The graph below shows the performance of New York and St.Petersburg Stock Exchange of Russia for the 50-year period from 1865 thru 1917:
Source: Capital-Flow-Analysis.com
“By 1910, stocks on the St. Petersburg Exchange had increased fourfold in value since 1865, compared to a mere doubling on the NYSE .”
Sometimes exogenous variables play an important role in determining the value of a security than any other measures. These variables are usually beyond investors’ control. So in addition to using many factors such as P/E ratio, Dividends,Book Value, etc. we must take into account the effect of exogenous variables on a security. In current times, these would include things like geo-political risks (war), weather (tsunami, drought),credit crisis, effects of globalization, etc.
Going back to our chart, the reason stocks on the St.Petersburg Exchange rose much higher than the ones on the NYSE due to the influence of Rasputin.
“The position of Rasputin in the power structure of the last Tsarist regime, was far more important to the long-term outlook of the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange than the price-earnings ratios of listed shares. ”
More fascinating stuff can be found here.
And yet, had you stayed invested in US stocks until 2010 you would have outperformed the investment in Russian stocks in the next period… 😉
Nice chart by the way. It is interesting to note how Russia, China and India have always been “emerging markets” for centuries, yet they fail to fully realize their potential due to political influences…
Yep.Thanks for the comment.
I agree.Despite its vast natural resources Russia has always been under constant political problems. China and India do not have much natural resources but they have huge populations. It is possible that both these countries will continue to remain as “emerging markets” for the next century despite China trying to become a superpower.