S&P 500 Intra-year Declines and Year Total Returns 1980 To 2021: Chart

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Intra-year declines in the equity markets are a common occurrence. At the risk of stating the obvious, stocks never only go up always. In any given year, stocks decline significantly though the course of the year for any number of reasons but end up the year with a positive total return. Stomach-churning volatility can shake the conviction of even the most patient investors.

The following chart the intra-year declines for the S&P 500 and the yearly total returns for the S&P 500 index from 1980 to 2021:

Click to enlarge

Source: Alliance Bernstein

During the period shown, the S&P  has had negative returns for the year less than 10 times. Moreover consecutive down years in a row are rare. The last time this occurred was after the dot-com implosion.

The key takeaway is that returns for the whole year is what matters. Not the intra-year declines.

Related ETF:

  •  SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)

Disclosure: No positions

Canada S&P/TSX Composite Index Annual Returns 1924 To 2020: Chart

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Stocks tend to yield a positive return over the long term. This is true in many equity markets of the world including Canada. From 1924 thru 2020, Canadian stocks as represented by S&P/TSX Composite Index have earned investors a positive return 73% of the time. To put it another way, positive years trump negative returns.

Click to enlarge

Source: 3 guidelines to keep in mind in volatile markets, Russell Investments

Related ETF:

  •  iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Disclosure: No positions

Why Invest in Foreign Stocks?

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One of the important factors for success with investing in equities is diversification. While diversification can be done in many ways, one way investors can benefit is to own overseas stocks in addition to stocks from their local market. This is because different markets perform differently each year and also putting all assets in a single country including the home market is not a wise idea. For instance, holding emerging market equities can boost portfolio returns due to the higher growth rate usually found in these markets.

Similarly one developed market may be more co-related to the performance of one sector while another may mirror the returns of another sector. For example, the Canadian equity market is mostly co-related to the performance of the energy sector. The Australian market is highly dependent on the mining sector.

With that said, some US investors may avoid investing in foreign stocks due to the belief that it is unnecessary as many large American companies derive a high portion of their revenue from foreign countries. In simple terms, the argument here is that why invest in a British consumer goods firm like Unilever(UL) when an American giant in the same industry such as Proctor & Gamble (PG) has significant overseas operations. This line of thinking does not cover the full picture and is inherently incorrect. To give one reason, the scope, number of countries and the culture of these two firms are different. Many of Unilever’s brands have a strong historical presence and popularity in former British colonies. This is not the case with the brands of P&G.

Recently I read an interesting article at Schwab on the importance of investing internationally. The author Jeffrey Kleintop supports his arguments using the example of Nestle and Coca Cola which are in the same sector. From the article:

Big companies in the same sector or industry typically serve the same global customer base. For example, U.S.-headquartered Coca Cola and Nestle, a Swiss-headquartered company, have the same geographic distribution of sales by region, to within a few percentage points. They both get about 25-35% of their revenue from the U.S., about 20% from the rest of the Americas, 20-25% from Europe and another 20-25% from Asia, and about 5-10% from Africa and the Middle East.

Coca-Cola and Nestle both sell beverages and snacks to the same folks around the world. This similarity seems to suggest that there shouldn’t be much difference in the performance of stocks in the same industry that are headquartered inside or outside the United States. But, in truth, there is a difference. Over the 20 years ending in December 2021, Nestle’s stock rose 550%, vastly outpacing Coca-Cola’s gain of 151%. Why? Because there are many factors that drive stock performance besides revenue allocation.

Source: Why Invest Internationally? by Jeffrey Kleintop, Charles Schwab

The entire linked article above is worth a read.

Referenced stocks:

  • Nestle (NSRGY)
  • Coca Cola(KO)
  • Unilever(UL)
  • Proctor & Gamble (PG)

Disclosure: No positions

Important Notice on the Impacts of “DR Law” on Russian ADRs

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The wild ride for the holders of Russian ADRs continues it many twist and turns. The latest update concerns around the decree signed by President Vladimir Putin on April 16 that requires Russian companies to remove their listings from overseas equity markets. This effectively means the cancellation of Depository Receipt Programs of Russian companies trading on foreign stock markets. BNY Mellon, the depository for many Russian stocks on the US markets published an Important Notice yesterday outlining the impact of this new law on DR holders.

Below is an excerpt from this notice on dividend payments:

The Bank of New York Mellon as depositary bank is not authorized under Russian law to claim dividends on the shares held on behalf of a DR holder. Under the DR Law, DR holders who held DRs as of the Effective Date might be able, after receiving delivery of the underlying shares, to claim unpaid dividends if they follow the procedure set out by the Russian Joint-Stock Companies Law for “unclaimed dividends”. No assurance can be given that such procedures will be available to former DR holders or that the Russian authorities will not impose additional restrictions on the ability of foreign shareholders to claim dividend.

The complete notice is shown in the screenshots below:

Source: BNY Mellon

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