Index’s returns. When the line is above 0, domestic stocks outperformed international stocks. When the line is below 0, international stocks outperformed domestic stocks.  

Data Sources: Morningstar and Hartford Funds, 10/21.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. The performance shown above is index performance and is not representative of any Hartford Fund’s performance. Indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. 

US equity is represented by the S&P 500 Index; International equity is represented by the MSCI World ex USA Index. Please see below for representative index definitions. For illustrative purposes only.

Source: US and international equities have traded periods of outperformance,  Hartford Funds

Fact of the Day: US Equity Markets Are Down

The US equity market has had a rough start to say the least this year. The S&P 500 is down 7.7% YTD on price return basis and the Dow Jones is off by 5.7%. Tech heavy NASDAQ is performing even worse with the NASDAQ Composite  and the Nasdaq-100 falling 12% and 11.5% respectively.

Below are the returns of select indices:

  • Dow Jones Transportation Average: -7.5%
  • Utility Average: -3.8%
  • KBW Bank: 0.1%
  • PHLX Semiconductor: -13.0%
  • PHLX Oil Service: 14.9%

Consumer staples, energy and financials are performing well. But software, technology, consumer discretionary are in correction territory.

Market breadth is awful.

NYSE:

  • New 52-Week Highs: 8
  • New 52-Week Lows: 526

NASDAQ:

  • New 52-Week Highs: 22
  • New 52-Week Lows: 1323

Source: WSJ Market Data

According to an article in the journal this weekend, 72% of stocks trading on the NASDAQ are in bear markets (or down at least 20%) from their recent highs. More than 40% of the NASDAQ stocks have declined by 40% or more.

Related ETFs:

  • SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)
  • SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
  • SPDR KBW Bank ETF (KBE)
  • SPDR KBW Regional Banking ETF (KRE)
  • Invesco QQQ Trust Series (QQQ)

Disclosure: No positions

Nuclear Power Reactors Operating in the US: Map

The US is the world’s largest producer nuclear power accounting for 30% of the worldwide nuclear generation of electricity according to World Nuclear Association. However nuclear power is still the major source of electricity. France is the top country for depending of nuclear energy for its electricity needs. France generates most of its electricity from nuclear power than other energy sources.

Have you ever wondered where all the nuclear power plants are in the US? The following map shows the location of nuclear reactors operating and under construction:

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Source: Nuclear Power in the USA, World Nuclear Association